Match Info

Bundesliga - Round 24

Date: 28 February 2026, Saturday

Location: PreZero Arena (Sinsheim)

Referee: Aytekin D. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	StarTimes App, Startimes Sports Arena
Albania	Tring Sport 3
Argentina	Disney+
Australia	beIN Connect
Austria	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Bundesliga 4
Brazil	Canal GOAT
Bulgaria	Play Diema Xtra
Canada	DAZN Canada, OneSoccer
China	Migu, QQ Sports
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 3, Oneplay
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Veikkaus TV, Viaplay 1 Urheilu, Viaplay
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 4, Free
Germany	DAZN Deutsch, Sky Go Germany, Sky Sport Bundesliga 4, WOW
Greece	Nova Sports 5
Hong-kong	beIN SPORTS MAX, M Plus Live
Iceland	Viaplay
India	Sony LIV, Vision+
Indonesia	K-Vision
Japan	DAZN Japan
Laos	beIN Connect
Malaysia	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Mexico	Izzi TV, Sky Sport
Netherlands	Viaplay
New-zealand	beIN Connect
North-central-america	Sky Sports Norte
Norway	TV2 Play, Viaplay
Pakistan	Tapmad
Peru	Disney+
Philippines	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Poland	Eleven Sports 2
Portugal	DAZN / App
Romania	Prima Sport PPV 2
Russia	Okko Sport
Saudi-arabia	MBC Shahid
Serbia	Arena Sport 6
Singapore	beIN SPORTS MAX
Slovakia	Nova Sport 3, Sport TV2, Voyo
South-korea	Coupang Play
Spain	DAZN Espana
Sweden	Viaplay, V Sport 1
Switzerland	Sky Sport Bundesliga 4
Thailand	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX, True ID, True Premier Football 4
Turkey	S Sport+, Tivibu Spor 3
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+
Venezuela	Disney+
Vietnam	TV 360
World	Onefootball


	Hoffenheim		St. Pauli

	1	X	2
	1.5	4.33	6	Watch
	1.51	4.4	6
	1.55	4.15	6.4	Watch
	1.55	4.4	6.7
	1.56	4.26	5.86	Watch
	1.5	4	5.75
	1.55	4.47	6.19	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.53 ↓ (1.58)	4.29 ↓ (4.57)	6.13 ↑ (5.03)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.2%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Hoffenheim
62.2%

Draw
22.2%

St. Pauli
15.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

60.2%

20.8%

18.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

61.9%

20.2%

18.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Hoffenheim has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2%)

St. Pauli has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Hoffenheim than the current prediction. (-0.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for St. Pauli than the current prediction. (+2.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
80.5%	12.2%	7.3%

Hoffenheim - St. Pauli Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1.5 - Hoffenheim (2.46) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Hoffenheim (1.14) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Hoffenheim will win (33 of 41 users predict this - 80.49%).
Confidence interval (95%): 68.36% – 92.62%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Hoffenheim will win (7 of 7 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 9 Selected Experts predict this event. Hoffenheim (votes: 9 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Baumann O. (C) 2. Hranac R. 5. Kabak O. 21. Hajdari A. 34. Coufal V. 6. Promel G. 7. Avdullahu L. 18. Burger W. 29. Toure B. 27. Kramaric A. 11. Asllani F.	22. Vasilj N. (G) 5. Wahl H. 8. Smith E. 3. Mets K. 2. Saliakas M. 7. Irvine J. (C) 6. Sands J. 11. Pyrka A. 16. Fujita J. 28. Pereira Lage M. 10. Sinani D.
Substitutes
25. Akpoguma K. 13. Bernardo 20. Campbell C. 10. Damar M. 31. Eduardo Y. 15. Gendrey V. 19. Lemperle T. 37. Philipp L. (G) 22. Prass A.	9. Ceesay A. 25. Dzwigala A. 18. Hara T. 19. Kaars M. 24. Metcalfe C. 23. Oppie L. 21. Ritzka L. 34. Robatsch J. 1. Voll B. A. (G)
Coaches
Ilzer C.	Blessin A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
21', Kabak O. 🟨,
38', Sinani D. 🟨,
45+4', 0 - 1, Pereira Lage M. ⚽, Saliakas M. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Mets K. ↓, Ritzka L. ↑,
62', Burger W. ↓, Prass A. ↑,
74', Hranac R. ↓, Bernardo ↑,
74', Kramaric A. ↓, Lemperle T. ↑,
75', Pereira Lage M. ↓, Metcalfe C. ↑,
80', Fujita J. 🟨,
83', Ilzer C. 🟨,
86', Hajdari A. ↓, Campbell C. ↑,
88', Sinani D. ↓, Ceesay A. ↑,

Preview

One of the top teams will play against one of the outsiders (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: ) and 16 in the zone Bundesliga (Relegation)).

Hoffenheim is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

St. Pauli's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

In this match, Hoffenheim is the undisputed favorite.

There will not play in Hoffenheim: Bebou I. (Illness) Campbell C. (Ankle Injury) Frees K. (Illness) Hlozek A. (Calf Injury) Machida K. (Knee Injury) Moerstedt M. (Illness)

There will not play in St. Pauli: Hountondji A. (Ankle Injury) Jones R.J. (Injury) Nemeth D. (Groin Injury)

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Hoffenheim won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 5:6. (average 1.3:1.5).

Including home match between the teams, Hoffenheim won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:2.

Outrights of German Bundesliga for now

Hoffenheim: 0.45%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
14	Hoffenheim	4	1	0	3	7:10	-3	3

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- TSG Hoffenheim
German Bundesliga
21.02.26	Köln - Hoffenheim	2:2 ✺
14.02.26	Hoffenheim - Freiburg	3:0 ✺
08.02.26	Bayern Munich - Hoffenheim	5:1 ✺
31.01.26	Hoffenheim - Union Berlin	3:1 ✺
27.01.26	Werder Bremen - Hoffenheim	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.3 TWLWW
- FC St. Pauli
German Bundesliga
22.02.26	St. Pauli - Werder Bremen	2:1 ✺
14.02.26	Bayer Leverkusen - St. Pauli	4:0 ✺
07.02.26	St. Pauli - Stuttgart	2:1 ✺
German DFB Pokal
03.02.26	Bayer Leverkusen - St. Pauli	3:0 ✺
German Bundesliga
31.01.26	Augsburg - St. Pauli	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.5 WLWLL

Latest Head to Head

German DFB Pokal
28.10.25	St. Pauli - Hoffenheim	3:2 penalties
German Bundesliga
19.10.25	St. Pauli - Hoffenheim	0:3
14.03.25	St. Pauli - Hoffenheim	1:0
02.11.24	Hoffenheim - St. Pauli	0:2

Upcoming Matches