Match Info

Bundesliga - Round 4

Date: 19 September 2026, Saturday

Location: Borussia-Park (Mönchengladbach)

Referee: Hartmann R. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Borussia Mönchengladbach		Mainz

	1	X	2
	3.20	3.75	2.10	Watch
	3.20	3.60	2.15
	3.20	3.60	2.08	Watch
	3.36	3.80	2.19
	2.95	3.85	2.23	Watch
	3.25	3.65	2.16
	3.24	3.80	2.13	Watch
	3.25	3.85	2.11
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.21 ↑ (2.74)	3.74 ↑ (3.72)	2.14 ↓ (2.35)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 1.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Borussia Mönchengladbach
29.8%

Draw
25.6%

Mainz
44.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.5%

25.4%

40.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34.7%

25.5%

40%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Borussia Mönchengladbach has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.7%)

Mainz has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Borussia Mönchengladbach than the current prediction. (+4.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mainz than the current prediction. (-4.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
23.1%	23.1%	53.8%

Borussia Mönchengladbach - Mainz Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Borussia M will win (votes: 3 - 25%). Mainz will win (votes: 6 - 50%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Mainz: 21.7% – 78.3%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (1.47) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (1.44) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Nicolas M. (G) 6. Itakura K. 5. Leszczynski J. 4. Diks K. (C) 29. Scally J. 38. Bolin H. 16. Sander P. 26. Ullrich L. 9. Honorat F. 10. Neuhaus F. 3. Lidberg I.	1. Schwolow A. (G) 4. Posch S. 3. Gruber F. 48. Potulski K. 19. Caci A. 10. Amiri N. (C) 6. Sano K. 7. Lee Jae-Sung 2. Mwene P. 9. Tietz P. 23. Becker S.
Substitutes
33. Batz D. (G) 2. Chiarodia F. C. 25. Hack R. 14. Hashioka D. 20. Herold D. 18. Machino S. 36. Mohya W. 34. Nguefack M. 7. Stoger K.	16. Bell S. 21. da Costa D. 17. Hollerbach B. 40. Kinzig M. (G) 11. Konigsdorffer R. 15. Maloney L. 5. Martel E. 47. Nakuzola R. 20. Ruoppi O.
Coaches
Lichte J.	Fischer U.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
11', 1 - 0, Neuhaus F. ⚽, Ullrich L. (A),
18', 1 - 1, Tietz P. ⚽, Becker S. (A),
19', Ullrich L. 🟨,
45+1', 1 - 2, Becker S. ⚽, Caci A. (A),
2nd Half (2 - 2)
55', Honorat F. 🟨,
55', Posch S. 🟨,
57', Diks K. (Penalty Awarded),
59', 2 - 2, Lidberg I. ⚽, Ullrich L. (A),
62', Neuhaus F. 🟨,
64', Neuhaus F. ↓, Mohya W. ↑,
65', Caci A. ↓, da Costa D. ↑,
65', Lee Jae-Sung ↓, Martel E. ↑,
73', Mwene P. 🟨,
76', Becker S. ↓, Konigsdorffer R. ↑,
76', Honorat F. ↓, Stoger K. ↑,
76', Scally J. ↓, Hashioka D. ↑,
78', 2 - 3, Martel E. ⚽, Sano K. (A),
84', Itakura K. ↓, Machino S. ↑,
84', Bolin H. ↓, Hack R. ↑,
87', Mohya W. 🟨,
87', Stoger K. 🟨,
89', 2 - 4, da Costa D. ⚽,
90+1', Amiri N. ↓, Maloney L. ↑,
90+3', Potulski K. 🟨,
90+3', Machino S. 🟨,
90+4', Schwolow A. 🟨,
90+5', 3 - 4, Machino S. (Penalty Awarded),
90+7', Konigsdorffer R. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Borussia M won 1.

In recent outings, Borussia M has recorded mixed results (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Mainz shows confident form ahead of this contest (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

In this match, both teams have fairly balanced chances of victory.

Confirmed absences for Borussia M: Castrop J. (Shoulder Injury) Kleindienst T. (Red Card) Kuhn N. (Muscle Injury) Leopold E. (Knee Injury).

Confirmed absences for Mainz: Kohr D. (Foot Injury) Nebel P. (Muscle Injury) Silas (Broken shinbone) Widmer S. (Knee Injury) Zentner R. (Hand Injury).

Doubtful / questionable for Borussia M: Konoplya Y. (Knee Injury) Uno Z. (Lacking Match Fitness).

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Borussia M has recorded 8 wins, 8 draws, and 4 losses, with a goal aggregate of 30:23 (averaging 1.5:1.2 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Borussia M against this opponent, the record stands at 2 wins, 4 draws, and 3 losses, with 14:12 goals (averaging 1.6:1.3 per game).

Outrights of German Bundesliga for now

Mainz: 0.29% B. Monchengladbach: 0.17%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Mainz	4	2	1	1	10:6	4	7
18	B. Monchengladbach	4	0	0	4	6:16	-10	0

Last Results with these Odds

Borussia Mönchengladbach - the odds 2.74 are the expected chance of winning is 34.45%, but this team recently wins 25% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Borussia Mönchengladbach
German Bundesliga
12.09.26	Freiburg - Borussia Mönchengladbach	5:0 ✺
05.09.26	Borussia Mönchengladbach - Elversberg	3:4 ✺
29.08.26	RB Leipzig - Borussia Mönchengladbach	3:0 ✺
German DFB Pokal
23.08.26	Schott Mainz - Borussia Mönchengladbach	0:5 ✺
Club Friendly
15.08.26	Borussia Mönchengladbach - Aston Villa	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.8 LLLWW
- Mainz 05
German Bundesliga
12.09.26	Mainz - Eintracht Frankfurt	1:3 ✺
06.09.26	Hamburger SV - Mainz	0:5 ✺
29.08.26	Mainz - Paderborn	0:0 ✺
German DFB Pokal
23.08.26	Krieschow - Mainz	0:9 ✺
Club Friendly
15.08.26	Mainz - Bournemouth	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.5 LWTWW

Latest Head to Head

German Bundesliga
19.04.26	Borussia Mönchengladbach - Mainz	1:1
05.12.25	Mainz - Borussia Mönchengladbach	0:1
07.03.25	Borussia Mönchengladbach - Mainz	1:3
25.10.24	Mainz - Borussia Mönchengladbach	1:1
02.03.24	Mainz - Borussia Mönchengladbach	1:1
06.10.23	Borussia Mönchengladbach - Mainz	2:2
24.02.23	Mainz - Borussia Mönchengladbach	4:0

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