Match Info

Bundesliga - Round 25

Date: 8 March 2026, Sunday

Location: Millerntor-Stadion (Hamburg)

Referee: Zwayer F. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	St. Pauli		Eintracht Frankfurt

	1	X	2
	2.5	3.4	2.8	Watch
	2.52	3.25	2.88	Watch
	2.57	3.31	2.97
	2.62	3.33	2.74	Watch
	2.5	3.1	2.75	Watch
	2.61	3.46	2.79	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.55 ↑ (2.49)	3.31 ↓ (3.43)	2.82 ↑ (2.78)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

St. Pauli
37.4%

Draw
28.8%

Eintracht Frankfurt
33.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.1%

27.7%

34.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40%

29.1%

32.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

St. Pauli has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)

Eintracht Frankfurt has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for St. Pauli than the current prediction. (+2.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Eintracht Frankfurt than the current prediction. (-1.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
21.9%	34.4%	43.7%

St. Pauli - Eintracht Frankfurt Predictions

Users Predictions: 30 users predict this event. St. Pauli will win (votes: 7 - 23.3%). Eintracht will win (votes: 14 - 46.7%). It will Tie (votes: 9 - 30%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Eintracht: 28.8% – 64.6%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. St. Pauli (votes: 2 - 33.3%). Eintracht (votes: 3 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 16.7%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Eintracht (1.91) (votes: 2 - 66.7%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 5 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

BTTS - yes (votes: 4 - 80%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 9 Selected Experts predict this event. St. Pauli (votes: 3 - 33.3%). Eintracht (votes: 5 - 55.6%). Tie (votes: 1 - 11.1%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Vasilj N. (G) 5. Wahl H. 8. Smith E. 15. Ando T. 2. Saliakas M. 6. Sands J. 7. Irvine J. (C) 11. Pyrka A. 16. Fujita J. 28. Pereira Lage M. 10. Sinani D.	23. Zetterer M. (G) 21. Brown N. 5. Amenda A. 4. Koch R. (C) 34. Collins N. 8. Chaibi F. 16. Larsson H. 6. Hojlund O. 25. Kalimuendo A. 9. Burkardt J. 19. Bahoya J.
Substitutes
9. Ceesay A. 25. Dzwigala A. 18. Hara T. 19. Kaars M. 24. Metcalfe C. 23. Oppie L. 21. Ritzka L. 34. Robatsch J. 1. Voll B. A. (G)	29. Amaimouni A. 31. Arrhov L. 2. Baum E. 18. Dahoud M. 20. Doan R. 41. Doumbia F. 27. Gotze M. 33. Grahl J. (G) 15. Skhiri E.
Coaches
Blessin A.	Riera A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 0)
48', Saliakas M. ↓, Ritzka L. ↑,
62', Ando T. 🟨,
66', Hojlund O. ↓, Doan R. ↑,
66', Ando T. ↓, Dzwigala A. ↑,
76', Doan R. 🟨,
81', Sands J. ↓, Metcalfe C. ↑,
83', Kalimuendo A. ↓, Amaimouni A. ↑,
87', Chaibi F. ↓, Arrhov L. ↑,
89', Metcalfe C. 🟨,
90+4', Blessin A. 🟨,

Preview

A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 15 and 7).

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

St. Pauli may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

There will not play in St. Pauli: Hountondji A. (Ankle Injury) Jones R.J. (Injury) Mets K. (Calf Injury) Nemeth D. (Groin Injury) Rasmussen M. (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in Eintracht: Batshuayi M. (Foot Injury) Ebnoutalib Y. (Injury) Kaua Santos (Knee Injury) Knauff A. (Surgery) Kristensen R. (Ankle Injury) Theate A. (Knee Injury) Uzun C. Y. (Muscle Injury)

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, St. Pauli won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 3:7. (average 0.8:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, St. Pauli won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 1:3. (average 0.5:1.5).

Outrights of German Bundesliga for now

Eintracht Frankfurt: 0.46%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
10	Eintracht Frankfurt	4	1	2	1	9:10	-1	5

Last Results with these Odds

Eintracht Frankfurt - the odds 2.78 are the expected chance of winning is 34.17%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC St. Pauli
German Bundesliga
28.02.26	Hoffenheim - St. Pauli	0:1 ✺
22.02.26	St. Pauli - Werder Bremen	2:1 ✺
14.02.26	Bayer Leverkusen - St. Pauli	4:0 ✺
07.02.26	St. Pauli - Stuttgart	2:1 ✺
German DFB Pokal
03.02.26	Bayer Leverkusen - St. Pauli	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 22.5 WWLWL
- Eintracht Frankfurt
German Bundesliga
01.03.26	Eintracht Frankfurt - Freiburg	2:0 ✺
21.02.26	Bayern Munich - Eintracht Frankfurt	3:2 ✺
14.02.26	Eintracht Frankfurt - Borussia Mönchengladbach	3:0 ✺
06.02.26	Union Berlin - Eintracht Frankfurt	1:1 ✺
31.01.26	Eintracht Frankfurt - Bayer Leverkusen	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.7 WLWTL

Latest Head to Head

German Bundesliga
25.10.25	Eintracht Frankfurt - St. Pauli	2:0
11.05.25	Eintracht Frankfurt - St. Pauli	2:2
11.01.25	St. Pauli - Eintracht Frankfurt	0:1
German DFB Pokal
30.10.19	St. Pauli - Eintracht Frankfurt	1:2

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