Match Info

Bundesliga - Round 23

Date: 21 February 2026, Saturday

Location: Red Bull Arena (Leipzig)

Referee: Brand B. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	RB Leipzig		Borussia Dortmund

	1	X	2
	1.91	3.9	3.5	Watch
	2.2	3.9	2.85
	1.95	3.95	3.45	Watch
	2.2	4.09	3.06
	2.11	3.99	3.26	Watch
	1.95	3.75	3.3
	2.04	4.03	3.42	Watch
	2.2	4	2.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.07 ↓ (2.25)	3.95 ↑ (3.88)	3.22 ↑ (2.87)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 2.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

RB Leipzig
46.1%

Draw
24.2%

Borussia Dortmund
29.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.3%

24.5%

33.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.6%

25.8%

31.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

RB Leipzig has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.8%)

Borussia Dortmund has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for RB Leipzig than the current prediction. (-1.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Borussia Dortmund than the current prediction. (+1.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
45.9%	21.3%	32.8%

RB Leipzig - Borussia Dortmund Predictions

Users Predictions: 61 users predict this event. RB Leipzig will win (votes: 28 - 45.9%). Borussia D will win (votes: 20 - 32.8%). It will Tie (votes: 13 - 21.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for RB Leipzig: 33.4% – 58.4%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 11 Selected Experts predict this event. RB Leipzig (votes: 7 - 63.6%). Borussia D (votes: 3 - 27.3%). Tie (votes: 1 - 9.1%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.5 - Borussia D (3.14) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - RB Leipzig (1.55) (votes: 1 - 50%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

DC - RB Leipzig (1.35) (votes: 1 - 50%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 16 Selected Experts predict this event. RB Leipzig (votes: 9 - 56.3%). Borussia D (votes: 6 - 37.5%). Tie (votes: 1 - 6.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
26. Vandevoordt M. (G) 17. Baku R. 4. Orban W. 23. Lukeba C. 22. Raum D. (C) 10. Gruda B. 14. Baumgartner C. 13. Seiwald N. 24. Schlager X. 49. Diomande Y. 40. Romulo Cardoso	1. Kobel G. (C) 49. Reggiani L. 3. Anton W. 5. Bensebaini R. 26. Ryerson J. 7. Bellingham J. 8. Nmecha F. 24. Svensson D. 20. Sabitzer M. 14. Beier M. 9. Guirassy S.
Substitutes
9. Bakayoko J. 6. Banzuzi E. 5. Bitshiabu E. 35. Finkgrafe M. 27. Gomis T. 11. Harder C. 39. Henrichs B. 7. Nusa A. 25. Zingerle L. (G)	27. Adeyemi K. 47. Benkara E. 10. Brandt J. 17. Chukwuemeka C. 2. Couto Y. 40. Inacio S. 33. Meyer A. (G) 6. Ozcan S. 21. Silva F.
Coaches
Werner O.	Kovac N.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
20', 1 - 0, Baumgartner C. ⚽, Diomande Y. (A),
30', Romulo Cardoso 🟨,
39', 2 - 0, Baumgartner C. ⚽, Raum D. (A),
41', Lukeba C. 🟨,
45+2', Bensebaini R. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
50', 2 - 1, Romulo Cardoso (Own goal),
54', Reggiani L. 🟨,
64', Beier M. ↓, Brandt J. ↑,
64', Nmecha F. ↓, Chukwuemeka C. ↑,
65', Reggiani L. ↓, Couto Y. ↑,
65', Schlager X. ↓, Nusa A. ↑,
69', Ryerson J. 🟨,
72', Guirassy S. ↓, Silva F. ↑,
76', Sabitzer M. ↓, Adeyemi K. ↑,
78', Silva F. 🟨,
81', Gruda B. ↓, Banzuzi E. ↑,
81', Romulo Cardoso ↓, Harder C. ↑,
82', Baku R. ↓, Henrichs B. ↑,
90+2', Raum D. 🟨,
90+4', Diomande Y. ↓, Finkgrafe M. ↑,
90+5', 2 - 2, Silva F. ⚽, Adeyemi K. (A),

Preview

One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Europa League (League phase: ) and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, RB Leipzig won 3.

Recent performances by RB Leipzig have been up and down (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Borussia D is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Recently, Borussia D has had a series of home games.

RB Leipzig will hold a modest advantage in this match.

There will not play in RB Leipzig: Gebel V. (Knee Injury) Gulacsi P. (Knee Injury) Nedeljkovic K. (Back Injury) Ouedraogo A. (Knee Injury) Sani S. (Ankle Injury)

There will not play in Borussia D: Can E. (Groin Injury) Mane F. (Thigh Injury) Schlotterbeck N. (Muscle Injury) Sule N. (Thigh Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, RB Leipzig won 8 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 35:34. (average 1.8:1.7).

Including home matches between the teams, RB Leipzig won 5 matches, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 16:13. (average 1.6:1.3).

Outrights of German Bundesliga for now

Dortmund: 9.23% RB Leipzig: 2.84%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Dortmund	4	4	0	0	9:2	7	12
9	RB Leipzig	4	2	0	2	9:5	4	6

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- RB Leipzig
German Bundesliga
15.02.26	RB Leipzig - Wolfsburg	2:2 ✺
German DFB Pokal
11.02.26	Bayern Munich - RB Leipzig	2:0 ✺
German Bundesliga
08.02.26	Köln - RB Leipzig	1:2 ✺
31.01.26	RB Leipzig - Mainz	1:2 ✺
27.01.26	St. Pauli - RB Leipzig	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 TLWLT
- Borussia Dortmund
UEFA Champions League
17.02.26	Borussia Dortmund - Atalanta	2:0 ✺
German Bundesliga
13.02.26	Borussia Dortmund - Mainz	4:0 ✺
07.02.26	Wolfsburg - Borussia Dortmund	1:2 ✺
01.02.26	Borussia Dortmund - Heidenheim	3:2 ✺
UEFA Champions League
28.01.26	Borussia Dortmund - Inter Milan	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.7 WWWWL

Latest Head to Head

German Bundesliga
04.10.25	Borussia Dortmund - RB Leipzig	1:1
15.03.25	RB Leipzig - Borussia Dortmund	2:0
02.11.24	Borussia Dortmund - RB Leipzig	2:1
27.04.24	RB Leipzig - Borussia Dortmund	4:1
09.12.23	Borussia Dortmund - RB Leipzig	2:3
German DFB Pokal
05.04.23	RB Leipzig - Borussia Dortmund	2:0
German Bundesliga
03.03.23	Borussia Dortmund - RB Leipzig	2:1

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