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RB Leipzig - Borussia Dortmund

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Match Info

  • Bundesliga - Round 23
  • Date: 21 February 2026, Saturday ๐Ÿ Finished
  • Location: Red Bull Arena (Leipzig) ๐ŸŒค๏ธ ...
  • Referee: Brand B. (Ger)
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    RB Leipzig Borussia Dortmund
    RB Leipzig Borussia Dortmund
    1 X 2
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    (Initially)    		 2.07 ↓
    (2.25)    		 3.95 ↑
    (3.88)    		 3.22 ↑
    (2.87)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

    • The best margin for this event is 2.6%, offered by

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    Current Win Probability

    RB Leipzig
    46.1%    		Draw
    24.2%    		Borussia Dortmund
    29.7%

    Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)
    42.3% 24.5% 33.2%

    Our Initial ML Estimation
    43.4% 25.1% 31.5%


    Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
  • RB Leipzig has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.8%)
  • Borussia Dortmund has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.5%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for RB Leipzig than the current prediction. (-2.7%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Borussia Dortmund than the current prediction. (+1.8%)

    • Who will win by Users?

    1
    X
    2
    45.9% 21.3% 32.8%

    RB Leipzig - Borussia Dortmund Predictions

  • Users Predictions: 61 users predict this event. RB Leipzig will win (votes: 28 - 45.9%). Borussia D will win (votes: 20 - 32.8%). It will Tie (votes: 13 - 21.3%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for RB Leipzig: 33.4% โ€“ 58.4%.
  • Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 11 Selected Experts predict this event. RB Leipzig (votes: 7 - 63.6%). Borussia D (votes: 3 - 27.3%). Tie (votes: 1 - 9.1%).
  • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:
    • O/U 2 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • AH -0.5 - Borussia D (3.14) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • DNB - RB Leipzig (1.55) (votes: 1 - 50%) .
    • BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .
    • DC - RB Leipzig (1.35) (votes: 1 - 50%) .
  • Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 16 Selected Experts predict this event. RB Leipzig (votes: 9 - 56.3%). Borussia D (votes: 6 - 37.5%). Tie (votes: 1 - 6.3%).
  • Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1
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    Lineups

    Starting Lineups
    26. BelgiumVandevoordt M. (G)
    17. GermanyBaku R.
      4. HungaryOrban W.
    23. FranceLukeba C.
    22. GermanyRaum D. (C)
    10. GermanyGruda B.
    14. AustriaBaumgartner C.
    13. AustriaSeiwald N.
    24. AustriaSchlager X.
    49. IvoryDiomande Y.
    40. BrazilRomulo Cardoso
    		  1. SwitzerlandKobel G. (C)
    49. ItalyReggiani L.
      3. GermanyAnton W.
      5. AlgeriaBensebaini R.
    26. NorwayRyerson J.
      7. EnglandBellingham J.
      8. GermanyNmecha F.
    24. SwedenSvensson D.
    20. AustriaSabitzer M.
    14. GermanyBeier M.
      9. GuineaGuirassy S.
    Substitutes
      9. BelgiumBakayoko J.
      6. NetherlandsBanzuzi E.
      5. FranceBitshiabu E.
    35. GermanyFinkgrafe M.
    27. FranceGomis T.
    11. DenmarkHarder C.
    39. GermanyHenrichs B.
      7. NorwayNusa A.
    25. GermanyZingerle L. (G)
    		27. GermanyAdeyemi K.
    47. AlgeriaBenkara E.
    10. GermanyBrandt J.
    17. EnglandChukwuemeka C.
      2. BrazilCouto Y.
    40. ItalyInacio S.
    33. GermanyMeyer A. (G)
      6. TurkeyOzcan S.
    21. PortugalSilva F.
    Coaches
         GermanyWerner O.
    		     CroatiaKovac N.

