Match Info

Bundesliga - Round 23

Date: 22 February 2026, Sunday 🏁 Finished

Location: Millerntor-Stadion (Hamburg) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Storks S. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Africa	—	Azam Sports 2, StarTimes App, Startimes World Football
Albania	17:30	Tring Sport 4
Argentina	13:30	Disney+, ESPN 3
Australia	03:30	beIN Connect
Austria	17:30	DAZN 2, DAZN
Bolivia	12:30	ESPN 5
Brazil	13:30	Canal GOAT, Claro TV+, IT tv Plus, RedeTV!, Sky+, SportyNet, Vivo Play, Zapping
Bulgaria	18:30	Diema Sport 3, Play Diema Xtra
Canada	11:30	DAZN Canada, OneSoccer
Chile	13:30	Disney+, ESPN Premium
China	00:30	Migu, QQ Sports
Colombia	11:30	Disney+, ESPN 5
Czech Republic	17:30	Nova Sport 3, Oneplay
Denmark	17:30	TV3 MAX, Viaplay
Ecuador	11:30	ESPN 5
Europe	—	Go3 Sport 3 Baltic
Finland	18:30	Veikkaus TV, Viaplay 1 Urheilu, Viaplay
France	17:30	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 5, Free
Georgia	20:30	Setanta Sport 3
Germany	17:30	DAZN 2 Bar Deutsch, DAZN 2, DAZN Deutsch
Greece	18:30	Nova Sports 3
Hong Kong	00:30	beIN Sports 2, beIN SPORTS MAX, M Plus Live, Now Player
Hungary	17:30	Arena 4
Iceland	16:30	Viaplay
India	22:00	Sony LIV, Vision+
Indonesia	23:30	K-Vision, MNC Soccer Channel
Italy	17:30	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 258
Japan	01:30	DAZN Japan
Laos	23:30	beIN Connect
Malaysia	00:30	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, beIN SPORTS MAX, Sooka
Malta	17:30	GO TV, TSN Malta 8
Mexico	10:30	Izzi TV, Sky Sport
Mongolia	00:30	Premier Sports 4
Netherlands	17:30	Viaplay
New Zealand	05:30	beIN Connect
North Central America	—	RUSH Sports 1 Caribbean, Sky Sports Norte
North Macedonia	17:30	MaxTV GO
Norway	17:30	TV2 Play, Viaplay, V Sport 1
Pakistan	21:30	Tapmad
Paraguay	13:30	ESPN 5
Peru	11:30	Disney+, ESPN 5
Philippines	00:30	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, beIN SPORTS MAX
Poland	17:30	Eleven Sports 4
Portugal	16:30	DAZN 3, DAZN / App
Romania	18:30	Digi Online, Digi Sport 3, Prima Sport PPV 1
Russia	19:30	Okko Sport
Saudi Arabia	19:30	MBC Shahid
Serbia	17:30	Arena Sport 3
Singapore	00:30	beIN Sports 3, beIN SPORTS MAX
Slovakia	17:30	Nova Sport 3, Voyo
Slovenia	17:30	Sport TV1
South Korea	01:30	Coupang Play
Spain	17:30	DAZN Espana, M+ Liga de Campeones 2, Movistar Plus+, Movistar+ Vamos Bar 2
Sweden	17:30	Viaplay, V Sport Extra
Switzerland	17:30	DAZN Switzerland
Thailand	23:30	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, beIN SPORTS MAX
Turkey	19:30	S Sport+, Tivibu Spor 3
Ukraine	18:30	Kyivstar TV, Setanta Sports Premium
United Kingdom	16:30	Amazon Prime Video
Uruguay	13:30	Disney+
Usa	11:30	ESPN App, ESPN+
Venezuela	12:30	Disney+, ESPN 5, Inter
Vietnam	23:30	TV 360
International	16:30	Daystar Pacific, Onefootball


	St. Pauli		Werder Bremen

	1	X	2
	2.75	3.2	2.75	Watch
	2.82	3.05	2.72	Watch
	2.82	3.2	2.79
	2.71	3.16	2.76	Watch
	2.63	2.9	2.63	Watch
	2.84	3.2	2.86	Watch
	2.75	3.1	2.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.76 ↓ (2.84)	3.12 ↑ (3.09)	2.75 ↑ (2.64)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 1.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

St. Pauli
34.6%

Draw
30.7%

Werder Bremen
34.7%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

33.4%

30.7%

35.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.8%

31%

35.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

St. Pauli has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.2%)

Werder Bremen has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for St. Pauli than the current prediction. (-0.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Werder Bremen than the current prediction. (+0.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
34.2%	52.6%	13.2%

St. Pauli - Werder Bremen Predictions

Users Predictions: 37 users predict this event. St. Pauli will win (votes: 13 - 35.1%). Werder will win (votes: 4 - 10.8%). It will Tie (votes: 20 - 54.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 38% – 70.2%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Werder (votes: 1 - 25%). Tie (votes: 3 - 75%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 2 - 100%) .

