Match Info

Bundesliga - Round 23

Date: 22 February 2026, Sunday

Location: Millerntor-Stadion (Hamburg)

Referee: Storks S. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	St. Pauli		Werder Bremen

	1	X	2
	2.75	3.2	2.75	Watch
	2.82	3.05	2.72	Watch
	2.82	3.2	2.79
	2.71	3.16	2.76	Watch
	2.63	2.9	2.63	Watch
	2.84	3.2	2.86	Watch
	2.75	3.1	2.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.76 ↓ (2.84)	3.12 ↑ (3.09)	2.75 ↑ (2.64)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 1.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

St. Pauli
34.6%

Draw
30.7%

Werder Bremen
34.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.4%

30.7%

35.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.8%

31%

35.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

St. Pauli has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.2%)

Werder Bremen has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for St. Pauli than the current prediction. (-0.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Werder Bremen than the current prediction. (+0.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
34.2%	52.6%	13.2%

St. Pauli - Werder Bremen Predictions

Users Predictions: 37 users predict this event. St. Pauli will win (votes: 13 - 35.1%). Werder will win (votes: 4 - 10.8%). It will Tie (votes: 20 - 54.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 38% – 70.2%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Werder (votes: 1 - 25%). Tie (votes: 3 - 75%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 2 - 100%) .

DNB - Werder (1.83) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Werder (1.44) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.5 - Werder (2.76) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Werder (votes: 4 - 57.1%). Tie (votes: 3 - 42.9%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Vasilj N. (G) 15. Ando T. 5. Wahl H. 3. Mets K. 2. Saliakas M. 8. Smith E. 7. Irvine J. (C) 11. Pyrka A. 16. Fujita J. 10. Sinani D. 19. Kaars M.	30. Backhaus M. (G) 4. Stark N. 14. Lynen S. 32. Friedl M. (C) 11. Njinmah J. 6. Stage J. 18. Puertas C. 23. Schmidt I. 20. Schmid R. 7. Mbangula S. 17. Grull M.
Substitutes
9. Ceesay A. 25. Dzwigala A. 18. Hara T. 23. Oppie L. 28. Pereira Lage M. 20. Rasmussen M. 21. Ritzka L. 6. Sands J. 1. Voll B. A. (G)	10. Bittencourt L. 24. Covic P. 2. Deman O. 13. Hein K. (G) 22. Malatini J. 19. Milosevic J. 3. Sugawara Y. 9. Topp K.
Coaches
Blessin A.	Thioune D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
7', Schmidt I. 🟨,
29', Kaars M. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
53', Kaars M. ↓, Pereira Lage M. ↑,
54', Lynen S. 🟨,
55', 1 - 0, Wahl H. ⚽, Sinani D. (A),
60', Schmid R. ↓, Bittencourt L. ↑,
61', Grull M. ↓, Milosevic J. ↑,
62', 1 - 1, Milosevic J. ⚽,
70', 2 - 1, Fujita J. ⚽, Saliakas M. (A),
75', Friedl M. 🟨,
76', Saliakas M. 🟨,
76', Milosevic J. 🟨,
76', Bittencourt L. 🟨,
79', Puertas C. ↓, Topp K. ↑,
80', Irvine J. ↓, Sands J. ↑,
87', Fujita J. ↓, Rasmussen M. ↑,
88', Stark N. 🟨,

Preview

This time, only outsiders will meet in a game (ranked 17 in the zone Relegation ~ 2. Bundesliga and 16 in the zone Bundesliga (Relegation)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, St. Pauli won 0.

St. Pauli is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Werder has been on a rough run of results (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

There will not play in St. Pauli: Hountondji A. (Ankle Injury) Jones R.J. (Injury) Nemeth D. (Groin Injury)

There will not play in Werder: Adeh W. (Knee Injury) Boniface V. (Knee Injury) Coulibaly K. (Thigh Injury) Pieper A. (Knee Injury) Weiser M. (Knee Injury) Wober M. (Muscle Injury)

In the last 13 head-to-head matches, St. Pauli won 4 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 15:15. (average 1.2:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, St. Pauli won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 9:6. (average 1.3:0.9).

Outrights of German Bundesliga for now

Werder Bremen: 0.23%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
8	Werder Bremen	4	2	1	1	8:8	0	7

Last Results with these Odds

Werder Bremen - the odds 2.64 are the expected chance of winning is 35.94%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC St. Pauli
German Bundesliga
14.02.26	Bayer Leverkusen - St. Pauli	4:0 ✺
07.02.26	St. Pauli - Stuttgart	2:1 ✺
German DFB Pokal
03.02.26	Bayer Leverkusen - St. Pauli	3:0 ✺
German Bundesliga
31.01.26	Augsburg - St. Pauli	2:1 ✺
27.01.26	St. Pauli - RB Leipzig	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.1 LWLLT
- Werder Bremen
German Bundesliga
14.02.26	Werder Bremen - Bayern Munich	0:3 ✺
07.02.26	Freiburg - Werder Bremen	1:0 ✺
31.01.26	Werder Bremen - Borussia Mönchengladbach	1:1 ✺
27.01.26	Werder Bremen - Hoffenheim	0:2 ✺
24.01.26	Bayer Leverkusen - Werder Bremen	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.2 LLTLL

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
04.01.26	St. Pauli - Werder Bremen	0:0
German Bundesliga
04.10.25	Werder Bremen - St. Pauli	1:0
27.04.25	Werder Bremen - St. Pauli	0:0
14.12.24	St. Pauli - Werder Bremen	0:2
German 2 Bundesliga
09.04.22	St. Pauli - Werder Bremen	1:1
30.10.21	Werder Bremen - St. Pauli	1:1
Club Friendly
13.11.20	Werder Bremen - St. Pauli	2:4

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