Match Info

Bundesliga - Round 22

Date: 13 February 2026, Friday

Location: Signal Iduna Park (Dortmund)

Referee: Welz T. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	Azam Sports 2, CANAL+ Sport 1, StarTimes App, Startimes World Football, ZAP
Angola	Z Sports 2
Argentina	Disney+
Armenia	Fast Sports 1, Fast Sports, Setanta Sports 2
Australia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2
Austria	RTL, Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria Top Event, Sky Sport Bundesliga 1
Azerbaijan	Setanta Sports 2
Belgium	Play Sports 1
Brazil	Claro TV+, Globoplay, Sky+, SporTV, Vivo Play, Xsports, Zapping
Bulgaria	Diema Sport 3, Play Diema Xtra
Canada	DAZN Canada, OneSoccer
China	Migu, QQ Sports
Croatia	SportKlub 3
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 3, Oneplay
Denmark	TV3 MAX, Viaplay
Europe	Setanta Sports 2 Baltic
Finland	Veikkaus TV, Viaplay 3 Urheilu, Viaplay, V Sport Fotbool
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2, Free
Georgia	Setanta Sports 2
Germany	RTL, Sky Go Germany, Sky Sport Bundesliga 1, Sky Sport Bundesliga UHD, Sky Sport Top Event, WOW
Greece	Nova Sports 3
Hong-kong	beIN Sports 2, beIN SPORTS MAX, M Plus Live, Now Player
Hungary	Arena 4
Iceland	Viaplay
India	Sony LIV, Vision+
Indonesia	K-Vision, MNC Soccer Channel
Iran	IRIB Varzesh
Israel	Sport 1
Japan	DAZN Japan
Kazakhstan	Setanta Sports 2
Kyrgyzstan	Setanta Sports 2
Laos	beIN Connect
Malaysia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, beIN SPORTS MAX, Sooka
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 5
Mexico	Izzi TV, Sky Sport
Moldova	Setanta Sports 2
Mongolia	Premier Sports 5
Netherlands	Viaplay
New-zealand	beIN Connect
North-central-america	Sky Sports Norte
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO
Norway	Viaplay, V Sport 1
Pakistan	Tapmad
Peru	Disney+
Philippines	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, beIN SPORTS MAX
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Portugal	DAZN 1, DAZN / App
Romania	Digi Sport 3, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 4
Russia	Okko Sport
Saudi-arabia	MBC Shahid, Shahid
Serbia	Arena Sport 1
Singapore	beIN Sports 3, beIN SPORTS MAX
Slovakia	Nova Sport 3, Voyo
Slovenia	Sport TV1
South-africa	SABC Plus, SABC Sport
South-korea	Coupang Play
Spain	DAZN Espana
Sweden	Viaplay, V Sport Fotbool
Switzerland	RTL, Sky Sport Bundesliga 1, Sky Sport Top Event, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Tajikistan	Setanta Sports 2
Thailand	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, beIN SPORTS MAX
Turkey	S Sport+, Tivibu Spor 1
Turkmenistan	Setanta Sports 2
Ukraine	Kyivstar TV, Setanta Sports+
United-kingdom	BBC iPlayer, BBC Sport
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+
Uzbekistan	Setanta Sports 2
Venezuela	Disney+
Vietnam	TV 360
World	Onefootball


	Borussia Dortmund		Mainz

	1	X	2
	1.65	4.2	4.75	Watch
	1.49	4.6	6
	1.65	4.25	4.7	Watch
	1.67	4.25	5.11
	1.68	4.28	4.96	Watch
	1.62	3.9	4.6
	1.66	4.3	5.11	Watch
	1.69	4.2	4.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.64 ↑ (1.52)	4.25 ↓ (4.64)	4.97 ↓ (5.54)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Borussia Dortmund
58.3%

Draw
22.5%

Mainz
19.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

62.4%

20.4%

17.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.6%

19.8%

17.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Borussia Dortmund has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.1%)

Mainz has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Borussia Dortmund than the current prediction. (+2.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mainz than the current prediction. (-1.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
85.5%	7.2%	7.2%

Borussia Dortmund - Mainz Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Mainz (4.09) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 7.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

1X2, 1st Half - Borussia D (1.99) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 66.7%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 5 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

AH -1 - Borussia D (2.10) (votes: 1 - 50%) .