    Key Events of the Match

    • 1st Half (2 - 0)
    • 20', 1 - 0, Baumgartner C. ⚽, Diomande Y. (A),
    • 30', Romulo Cardoso 🟨,
    • 39', 2 - 0, Baumgartner C. ⚽, Raum D. (A),
    • 41', Lukeba C. 🟨,
    • 45+2', Bensebaini R. 🟨,
    • 2nd Half (0 - 2)
    • 50', 2 - 1, Romulo Cardoso (Own goal),
    • 54', Reggiani L. 🟨,
    • 64', Beier M. ↓, Brandt J. ↑,
    • 64', Nmecha F. ↓, Chukwuemeka C. ↑,
    • 65', Reggiani L. ↓, Couto Y. ↑,
    • 65', Schlager X. ↓, Nusa A. ↑,
    • 69', Ryerson J. 🟨,
    • 72', Guirassy S. ↓, Silva F. ↑,
    • 76', Sabitzer M. ↓, Adeyemi K. ↑,
    • 78', Silva F. 🟨,
    • 81', Gruda B. ↓, Banzuzi E. ↑,
    • 81', Romulo Cardoso ↓, Harder C. ↑,
    • 82', Baku R. ↓, Henrichs B. ↑,
    • 90+2', Raum D. 🟨,
    • 90+4', Diomande Y. ↓, Finkgrafe M. ↑,
    • 90+5', 2 - 2, Silva F. ⚽, Adeyemi K. (A),

    Preview

  • One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Europa League (League phase: ) and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )).
  • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, RB Leipzig won 3.
  • Recent performances by RB Leipzig have been up and down (last 5 games: 1 wins).
  • Borussia D is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins โ€“ 4).
  • Recently, Borussia D has had a series of home games.
  • RB Leipzig will hold a modest advantage in this match.
  • There will not play in RB Leipzig: Gebel V. (Knee Injury) Gulacsi P. (Knee Injury) Nedeljkovic K. (Back Injury) Ouedraogo A. (Knee Injury) Sani S. (Ankle Injury)
  • There will not play in Borussia D: Can E. (Groin Injury) Mane F. (Thigh Injury) Schlotterbeck N. (Muscle Injury) Sule N. (Thigh Injury)
  • In the last 20 head-to-head matches, RB Leipzig won 8 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 35:34. (average 1.8:1.7).
  • Including home matches between the teams, RB Leipzig won 5 matches, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 16:13. (average 1.6:1.3).

    • Standings

    PlWDLDiffPts
    2Dortmund752012:4817
    5RB Leipzig740320:11912

    Outrights of German Bundesliga for now
    Dortmund: 7.11% RB Leipzig: 2.15%
    Form
    ✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;
    - RB Leipzig
    German Bundesliga
    15.02.26 RB Leipzig - Wolfsburg 2:2 ✺
    German DFB Pokal
    11.02.26 Bayern Munich - RB Leipzig 2:0 ✺
    German Bundesliga
    08.02.26 Kรถln - RB Leipzig 1:2 ✺
    31.01.26 RB Leipzig - Mainz 1:2 ✺
    27.01.26 St. Pauli - RB Leipzig 1:1 ✺
    Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2
    TLWLT
    - Borussia Dortmund
    UEFA Champions League
    17.02.26 Borussia Dortmund - Atalanta 2:0 ✺
    German Bundesliga
    13.02.26 Borussia Dortmund - Mainz 4:0 ✺
    07.02.26 Wolfsburg - Borussia Dortmund 1:2 ✺
    01.02.26 Borussia Dortmund - Heidenheim 3:2 ✺
    UEFA Champions League
    28.01.26 Borussia Dortmund - Inter Milan 0:2 ✺
    Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.7
    WWWWL
    Latest Head to Head
    German Bundesliga
    04.10.25 Borussia Dortmund - RB Leipzig 1:1
    15.03.25 RB Leipzig - Borussia Dortmund 2:0
    02.11.24 Borussia Dortmund - RB Leipzig 2:1
    27.04.24 RB Leipzig - Borussia Dortmund 4:1
    09.12.23 Borussia Dortmund - RB Leipzig 2:3
    German DFB Pokal
    05.04.23 RB Leipzig - Borussia Dortmund 2:0
    German Bundesliga
    03.03.23 Borussia Dortmund - RB Leipzig 2:1
    Upcoming Matches
    ✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;
    - RB Leipzig
    UEFA Champions League
    04.11.26 RB Leipzig - Manchester City ✺
    German Bundesliga
    31.10.26 Schalke 04 - RB Leipzig ✺
    - Borussia Dortmund
    UEFA Champions League
    04.11.26 Borussia Dortmund - Betis ✺
    German Bundesliga
    31.10.26 Bayern Munich - Borussia Dortmund ✺

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