Match Info

Bundesliga - Round 26

Date: 13 March 2026, Friday

Location: Borussia-Park (Mönchengladbach)

Referee: Schlager D. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Borussia Mönchengladbach		St. Pauli

	1	X	2
	1.91	3.4	4.2	Watch
	1.88	3.5	4.1
	1.92	3.35	4.25
	1.97	3.42	4.5
	1.96	3.39	4.12	Watch
	1.91	3.2	4
	2.01	3.49	4.06	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.94 ↓ (1.95)	3.39 ↓ (3.47)	4.18 ↑ (4)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Borussia Mönchengladbach
49.1%

Draw
28.1%

St. Pauli
22.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48.8%

27.4%

23.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50.1%

28.1%

23.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Borussia Mönchengladbach has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)

St. Pauli has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Borussia Mönchengladbach than the current prediction. (+1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for St. Pauli than the current prediction. (+0.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
62.5%	20.8%	16.7%

Borussia Mönchengladbach - St. Pauli Predictions

Users Predictions: 47 users predict this event. Borussia M will win (votes: 30 - 63.8%). St. Pauli will win (votes: 8 - 17%). It will Tie (votes: 9 - 19.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Borussia M: 50.1% – 77.5%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 11 Selected Experts predict this event. Borussia M (votes: 8 - 72.7%). St. Pauli (votes: 1 - 9.1%). Tie (votes: 2 - 18.2%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 5 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

O/U 3.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Borussia M (1.22) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0 - Borussia M (1.39) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH +0.5 - St. Pauli (1.88) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 16 Selected Experts predict this event. Borussia M (votes: 11 - 68.8%). St. Pauli (votes: 3 - 18.8%). Tie (votes: 2 - 12.5%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
33. Nicolas M. (G) 16. Sander P. 30. Elvedi N. (C) 4. Diks K. 29. Scally J. 6. Engelhardt Y. 7. Stoger K. 17. Castrop J. 36. Mohya W. 38. Bolin H. 15. Tabakovic H.	22. Vasilj N. (G) 25. Dzwigala A. 5. Wahl H. 15. Ando T. 11. Pyrka A. 8. Smith E. 7. Irvine J. (C) 21. Ritzka L. 16. Fujita J. 28. Pereira Lage M. 10. Sinani D.
Substitutes
2. Chiarodia F. C. 9. Honorat F. 18. Machino S. 10. Neuhaus F. 23. Olschowsky J. (G) 13. Reyna G. 8. Sarco A. 39. Swider N. 26. Ullrich L.	9. Ceesay A. 18. Hara T. 27. Hountondji A. 19. Kaars M. 24. Metcalfe C. 4. Nemeth D. 23. Oppie L. 20. Rasmussen M. 1. Voll B. A. (G)
Coaches
Polanski E.	Blessin A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
6', Wahl H. 🟨,
36', Smith E. 🟨,
37', 1 - 0, Stoger K. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
57', Tabakovic H. 🟨,
57', Mohya W. ↓, Honorat F. ↑,
57', Castrop J. ↓, Ullrich L. ↑,
63', 2 - 0, Honorat F. ⚽, Scally J. (A),
67', Dzwigala A. ↓, Kaars M. ↑,
67', Pereira Lage M. ↓, Oppie L. ↑,
68', Ritzka L. ↓, Hountondji A. ↑,
74', Bolin H. ↓, Neuhaus F. ↑,
75', Tabakovic H. ↓, Machino S. ↑,
87', Elvedi N. ↓, Chiarodia F. C. ↑,
88', Pyrka A. ↓, Metcalfe C. ↑,

Preview

A meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will take place in this match (ranked 12 and 16 in the zone Bundesliga (Relegation)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Borussia M won 2.

Recent form of Borussia M has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

St. Pauli is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In this match, Borussia M is seen as the favorite.

There will not play in Borussia M: Hack R. (Muscle Injury) Ngoumou N. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Reitz R. (Red Card) Takai K. (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in St. Pauli: Jones R.J. (Injury) Mets K. (Calf Injury) Saliakas M. (Injury) Sands J. (Ankle Injury)

There are questionable in Borussia M: Bolin H. (Injury) Kleindienst T. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in St. Pauli: Hountondji A. (Ankle Injury) Nemeth D. (Groin Injury) Rasmussen M. (Muscle Injury)

In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Borussia M won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 17:9. (average 1.9:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Borussia M won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 7:7. (average 1.4:1.4).

Outrights of German Bundesliga for now

B. Monchengladbach: 0.24%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
18	B. Monchengladbach	4	0	0	4	6:16	-10	0

Last Results with these Odds

Borussia Mönchengladbach - the odds 1.95 are the expected chance of winning is 48.79%, but this team recently wins 22% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Borussia Mönchengladbach
German Bundesliga
06.03.26	Bayern Munich - Borussia Mönchengladbach	4:1 ✺
28.02.26	Borussia Mönchengladbach - Union Berlin	1:0 ✺
22.02.26	Freiburg - Borussia Mönchengladbach	2:1 ✺
14.02.26	Eintracht Frankfurt - Borussia Mönchengladbach	3:0 ✺
07.02.26	Borussia Mönchengladbach - Bayer Leverkusen	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 LWLLT
- FC St. Pauli
German Bundesliga
08.03.26	St. Pauli - Eintracht Frankfurt	0:0 ✺
28.02.26	Hoffenheim - St. Pauli	0:1 ✺
22.02.26	St. Pauli - Werder Bremen	2:1 ✺
14.02.26	Bayer Leverkusen - St. Pauli	4:0 ✺
07.02.26	St. Pauli - Stuttgart	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 23.8 TWWLW

Latest Head to Head

German DFB Pokal
02.12.25	Borussia Mönchengladbach - St. Pauli	1:2
German Bundesliga
01.11.25	St. Pauli - Borussia Mönchengladbach	0:4
06.04.25	St. Pauli - Borussia Mönchengladbach	1:1
24.11.24	Borussia Mönchengladbach - St. Pauli	2:0
Club Friendly
14.01.23	Borussia Mönchengladbach - St. Pauli	0:1
24.03.17	Borussia Mönchengladbach - St. Pauli	4:4
23.07.16	St. Pauli - Borussia Mönchengladbach	0:1 penalties

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