Match Info

Bundesliga - Round 24

Date: 28 February 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Location: PreZero Arena (Sinsheim) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Aytekin D. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Africa	—	StarTimes App, Startimes Sports Arena
Albania	15:30	Tring Sport 3
Argentina	11:30	Disney+
Australia	01:30	beIN Connect
Austria	15:30	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Bundesliga 4
Brazil	11:30	Canal GOAT
Bulgaria	16:30	Play Diema Xtra
Canada	09:30	DAZN Canada, OneSoccer
China	22:30	Migu, QQ Sports
Czech Republic	15:30	Nova Sport 3, Oneplay
Denmark	15:30	Viaplay
Finland	16:30	Veikkaus TV, Viaplay 1 Urheilu, Viaplay
France	15:30	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 4, Free
Germany	15:30	DAZN Deutsch, Sky Go Germany, Sky Sport Bundesliga 4, WOW
Greece	16:30	Nova Sports 5
Hong Kong	22:30	beIN SPORTS MAX, M Plus Live
Iceland	14:30	Viaplay
India	20:00	Sony LIV, Vision+
Indonesia	21:30	K-Vision
Japan	23:30	DAZN Japan
Laos	21:30	beIN Connect
Malaysia	22:30	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Mexico	08:30	Izzi TV, Sky Sport
Netherlands	15:30	Viaplay
New Zealand	03:30	beIN Connect
North Central America	—	Sky Sports Norte
Norway	15:30	TV2 Play, Viaplay
Pakistan	19:30	Tapmad
Peru	09:30	Disney+
Philippines	22:30	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Poland	15:30	Eleven Sports 2
Portugal	14:30	DAZN / App
Romania	16:30	Prima Sport PPV 2
Russia	17:30	Okko Sport
Saudi Arabia	17:30	MBC Shahid
Serbia	15:30	Arena Sport 6
Singapore	22:30	beIN SPORTS MAX
Slovakia	15:30	Nova Sport 3, Sport TV2, Voyo
South Korea	23:30	Coupang Play
Spain	15:30	DAZN Espana
Sweden	15:30	Viaplay, V Sport 1
Switzerland	15:30	Sky Sport Bundesliga 4
Thailand	21:30	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX, True ID, True Premier Football 4
Turkey	17:30	S Sport+, Tivibu Spor 3
Uruguay	11:30	Disney+
Usa	09:30	ESPN App, ESPN+
Venezuela	10:30	Disney+
Vietnam	21:30	TV 360
International	14:30	Onefootball


	Hoffenheim		St. Pauli

	1	X	2
	1.5	4.33	6	Watch
	1.51	4.4	6
	1.55	4.15	6.4	Watch
	1.55	4.4	6.7
	1.56	4.26	5.86	Watch
	1.5	4	5.75
	1.55	4.47	6.19	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.53 ↓ (1.58)	4.29 ↓ (4.57)	6.13 ↑ (5.03)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Hoffenheim
62.2%

Draw
22.2%

St. Pauli
15.5%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

60.2%

20.8%

18.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

61.9%

20%

18.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Hoffenheim has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2%)

St. Pauli has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Hoffenheim than the current prediction. (-0.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for St. Pauli than the current prediction. (+2.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
80.5%	12.2%	7.3%

Hoffenheim - St. Pauli Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1.5 - Hoffenheim (2.46) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Hoffenheim (1.14) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Hoffenheim will win (33 of 41 users predict this - 80.49%).
Confidence interval (95%): 68.36% – 92.62%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Hoffenheim will win (7 of 7 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 9 Selected Experts predict this event. Hoffenheim (votes: 9 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Baumann O. (C) 2. Hranac R. 5. Kabak O. 21. Hajdari A. 34. Coufal V. 6. Promel G. 7. Avdullahu L. 18. Burger W. 29. Toure B. 27. Kramaric A. 11. Asllani F.	22. Vasilj N. (G) 5. Wahl H. 8. Smith E. 3. Mets K. 2. Saliakas M. 7. Irvine J. (C) 6. Sands J. 11. Pyrka A. 16. Fujita J. 28. Pereira Lage M. 10. Sinani D.
Substitutes
25. Akpoguma K. 13. Bernardo 20. Campbell C. 10. Damar M. 31. Eduardo Y. 15. Gendrey V. 19. Lemperle T. 37. Philipp L. (G) 22. Prass A.	9. Ceesay A. 25. Dzwigala A. 18. Hara T. 19. Kaars M. 24. Metcalfe C. 23. Oppie L. 21. Ritzka L. 34. Robatsch J. 1. Voll B. A. (G)
Coaches
Ilzer C.	Blessin A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
21', Kabak O. 🟨,
38', Sinani D. 🟨,
45+4', 0 - 1, Pereira Lage M. ⚽, Saliakas M. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Mets K. ↓, Ritzka L. ↑,
62', Burger W. ↓, Prass A. ↑,
74', Hranac R. ↓, Bernardo ↑,
74', Kramaric A. ↓, Lemperle T. ↑,
75', Pereira Lage M. ↓, Metcalfe C. ↑,
80', Fujita J. 🟨,
83', Ilzer C. 🟨,
86', Hajdari A. ↓, Campbell C. ↑,
88', Sinani D. ↓, Ceesay A. ↑,

Preview

One of the top teams will play against one of the outsiders (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: ) and 16 in the zone Bundesliga (Relegation)).

Hoffenheim is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

St. Pauli's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

In this match, Hoffenheim is the undisputed favorite.

There will not play in Hoffenheim: Bebou I. (Illness) Campbell C. (Ankle Injury) Frees K. (Illness) Hlozek A. (Calf Injury) Machida K. (Knee Injury) Moerstedt M. (Illness)

There will not play in St. Pauli: Hountondji A. (Ankle Injury) Jones R.J. (Injury) Nemeth D. (Groin Injury)

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Hoffenheim won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 5:6. (average 1.3:1.5).

Including home match between the teams, Hoffenheim won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:2.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
10	Hoffenheim	7	3	0	4	14:14	0	9

Outrights of German Bundesliga for now

Hoffenheim: 0.24%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- TSG Hoffenheim
German Bundesliga
21.02.26	Köln - Hoffenheim	2:2 ✺
14.02.26	Hoffenheim - Freiburg	3:0 ✺
08.02.26	Bayern Munich - Hoffenheim	5:1 ✺
31.01.26	Hoffenheim - Union Berlin	3:1 ✺
27.01.26	Werder Bremen - Hoffenheim	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.3 TWLWW
- FC St. Pauli
German Bundesliga
22.02.26	St. Pauli - Werder Bremen	2:1 ✺
14.02.26	Bayer Leverkusen - St. Pauli	4:0 ✺
07.02.26	St. Pauli - Stuttgart	2:1 ✺
German DFB Pokal
03.02.26	Bayer Leverkusen - St. Pauli	3:0 ✺
German Bundesliga
31.01.26	Augsburg - St. Pauli	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.5 WLWLL

Latest Head to Head

German DFB Pokal
28.10.25	St. Pauli - Hoffenheim	3:2 penalties
German Bundesliga
19.10.25	St. Pauli - Hoffenheim	0:3
14.03.25	St. Pauli - Hoffenheim	1:0
02.11.24	Hoffenheim - St. Pauli	0:2

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