Match Info

Date: 13 June 2022, Monday

Location: Estadio Olimpico Nilton Santos (Rio de Janeiro)

Referee: Rodrigues de Souza F. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	CMore, CMore Sport
Slovenia	Arena Sport


	Botafogo RJ		Avaí

	1	X	2
	1.83	3.4	4.75
	1.85	3.4	4.6
	1.8	3.35	4.6
	1.82	3.3	4.4
	1.84	3.46	4.92
	1.8	3.3	4.5	Watch
	1.85	3.52	4.45	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.83 ↓ (1.92)	3.39 ↑ (3.2)	4.6 ↑ (4.19)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Botafogo RJ
51.7%

Draw
27.8%

Avaí
20.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48.6%

29.2%

22.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46.5%

30.5%

23.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Botafogo RJ has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.1%)

Avaí has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Botafogo RJ than the current prediction. (-5.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Botafogo RJ that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Avaí than the current prediction. (+2.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
74.6%	13.6%	11.9%

Botafogo RJ - Avaí Predictions

Users Predictions: 59 users predict this event. Botafogo will win (votes: 44 - 74.6%). Avaí will win (votes: 7 - 11.9%). It will Tie (votes: 8 - 13.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Botafogo: 63.5% – 85.7%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Preview

In a match only outsiders will meet (ranked 16 and 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie B).

Botafogo has the most likely position - 20 (9.18%), has project points - 44, has currently - 12, has a chance of relegated (36%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Avaí has the most likely position - 20 (15.8%), has project points - 41, has currently - 11, has a chance of relegated (48%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

This event has quality 40, importance 46, match rating 43. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Botafogo won 2.

Botafogo is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Avaí has a line of defeats in latest matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Avaí could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Botafogo is a favorite.

There will not play in Botafogo: Carlinhos (Injury) Diego Loureiro (Injury) Gustavo Sauer (Injury) Philipe Sampaio (Injury) Rafael (Injury)

There will not play in Avaí: Diego Matos (Red Card) Galdezani M. (Injury)

Last 6 head-to-head matches Botafogo won 2 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 7-6.

Including matches at home between the teams Botafogo won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 3-4.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Botafogo RJ
Brazilian Serie A
09.06.22	Palmeiras - Botafogo RJ	4:0 ✺
06.06.22	Botafogo RJ - Goiás	1:2 ✺
29.05.22	Coritiba - Botafogo RJ	1:0 ✺
21.05.22	América Mineiro - Botafogo RJ	1:1 ✺
15.05.22	Botafogo RJ - Fortaleza	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7 LLLTW
- Avaí
Brazilian Serie A
08.06.22	Atlético Goianiense - Avaí	2:1 ✺
04.06.22	Avaí - São Paulo	1:1 ✺
29.05.22	Atlético Mineiro - Avaí	2:1 ✺
22.05.22	Athletico Paranaense - Avaí	2:1 ✺
15.05.22	Avaí - Juventude	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.3 LTLLL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
02.10.21	Botafogo RJ - Avaí	1:2
03.07.21	Avaí - Botafogo RJ	1:1
Brazilian Serie A
11.11.19	Botafogo RJ - Avaí	2:0
04.08.19	Avaí - Botafogo RJ	0:2
18.10.17	Avaí - Botafogo RJ	1:1
26.06.17	Botafogo RJ - Avaí	0:2

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