DC - Mainz (2.19) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 1, 2nd Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Borussia Dortmund will win (71 of 82 users predict this - 86.59%).
Confidence interval (95%): 79.21% – 93.97%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Borussia Dortmund will win (22 of 22 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 29 Selected Experts predict this event. Borussia D (votes: 25 - 86.2%). Mainz (votes: 4 - 13.8%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Kobel G. (G) 25. Sule N. 3. Anton W. 5. Bensebaini R. 26. Ryerson J. 7. Bellingham J. 24. Svensson D. 10. Brandt J. (C) 8. Nmecha F. 9. Guirassy S. 14. Beier M.	33. Batz D. (G) 4. Posch S. 16. Bell S. 31. Kohr D. 21. da Costa D. 6. Sano K. 30. Widmer S. (C) 7. Lee Jae-Sung 10. Amiri N. 26. Silas 20. Tietz P.
Substitutes
27. Adeyemi K. 17. Chukwuemeka C. 2. Couto Y. 40. Inacio S. 33. Meyer A. (G) 6. Ozcan S. 49. Reggiani L. 20. Sabitzer M. 21. Silva F.	23. Becker S. 14. Boving W. 5. Leitsch M. 2. Mwene P. 8. Nebel P. 48. Potulski K. 1. Riess L. (G) 22. Veratschnig N. 44. Weiper N.
Coaches
Kovac N.	Fischer U.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 0)
9', Widmer S. 🟨,
10', 1 - 0, Guirassy S. ⚽, Ryerson J. (A),
15', 2 - 0, Beier M. ⚽, Ryerson J. (A),
23', Sule N. 🟨,
27', Bell S. ↓, Potulski K. ↑,
42', 3 - 0, Guirassy S. ⚽, Ryerson J. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Sule N. ↓, Reggiani L. ↑,
56', Posch S. 🟨,
60', Silas ↓, Becker S. ↑,
61', Lee Jae-Sung ↓, Nebel P. ↑,
61', Widmer S. ↓, Mwene P. ↑,
61', Brandt J. ↓, Chukwuemeka C. ↑,
61', Beier M. ↓, Silva F. ↑,
73', Tietz P. ↓, Weiper N. ↑,
74', Nmecha F. ↓, Sabitzer M. ↑,
74', Guirassy S. ↓, Adeyemi K. ↑,
84', 4 - 0, Kohr D. (Own goal),
86', Chukwuemeka C. 🟨,
90+1', Silva F. 🟨,

Preview

One of the top teams will play against one of the outsiders (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: ) and 14).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Borussia D won 2.

In recent matches, Borussia D has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Mainz is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

In this match, Borussia D is considered a favorite.

There will not play in Borussia D: Can E. (Groin Injury) Mane F. (Thigh Injury) Schlotterbeck N. (Yellow Cards)

There will not play in Mainz: Caci A. (Thigh Injury) Dal M. (Knee Injury) Hanche-Olsen A. (Inactive) Hollerbach B. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Kawasaki S. (Injury) Leitsch M. (Muscle Injury) Maloney L. (Illness) Zentner R. (Groin Injury)

There are questionable in Borussia D: Adeyemi K. (Ankle Injury) Couto Y. (Illness) Sabitzer M. (Calf Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Borussia D won 11 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 33:24. (average 1.7:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Borussia D won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 15:14. (average 1.5:1.4).

Outrights of German Bundesliga for now

Dortmund: 9.23% Mainz: 0.29%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Dortmund	4	4	0	0	9:2	7	12
6	Mainz	4	2	1	1	10:6	4	7

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Borussia Dortmund
German Bundesliga
07.02.26	Wolfsburg - Borussia Dortmund	1:2 ✺
01.02.26	Borussia Dortmund - Heidenheim	3:2 ✺
UEFA Champions League
28.01.26	Borussia Dortmund - Inter Milan	0:2 ✺
German Bundesliga
24.01.26	Union Berlin - Borussia Dortmund	0:3 ✺
UEFA Champions League
20.01.26	Tottenham Hotspur - Borussia Dortmund	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 WWLWL
- Mainz 05
German Bundesliga
07.02.26	Mainz - Augsburg	2:0 ✺
31.01.26	RB Leipzig - Mainz	1:2 ✺
24.01.26	Mainz - Wolfsburg	3:1 ✺
17.01.26	Köln - Mainz	2:1 ✺
13.01.26	Mainz - Heidenheim	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18 WWWLW

Latest Head to Head

German Bundesliga
27.09.25	Mainz - Borussia Dortmund	0:2
30.03.25	Borussia Dortmund - Mainz	3:1
09.11.24	Mainz - Borussia Dortmund	3:1
11.05.24	Mainz - Borussia Dortmund	3:0
19.12.23	Borussia Dortmund - Mainz	1:1
27.05.23	Borussia Dortmund - Mainz	2:2
25.01.23	Mainz - Borussia Dortmund	1:2

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