Match Info

Bundesliga - Round 6

Date: 17 October 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Location: Veltins Arena (Gelsenkirchen) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Hempel R. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Africa	—	StarTimes App, Startimes Sports Focus
Albania	15:30	Tring Sport 4
Argentina	10:30	Disney+
Asia	—	MBC Action
Australia	00:30	beIN Connect
Austria	15:30	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Bundesliga 3
Bolivia	09:30	ESPN 5
Bosnia And Herzegovina	15:30	Arena Sport 4P
Canada	09:30	DAZN Canada, OneSoccer
Chile	10:30	ESPN Premium
China	21:30	Migu
Colombia	08:30	ESPN 5
Croatia	15:30	SportKlub 11
Denmark	15:30	Viaplay
Ecuador	08:30	ESPN 5
Finland	16:30	Viaplay
Germany	15:30	DAZN Deutsch, Sky Go Germany, Sky Sport Bundesliga 3, WOW
Greece	16:30	Nova Sports 6
Hong Kong	21:30	beIN SPORTS MAX, M Plus Live
Iceland	13:30	Viaplay
India	19:00	ZEE5
Japan	22:30	DAZN Japan
Malaysia	21:30	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Mexico	07:30	FOX One
Netherlands	15:30	Viaplay
New Zealand	02:30	beIN Connect
North Macedonia	15:30	MaxTV GO
Norway	15:30	Viaplay
Paraguay	10:30	ESPN 5
Peru	08:30	Disney+, ESPN 5
Philippines	21:30	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Portugal	14:30	DAZN / App
Romania	16:30	Prima Sport PPV 1
Russia	16:30	Okko Sport
Saudi Arabia	16:30	MBC Shahid
Serbia	15:30	Arena Sport 4
Singapore	21:30	beIN SPORTS MAX
Slovakia	15:30	Sport TV2
South Korea	22:30	Coupang Play
Spain	15:30	DAZN Espana
Sweden	15:30	Viaplay
Switzerland	15:30	Sky Sport Bundesliga 3
Thailand	20:30	AIS PLAY
Uruguay	10:30	Disney+
Usa	09:30	Peacock
Venezuela	09:30	Disney+, ESPN 5, Inter
International	13:30	OneFootball TV


	Schalke 04		Mainz

	1	X	2
	2.80	3.50	2.45	Watch
	2.75	3.50	2.40
	2.90	3.55	2.25	Watch
	2.91	3.58	2.49
	2.79	3.78	2.36	Watch
	2.85	3.50	2.45
	2.83	3.53	2.47	Watch
	2.90	3.65	2.39
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.84 ↑ (2.78)	3.57 ↓ (3.76)	2.41 ↑ (2.35)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Schalke 04
33.6%

Draw
26.7%

Mainz
39.7%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

34.2%

25.3%

40.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.4%

27.6%

44.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Schalke 04 has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.6%)

Mainz has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Schalke 04 than the current prediction. (-2.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mainz than the current prediction. (+4.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
28.6%	14.3%	57.1%

