Match Info

National League - Round 23

Date: 21 December 2025, Sunday

Location: St James Park (Brackley)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Brackley Town		Morecambe

	1	X	2
	2.15	3.3	3
	2.05	3.4	2.9
	2.1	3.4	3.2
	2.21	3.4	3.27
	2.1	3.53	3.22	Watch
	2.15	3.1	3.1
	2.11	3.2	3.19
	2.16	3.25	3.33
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.13 ↑ (1.88)	3.32 ↓ (3.38)	3.15 ↓ (3.72)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 5.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Brackley Town
43.2%

Draw
27.7%

Morecambe
29.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48.5%

27%

24.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.3%

26.6%

24.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Brackley Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Brackley Town's form might have worsened.

Morecambe has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Brackley Town than the current prediction. (+6.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Brackley Town, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Morecambe than the current prediction. (-5.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Morecambe, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	0%	33.3%

Brackley Town - Morecambe Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Brackley will win (votes: 4 - 66.7%). Morecambe will win (votes: 2 - 33.3%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Brackley (votes: 1 - 50%). Morecambe (votes: 1 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 3 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
21. Gregory C. (G) 5. Morrison K. 6. Dean G. 12. Nottingham M. 2. Lyttle T. 23. Byrne S. 4. Price J. 10. Roberts M. 3. Calder R. 11. Lowe M. 7. Pollock S.	40. Blackman J. (G) 2. Payne L. 5. Kacurri M. 14. Sesay A. (C) 12. Aarons R. 3. Conte R. 36. Nolan J. 8. Azeez M. 33. Raikhy A. 32. Thomas G. 18. Tollitt B.
Substitutes
8. Brown Z. 27. Hall C. 1. Maxted J. (G) 97. Murombedzi S. 28. Newton D. 15. Pendleton B. 22. Wodskou B.	1. Boney M. (G) 19. Campbell M. 29. Dixon-Bonner E. 6. Francillette L. 9. Panayiotou H. 20. Sangare M. 28. Sutton E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
31', 0 - 1, Thomas G. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
48', Payne L. 🟨,
50', Morrison K. 🟨,
52', Dean G. 🟨,
57', Price J. ↓, Newton D. ↑,
59', Conte R. ↓, Sangare M. ↑,
59', Payne L. ↓, Francillette L. ↑,
68', 0 - 2, Thomas G. ⚽,
69', Morrison K. ↓, Wodskou B. ↑,
70', Newton D. 🟨,
79', Raikhy A. ↓, Sutton E. ↑,
79', Aarons R. ↓, Dixon-Bonner E. ↑,
82', Calder R. ↓, Hall C. ↑,
83', Pollock S. ↓, Brown Z. ↑,
90+1', Nolan J. 🟨,
90+7', Nolan J. ↓, Campbell M. ↑,
90+9', Sangare M. 🟨,

Preview

In this match, only outsiders will meet (ranked 19 and 23 in the zone Relegation).

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Brackley may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Brackley will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Brackley won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:2.

Last Results with these Odds

Morecambe - the odds 3.72 are the expected chance of winning is 24.54%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Brackley Town
English FA Trophy
13.12.25	Boreham Wood - Brackley Town	3:4 penalties ✺
English FA Cup
08.12.25	Brackley Town - Burton Albion	1:3 ✺
English National League
29.11.25	Woking - Brackley Town	2:0 ✺
English National League Cup
25.11.25	Brackley Town - Burnley U21	2:1 ✺
English National League
22.11.25	Brackley Town - York City	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.9 WLLWL
- Morecambe
English FA Trophy
13.12.25	Gateshead - Morecambe	0:3 ✺
English National League
06.12.25	Morecambe - Boston United	0:3 ✺
29.11.25	Braintree Town - Morecambe	1:0 ✺
22.11.25	Morecambe - Yeovil Town	0:0 ✺
18.11.25	Morecambe - Brackley Town	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11 WLLTW

Latest Head to Head

English National League
18.11.25	Morecambe - Brackley Town	2:0

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