Match Info

Liga Portugal - Round 8

Date: 9 October 2026, Friday

Location: Estádio Municipal de Braga (Braga)

Referee: Pinheiro J. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


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World	OneFootball TV


	Braga		Sporting Lisbon

	1	X	2
	2.85	3.00	2.50	Watch
	2.95	3.10	2.40
	3.15	3.30	2.23	Watch
	3.15	3.15	2.52
	3.1	3.26	2.4	Watch
	3.10	3.10	2.45
	2.98	3.09	2.62
	2.90	3.15	2.46
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.02 ↓ (3.3)	3.14 ↓ (3.38)	2.45 ↑ (2.18)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Braga
31.3%

Draw
30.1%

Sporting Lisbon
38.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

28.7%

28%

43.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28.9%

28.2%

43.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Braga has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.6%)

Sporting Lisbon has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Braga than the current prediction. (-2.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sporting Lisbon than the current prediction. (+4.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	15.4%	84.6%

Braga - Sporting Lisbon Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Sporting (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (1.84) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 2.25 - over (1.87) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 0.5, 1st Half - over (1.41) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

New Consensus by Tipsters:

BTTS - yes (1.91) (votes: 100%) ⭐ Best Value.

Users Predictions: Sporting Lisbon will win (11 of 13 users predict this - 84.62%).
Confidence interval (95%): 65.01% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Bernardo (G) 22. Sergio Barcia 6. Vitor Carvalho 44. Bajrami A. 2. Gomez V. 29. Gorby 8. Moutinho J. 11. Gabriel Silva 23. Huseinbasic D. 21. Horta R. (C) 10. Victor P.	1. Silva R. (G) 22. Fresneda I. 72. Quaresma E. 25. Inacio G. (C) 13. Vagiannidis G. 4. Andersen S. 5. Altimira S. 77. Doumbia I. 10. Catamo G. 7. Ioannidis F. 19. Irankunda N.
Substitutes
26. Arrey-Mbi B. 78. Carvalho J. (G) 20. Dorgeles M. 14. Lagerbielke G. 16. Marques T. 77. Martinez G. 17. Milosevic J. 9. Navarro F. 50. Rodrigues D. 34. Tiknaz D. E. 7. Travassos 19. Wind J.	20. Araujo M. 55. Ba I. 28. Derry J. 73. Felicissimo E. 58. Goncalves F. 30. Kaique Pereira (G) 31. Luis Guilherme 9. Nel R. 21. Pedro Lima 8. Simoes J. 97. Suarez L. 17. Zalazar R.
Coaches
Vicens C.	Borges R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
41', 1 - 0, Silva R. (Own goal),
2nd Half (0 - 3)
58', Vagiannidis G. ↓, Araujo M. ↑,
58', Andersen S. ↓, Zalazar R. ↑,
59', Ioannidis F. ↓, Suarez L. ↑,
66', 1 - 1, Suarez L. ⚽, Irankunda N. (A),
66', Huseinbasic D. ↓, Dorgeles M. ↑,
67', Gabriel Silva ↓, Martinez G. ↑,
71', 1 - 2, Bernardo (Own goal),
74', Moutinho J. ↓, Marques T. ↑,
74', Victor P. ↓, Wind J. ↑,
79', Irankunda N. ↓, Goncalves F. ↑,
82', 1 - 3, Zalazar R. ⚽, Catamo G. (A),
84', Zalazar R. ↓, Simoes J. ↑,
86', Bajrami A. ↓, Navarro F. ↑,
88', Sergio Barcia 🟨,
89', Goncalves F. 🟨,

Preview

A high-stakes showdown between two teams from the upper tier of the standings (ranked 6th and 3rd in the Promotion - Champions League (Qualification: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Braga won 0.

Both teams look competitive and well-prepared heading into this encounter.

A closely fought contest is anticipated, with Sporting holding a narrow advantage.

Confirmed absences for Braga: Niakate S. (Achilles Tendon Injury).

Confirmed absences for Sporting: Ba I. (Knock) Debast Z. (Red Card) Santos N. (Muscle Injury) Zekri M. (Muscle Injury).

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Braga has recorded 4 wins, 5 draws, and 11 losses, with a goal aggregate of 19:42 (averaging 1:2.1 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Braga against this opponent, the record stands at 3 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses, with 13:14 goals (averaging 1.4:1.6 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Sporting CP	8	5	3	0	20:9	11	18
8	Braga	7	3	2	2	8:8	0	11

Last Results with these Odds

Sporting Lisbon - the odds 2.18 are the expected chance of winning is 43.37%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SC Braga
Liga Portugal
20.09.26	Santa Clara - Braga	0:0 ✺
14.09.26	Braga - Estoril Praia	1:0 ✺
10.09.26	Estrela da Amadora - Braga	2:1 ✺
05.09.26	Alverca - Braga	1:2 ✺
31.08.26	Braga - Vitoria Guimarães	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 TWLWW
- Sporting Lisbon
Liga Portugal
19.09.26	Sporting Lisbon - Arouca	2:2 ✺
13.09.26	Famalicão - Sporting Lisbon	1:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
09.09.26	Sporting Lisbon - Galatasaray	3:1 ✺
Liga Portugal
05.09.26	Sporting Lisbon - Nacional	2:0 ✺
28.08.26	Rio Ave - Sporting Lisbon	0:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.4 TTWWW

Latest Head to Head

Liga Portugal
07.03.26	Braga - Sporting Lisbon	2:2
05.10.25	Sporting Lisbon - Braga	1:1
07.04.25	Sporting Lisbon - Braga	1:1
10.11.24	Braga - Sporting Lisbon	2:4
11.02.24	Sporting Lisbon - Braga	5:0
Portuguese League Cup
23.01.24	Braga - Sporting Lisbon	1:0
Liga Portugal
03.09.23	Braga - Sporting Lisbon	1:1

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