Match Info

Bundesliga - Round 21

Date: 7 February 2026, Saturday

Location: Millerntor-Stadion (Hamburg)

Referee: Brand B. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


Albania	Tring Sport 3
Argentina	Disney+
Australia	beIN Connect
Austria	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Bundesliga 2
Brazil	Canal GOAT
Bulgaria	Play Diema Xtra
Canada	DAZN Canada, OneSoccer
Chile	Disney+
China	Migu, QQ Sports
Colombia	Disney+
Croatia	SportKlub 10
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 6, Oneplay
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Veikkaus TV, Viaplay
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 7, Free
Germany	DAZN Deutsch, Sky Go Germany, Sky Sport Bundesliga 2, WOW
Greece	Nova Sports Extra 3
Hong-kong	beIN Sports 1, M Plus Live, Now Player
Iceland	Viaplay
India	Sony LIV
Japan	DAZN Japan
Laos	beIN Connect
Malaysia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, Sooka
Mexico	Izzi TV, Sky Sport
Netherlands	Viaplay
New-zealand	beIN Connect
North-central-america	Sky Sports Norte
Norway	TV2 Play, Viaplay
Pakistan	Tapmad
Peru	Disney+
Philippines	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Poland	Eleven Sports 3
Portugal	DAZN / App
Russia	Okko Sport
Saudi-arabia	MBC Shahid
Serbia	Arena Sport 7
Singapore	beIN Sports 3
Slovakia	Nova Sport 6, Sport TV2, Voyo
South-korea	Coupang Play
Spain	DAZN Espana
Sweden	Viaplay
Switzerland	Sky Sport Bundesliga 2
Thailand	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Turkey	S Sport+, Tivibu Spor 2
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+
Venezuela	Disney+
Vietnam	TV 360
World	Onefootball


	St. Pauli		Stuttgart

	1	X	2
	5	3.9	1.67	Watch
	4.95	3.95	1.7	Watch
	5.04	3.91	1.75
	4.87	3.89	1.71	Watch
	4.5	3.5	1.73
	4.86	3.99	1.74	Watch
	4.75	3.8	1.73
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.85 ↑ (4.11)	3.85 ↑ (3.69)	1.72 ↓ (1.86)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

St. Pauli
19.7%

Draw
24.8%

Stuttgart
55.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

23.1%

25.8%

51.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

22.5%

25.2%

52.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

St. Pauli has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.4%)

Stuttgart has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for St. Pauli than the current prediction. (+2.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Stuttgart than the current prediction. (-3.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
6.2%	7.4%	86.4%

St. Pauli - Stuttgart Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

1X2, 1st Half - Stuttgart (2.35) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

1X2, 2nd Half - Stuttgart (2.11) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.75 - Stuttgart (1.90) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Stuttgart will win (69 of 80 users predict this - 86.25%).
Confidence interval (95%): 78.7% – 93.8%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Stuttgart will win (45 of 47 users predict this - 95.74%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 50 Selected Experts predict this event. Stuttgart (votes: 48 - 96%). Tie (votes: 2 - 4%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Vasilj N. (G) 25. Dzwigala A. 15. Ando T. 3. Mets K. 2. Saliakas M. 7. Irvine J. 6. Sands J. 11. Pyrka A. 10. Sinani D. 20. Rasmussen M. 19. Kaars M.	33. Nubel A. (G) 4. Vagnoman J. 29. Jeltsch F. 3. Hendriks R. 7. Mittelstadt M. 16. Karazor A. 6. Stiller A. 11. El Khannouss B. 26. Undav D. 10. Fuhrich C. 9. Demirovic E.
Substitutes
38. Aigbekaen R. 9. Ceesay A. 18. Hara T. 23. Oppie L. 21. Ritzka L. 34. Robatsch J. 44. Schmidt N. 14. Stevens F. 1. Voll B. A. (G)	2. Al Dakhil A. 30. Andres C. 22. Assignon L. 27. Bouanani B. 1. Bredlow F. (G) 24. Chabot J. 25. Jeremy Arevalo 18. Leweling J. 15. Stenzel P.
Coaches
Blessin A.	Hoeness S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
35', 1 - 0, Saliakas M. ⚽, Pyrka A. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', El Khannouss B. ↓, Leweling J. ↑,
55', 2 - 0, Sinani D. (Penalty Awarded),
57', Undav D. 🟨,
69', Vagnoman J. ↓, Assignon L. ↑,
69', Fuhrich C. ↓, Bouanani B. ↑,
72', Demirovic E. 🟨,
85', Karazor A. ↓, Andres C. ↑,
85', Demirovic E. ↓, Jeremy Arevalo ↑,
90', 2 - 1, Leweling J. ⚽, Jeremy Arevalo (A),
90+5', Kaars M. ↓, Hara T. ↑,
90+5', Pyrka A. ↓, Ritzka L. ↑,

Preview

Let's watch a game between a leader and an outsider (ranked 17 in the zone Relegation ~ 2. Bundesliga and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, St. Pauli won 1.

St. Pauli is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Stuttgart is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Stuttgart may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Stuttgart is a strong favorite.

There will not play in St. Pauli: Hountondji A. (Ankle Injury) Jones R.J. (Injury) Metcalfe C. (Knee Injury) Nemeth D. (Groin Injury)

There will not play in Stuttgart: Jovanovic L. (Back Injury)

There are questionable in St. Pauli: Smith E. (Heel Injury) Wahl H. (Injury)

There are questionable in Stuttgart: Nartey N. (Knock) Tomas T. (Muscle Injury) Zagadou D. (Muscle Injury)

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, St. Pauli won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 6 matches, and goals 4:12. (average 0.5:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, St. Pauli won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 1:3. (average 0.3:1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
10	Stuttgart	5	2	0	3	8:9	-1	6

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC St. Pauli
German DFB Pokal
03.02.26	Bayer Leverkusen - St. Pauli	3:0 ✺
German Bundesliga
31.01.26	Augsburg - St. Pauli	2:1 ✺
27.01.26	St. Pauli - RB Leipzig	1:1 ✺
23.01.26	St. Pauli - Hamburger SV	0:0 ✺
17.01.26	Borussia Dortmund - St. Pauli	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 LLTTL
- VfB Stuttgart
German DFB Pokal
04.02.26	Holstein Kiel - Stuttgart	0:3 ✺
German Bundesliga
01.02.26	Stuttgart - Freiburg	1:0 ✺
UEFA Europa League
29.01.26	Stuttgart - Young Boys	3:2 ✺
German Bundesliga
25.01.26	Borussia Mönchengladbach - Stuttgart	0:3 ✺
UEFA Europa League
22.01.26	Roma - Stuttgart	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.8 WWWWL

Latest Head to Head

German Bundesliga
19.09.25	Stuttgart - St. Pauli	2:0
03.05.25	St. Pauli - Stuttgart	0:1
21.12.24	Stuttgart - St. Pauli	0:1
German 2 Bundesliga
01.02.20	St. Pauli - Stuttgart	1:1
17.08.19	Stuttgart - St. Pauli	2:1
29.01.17	St. Pauli - Stuttgart	0:1
08.08.16	Stuttgart - St. Pauli	2:1

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