Match Info

Serie D - Round 11

Date: 6 July 2025, Sunday

Location: Estádio Bento Freitas (Pelotas)


	Brasil de Pelotas		São Luiz

	1	X	2
	2.25	2.85	3
	2.52	2.82	2.78
	2.67	2.93	2.86
				Watch
	2.53	2.89	2.71
	2.08	2.9	2.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.41 ↓ (2.63)	2.88 ↓ (3.2)	2.85 ↑ (2.4)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Brasil de Pelotas
37.3%

Draw
31.2%

São Luiz
31.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.3%

28.2%

37.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.3%

27.4%

38.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Brasil de Pelotas has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3%)

São Luiz has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and São Luiz might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Brasil de Pelotas than the current prediction. (-4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for São Luiz than the current prediction. (+7.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that São Luiz could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Brasil de Pelotas - São Luiz Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Brasil de Pelotas (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', 0 - 1, Roberto Baggio ⚽,
88', 🟥,

Preview

We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 7 and 8).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Brasil de Pelotas won 2.

Brasil de Pelotas has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

São Luiz is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Brasil de Pelotas will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 15 head-to-head matches, Brasil de Pelotas won 4 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 14:17. (average 0.9:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Brasil de Pelotas won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 7:8. (average 1:1.1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Brasil de Pelotas
Brazilian Serie D
29.06.25	Guarany de Bagé - Brasil de Pelotas	1:0 ✺
14.06.25	Náutico Marcílio Dias - Brasil de Pelotas	1:2 ✺
08.06.25	Brasil de Pelotas - Joinville	1:0 ✺
01.06.25	Joinville - Brasil de Pelotas	1:0 ✺
25.05.25	Brasil de Pelotas - Náutico Marcílio Dias	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 23 LWWLL
- EC São Luiz
Brazilian Serie D
30.06.25	São Luiz - EC São José Porto Alegre	1:2 ✺
14.06.25	Joinville - São Luiz	2:1 ✺
07.06.25	São Luiz - Náutico Marcílio Dias	3:0 ✺
02.06.25	Náutico Marcílio Dias - São Luiz	3:0 ✺
26.05.25	São Luiz - Joinville	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.4 LLWLL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie D
10.05.25	São Luiz - Brasil de Pelotas	1:0
Brazilian Campeonato Gaucho
07.02.24	São Luiz - Brasil de Pelotas	2:2
04.03.23	Brasil de Pelotas - São Luiz	1:0
06.03.22	São Luiz - Brasil de Pelotas	1:1
18.04.21	Brasil de Pelotas - São Luiz	1:0
21.03.21	Brasil de Pelotas - São Luiz	1:1
Brazilian Serie D
31.10.20	Brasil de Pelotas - São Luiz	1:2

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