Schalke 04 - Mainz Predictions

Users Predictions: 14 users predict this event. Schalke will win (votes: 4 - 28.6%). Mainz will win (votes: 8 - 57.1%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 14.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Mainz: 31.2% – 83%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.25 - Mainz (2.04) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (1.54) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Mainz (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Karius L. (G) 5. Becker T. 25. Katic N. 4. Kurucay H. 17. Gantenbein A. 23. El-Faouzi S. 13. Tanaka S. 8. Gosens R. 19. Karaman K. (C) 24. Aouchiche A. 10. Dzeko E.	1. Schwolow A. (G) 21. da Costa D. 4. Posch S. 48. Potulski K. 19. Caci A. 10. Amiri N. (C) 6. Sano K. 7. Lee Jae-Sung 2. Mwene P. 23. Becker S. 9. Tietz P.
Substitutes
20. Adamu J. 43. Ayhan M. 33. Becker V. 29. Dina Ebimbe J. 7. Hwang Hee-Chan 22. Muller K. (G) 6. Schallenberg R. 38. Vozar L. 39. Wober M.	3. Gruber F. 17. Hollerbach B. 40. Kinzig M. (G) 11. Konigsdorffer R. 15. Maloney L. 5. Martel E. 47. Nakuzola R. 8. Nebel P. 30. Widmer S.
Coaches
Muslic M.	Fischer U.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
24', 0 - 1, Tietz P. ⚽, Caci A. (A),
42', Amiri N. 🟨,
45', Sano K. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
60', Gantenbein A. ↓, Dina Ebimbe J. ↑,
60', Dzeko E. ↓, Hwang Hee-Chan ↑,
71', Katic N. ↓, Wober M. ↑,
71', Aouchiche A. ↓, Adamu J. ↑,
76', Becker S. ↓, Konigsdorffer R. ↑,
76', Lee Jae-Sung ↓, Nebel P. ↑,
79', Gosens R. ↓, Becker V. ↑,
86', Amiri N. ↓, Martel E. ↑,
90+1', Tietz P. ↓, Maloney L. ↑,
90+1', Caci A. ↓, Widmer S. ↑,

Preview

Crucial home points are at stake for a lower-table team looking to climb out of danger (ranked 14th and 9th).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Schalke won 2.

Schalke is in solid form heading into this fixture (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Performances by Mainz have been somewhat unpredictable lately (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Recently, Schalke has faced a series of away games on the road.

In this match, both teams have fairly balanced chances of victory.

Confirmed absences for Schalke: Sylla M. (Leg Injury).

Confirmed absences for Mainz: Kohr D. (Foot Injury) Ruoppi O. (Knee Injury) Silas (Broken shinbone) Zentner R. (Hand Injury).

Doubtful / questionable for Schalke: Ljubicic D. (Knee Injury).

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Schalke has recorded 11 wins, 5 draws, and 4 losses, with a goal aggregate of 27:18 (averaging 1.4:0.9 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Schalke against this opponent, the record stands at 7 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss, with 16:5 goals (averaging 1.6:0.5 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	Mainz	7	3	1	3	16:13	3	10
16	Schalke	7	1	3	3	4:7	-3	6

Outrights of German Bundesliga for now

Mainz: 0.2% Schalke: 0.17%

Last Results with these Odds

Schalke 04 - the odds 2.78 are the expected chance of winning is 34.22%, but this team recently wins 0% of matches with these odds.

Mainz - the odds 2.35 are the expected chance of winning is 40.48%, but this team recently wins 46% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Schalke 04
German Bundesliga
11.10.26	Freiburg - Schalke 04	2:1 ✺
Club Friendly
03.10.26	Austria Lustenau - Schalke 04	0:1 ✺
24.09.26	Rot-Weiß Oberhausen - Schalke 04	2:5 ✺
German Bundesliga
20.09.26	Schalke 04 - Elversberg	0:0 ✺
11.09.26	Union Berlin - Schalke 04	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.3 LWWTW
- Mainz 05
German Bundesliga
10.10.26	Mainz - Bayer Leverkusen	3:4 ✺
Club Friendly
03.10.26	Waldhof Mannheim - Mainz	0:3
German Bundesliga
19.09.26	Borussia Mönchengladbach - Mainz	3:4 ✺
12.09.26	Mainz - Eintracht Frankfurt	1:3 ✺
06.09.26	Hamburger SV - Mainz	0:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.7 LWWLW

Latest Head to Head

German Bundesliga
05.05.23	Mainz - Schalke 04	2:3
09.11.22	Schalke 04 - Mainz	1:0
05.03.21	Schalke 04 - Mainz	0:0
07.11.20	Mainz - Schalke 04	2:2
16.02.20	Mainz - Schalke 04	0:0
20.09.19	Schalke 04 - Mainz	2:1
23.02.19	Mainz - Schalke 04	3:0

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