Match Info

Bundesliga - Round 22

Date: 14 February 2026, Saturday

Location: BayArena (Leverkusen)

Referee: Jablonski S. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	StarTimes App, Startimes Sports Arena
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World	Onefootball


	Bayer Leverkusen		St. Pauli

	1	X	2
	1.53	4.33	6	Watch
	1.52	4.25	6.4	Watch
	1.52	4.42	6.53
	1.53	4.53	6.4	Watch
	1.5	4	6	Watch
	1.54	4.41	6.43	Watch
	1.52	4.25	6.33
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.52 ↑ (1.45)	4.31 ↓ (4.53)	6.3 ↓ (7.04)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bayer Leverkusen
62.7%

Draw
22.1%

St. Pauli
15.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

65.5%

21%

13.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

67%

20.5%

13.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bayer Leverkusen has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.8%)

St. Pauli has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bayer Leverkusen than the current prediction. (+4.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for St. Pauli than the current prediction. (-2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
91.1%	7.1%	1.8%

Bayer Leverkusen - St. Pauli Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1.25 - Bayer (1.91) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Bayer (1.13) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Bayer Leverkusen will win (51 of 54 users predict this - 94.44%).
Confidence interval (95%): 88.33% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Bayer Leverkusen will win (15 of 15 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 17 Selected Experts predict this event. Bayer (votes: 17 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
28. Blaswich J. (G) 4. Quansah J. 8. Andrich R. (C) 12. Tapsoba E. 21. Lucas 24. Garcia A. 25. Palacios E. 20. Grimaldo A. 30. Maza I. 19. Poku E. 14. Schick P.	22. Vasilj N. (G) 25. Dzwigala A. 15. Ando T. 3. Mets K. 2. Saliakas M. 6. Sands J. 7. Irvine J. (C) 11. Pyrka A. 10. Sinani D. 20. Rasmussen M. 19. Kaars M.
Substitutes
13. Arthur 5. Bade L. 6. Fernandez E. 7. Hofmann J. 35. Kofane C. 15. Oermann T. 18. Omlin J. (G) 11. Terrier M. 10. Tillman M.	38. Aigbekaen R. 9. Ceesay A. 16. Fujita J. 18. Hara T. 23. Oppie L. 21. Ritzka L. 34. Robatsch J. 14. Stevens F. 1. Voll B. A. (G)
Coaches
Hjulmand K.	Blessin A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
13', 1 - 0, Quansah J. ⚽, Poku E. (A),
14', 2 - 0, Schick P. ⚽, Lucas (A),
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Maza I. ↓, Tillman M. ↑,
52', 3 - 0, Tapsoba E. ⚽, Garcia A. (A),
59', Lucas ↓, Arthur ↑,
59', Schick P. ↓, Kofane C. ↑,
69', Irvine J. ↓, Hara T. ↑,
69', Sands J. ↓, Fujita J. ↑,
72', Grimaldo A. ↓, Hofmann J. ↑,
78', 4 - 0, Poku E. ⚽, Hofmann J. (A),
80', Palacios E. ↓, Terrier M. ↑,
83', Kaars M. ↓, Ceesay A. ↑,
83', Saliakas M. ↓, Ritzka L. ↑,
90+2', Mets K. 🟨,

Preview

A leader and an outsider will face off in this match (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: ) and 17 in the zone Relegation ~ 2. Bundesliga).

Bayer is in fantastic form, winning most of its recent matches (last 5 games: 4 wins).

St. Pauli's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, Bayer is the obvious favorite.

There will not play in Bayer: Ben Seghir E. (Ankle Injury) Flekken M. (Injury) Tella N. (Injury)

There will not play in St. Pauli: Hountondji A. (Ankle Injury) Jones R.J. (Injury) Nemeth D. (Groin Injury)

There are questionable in St. Pauli: Metcalfe C. (Knee Injury) Pereira Lage M. (Muscle Injury) Smith E. (Heel Injury) Wahl H. (Injury)

We predict that Bayer will win today's game, with odds of 1.5.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Bayer won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 10:5. (average 2:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Bayer won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 7:3. (average 2.3:1).

Outrights of German Bundesliga for now

Bayer Leverkusen: 3.01%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	Bayer Leverkusen	4	2	1	1	10:5	5	7

Last Results with these Odds

Bayer Leverkusen - the odds 1.45 are the expected chance of winning is 65.53%, but this team recently wins 86% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Bayer Leverkusen
German Bundesliga
07.02.26	Borussia Mönchengladbach - Bayer Leverkusen	1:1 ✺
German DFB Pokal
03.02.26	Bayer Leverkusen - St. Pauli	3:0 ✺
German Bundesliga
31.01.26	Eintracht Frankfurt - Bayer Leverkusen	1:3 ✺
UEFA Champions League
28.01.26	Bayer Leverkusen - Villarreal	3:0 ✺
German Bundesliga
24.01.26	Bayer Leverkusen - Werder Bremen	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.5 TWWWW
- FC St. Pauli
German Bundesliga
07.02.26	St. Pauli - Stuttgart	2:1 ✺
German DFB Pokal
03.02.26	Bayer Leverkusen - St. Pauli	3:0 ✺
German Bundesliga
31.01.26	Augsburg - St. Pauli	2:1 ✺
27.01.26	St. Pauli - RB Leipzig	1:1 ✺
23.01.26	St. Pauli - Hamburger SV	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.3 WLLTT

Latest Head to Head

German DFB Pokal
03.02.26	Bayer Leverkusen - St. Pauli	3:0
German Bundesliga
27.09.25	St. Pauli - Bayer Leverkusen	1:2
20.04.25	St. Pauli - Bayer Leverkusen	1:1
07.12.24	Bayer Leverkusen - St. Pauli	2:1
Club Friendly
04.09.14	Bayer Leverkusen - St. Pauli	2:2

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