DNB - Werder (1.83) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Werder (1.44) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.5 - Werder (2.76) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Werder (votes: 4 - 57.1%). Tie (votes: 3 - 42.9%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Vasilj N. (G) 15. Ando T. 5. Wahl H. 3. Mets K. 2. Saliakas M. 8. Smith E. 7. Irvine J. (C) 11. Pyrka A. 16. Fujita J. 10. Sinani D. 19. Kaars M.	30. Backhaus M. (G) 4. Stark N. 14. Lynen S. 32. Friedl M. (C) 11. Njinmah J. 6. Stage J. 18. Puertas C. 23. Schmidt I. 20. Schmid R. 7. Mbangula S. 17. Grull M.
Substitutes
9. Ceesay A. 25. Dzwigala A. 18. Hara T. 23. Oppie L. 28. Pereira Lage M. 20. Rasmussen M. 21. Ritzka L. 6. Sands J. 1. Voll B. A. (G)	10. Bittencourt L. 24. Covic P. 2. Deman O. 13. Hein K. (G) 22. Malatini J. 19. Milosevic J. 3. Sugawara Y. 9. Topp K.
Coaches
Blessin A.	Thioune D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
7', Schmidt I. 🟨,
29', Kaars M. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
53', Kaars M. ↓, Pereira Lage M. ↑,
54', Lynen S. 🟨,
55', 1 - 0, Wahl H. ⚽, Sinani D. (A),
60', Schmid R. ↓, Bittencourt L. ↑,
61', Grull M. ↓, Milosevic J. ↑,
62', 1 - 1, Milosevic J. ⚽,
70', 2 - 1, Fujita J. ⚽, Saliakas M. (A),
75', Friedl M. 🟨,
76', Saliakas M. 🟨,
76', Milosevic J. 🟨,
76', Bittencourt L. 🟨,
79', Puertas C. ↓, Topp K. ↑,
80', Irvine J. ↓, Sands J. ↑,
87', Fujita J. ↓, Rasmussen M. ↑,
88', Stark N. 🟨,

Preview

This time, only outsiders will meet in a game (ranked 17 in the zone Relegation ~ 2. Bundesliga and 16 in the zone Bundesliga (Relegation)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, St. Pauli won 0.

St. Pauli is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Werder has been on a rough run of results (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

There will not play in St. Pauli: Hountondji A. (Ankle Injury) Jones R.J. (Injury) Nemeth D. (Groin Injury)

There will not play in Werder: Adeh W. (Knee Injury) Boniface V. (Knee Injury) Coulibaly K. (Thigh Injury) Pieper A. (Knee Injury) Weiser M. (Knee Injury) Wober M. (Muscle Injury)

In the last 13 head-to-head matches, St. Pauli won 4 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 15:15. (average 1.2:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, St. Pauli won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 9:6. (average 1.3:0.9).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Werder Bremen	7	3	3	1	15:14	1	12

Outrights of German Bundesliga for now

Werder Bremen: 0.45%

Last Results with these Odds

Werder Bremen - the odds 2.64 are the expected chance of winning is 35.94%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC St. Pauli
German Bundesliga
14.02.26	Bayer Leverkusen - St. Pauli	4:0 ✺
07.02.26	St. Pauli - Stuttgart	2:1 ✺
German DFB Pokal
03.02.26	Bayer Leverkusen - St. Pauli	3:0 ✺
German Bundesliga
31.01.26	Augsburg - St. Pauli	2:1 ✺
27.01.26	St. Pauli - RB Leipzig	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.1 LWLLT
- Werder Bremen
German Bundesliga
14.02.26	Werder Bremen - Bayern Munich	0:3 ✺
07.02.26	Freiburg - Werder Bremen	1:0 ✺
31.01.26	Werder Bremen - Borussia Mönchengladbach	1:1 ✺
27.01.26	Werder Bremen - Hoffenheim	0:2 ✺
24.01.26	Bayer Leverkusen - Werder Bremen	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.2 LLTLL

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
04.01.26	St. Pauli - Werder Bremen	0:0
German Bundesliga
04.10.25	Werder Bremen - St. Pauli	1:0
27.04.25	Werder Bremen - St. Pauli	0:0
14.12.24	St. Pauli - Werder Bremen	0:2
German 2 Bundesliga
09.04.22	St. Pauli - Werder Bremen	1:1
30.10.21	Werder Bremen - St. Pauli	1:1
Club Friendly
13.11.20	Werder Bremen - St. Pauli	2:4

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