Match Info

Championship - Round 11

Date: 21 October 2025, Tuesday

Location: Ashton Gate Stadium (Bristol)

Referee: Backhouse A. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Bristol City		Southampton

	1	X	2
	2.35	3.3	2.75	Watch
	2.42	3.45	2.86	Watch
	2.49	3.52	2.92
	3.16	2.41	3.01	Watch
	2.4	3.36	2.79	Watch
	2.5	3.45	2.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.55 (2.55)	3.25 ↓ (3.4)	2.84 ↑ (2.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bristol City
37.2%

Draw
29.3%

Southampton
33.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.6%

27.5%

35.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.9%

26.6%

34.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bristol City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.6%)

Southampton has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bristol City than the current prediction. (+0.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Southampton than the current prediction. (+1.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
47.4%	26.3%	26.3%

Bristol City - Southampton Predictions

Users Predictions: 19 users predict this event. Bristol City will win (votes: 9 - 47.4%). S`hampton will win (votes: 5 - 26.3%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 26.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Bristol City: 24.9% – 69.9%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Bristol City (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
23. Vitek R. (G) 19. Tanner G. 16. Dickie R. (C) 5. Atkinson R. 17. Sykes M. 4. Randell A. 14. Vyner Z. 21. Neto Borges 10. Twine S. 11. Mehmeti A. 18. Riis E.	1. McCarthy A. (G) 12. Edwards R. 15. Wood N. 6. Harwood-Bellis T. 26. Fraser R. 24. Charles S. 20. Jander C. 34. Welington 13. Scienza L. 9. Armstrong A. (C) 19. Archer C.
Substitutes
30. Armstrong S. 7. Hirakawa Y. 9. Mayulu F. 2. McCrorie R. 31. Morrison E. 1. O'Leary M. (G) 29. Pecover L. 24. Roberts H. 25. Yeboah E.	10. Azaz F. 31. Bazunu G. (G) 4. Downes F. 42. Downs D. 18. Fellows T. 3. Manning R. 17. Quarshie J. 46. Robinson J. 5. Stephens J.
Coaches
Struber G.	Still W.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
30', 0 - 1, Armstrong A. ⚽, Charles S. (A),
33', 1 - 1, Mehmeti A. ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
53', Riis E. ↓, Armstrong S. ↑,
57', 2 - 1, Twine S. ⚽,
64', 3 - 1, Twine S. ⚽,
65', Charles S. ↓, Manning R. ↑,
65', Fraser R. ↓, Fellows T. ↑,
65', Archer C. ↓, Robinson J. ↑,
70', Vitek R. 🟨,
72', Sykes M. ↓, McCrorie R. ↑,
72', Twine S. ↓, Pecover L. ↑,
78', Jander C. ↓, Downes F. ↑,
83', Harwood-Bellis T. 🟨,
90+1', Mehmeti A. ↓, Hirakawa Y. ↑,
90+2', Atkinson R. ↓, Roberts H. ↑,
90+5', Fellows T. 🟨,

Preview

One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 7 and 15).

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

There will not play in Bristol City: Bird M. (Calf Injury) Knight J. (Injury) Pring C. (Ankle Injury) Stokes J. (Foot Injury) Williams J. (Ankle Injury)

There will not play in S`hampton: Edozie S. (Inactive)

There are questionable in S`hampton: Jelert E. (Injury)

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Bristol City won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 3:4. (average 0.8:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Bristol City won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:1. (average 1.5:0.5).

Last Results with these Odds

Bristol City - the odds 2.55 are the expected chance of winning is 36.62%, but this team recently wins 18% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Bristol City
English League Championship
18.10.25	Norwich City - Bristol City	0:1 ✺
04.10.25	Bristol City - Queens Park Rangers	1:2 ✺
30.09.25	Bristol City - Ipswich Town	1:1 ✺
27.09.25	Preston North End - Bristol City	0:0 ✺
21.09.25	Bristol City - Oxford United	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 WLTTL
- Southampton FC
English League Championship
18.10.25	Southampton - Swansea City	0:0 ✺
04.10.25	Derby County - Southampton	1:1 ✺
30.09.25	Sheffield United - Southampton	1:2 ✺
27.09.25	Southampton - Middlesbrough	1:1 ✺
English League Cup
23.09.25	Liverpool - Southampton	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 TTWTL

Latest Head to Head

English League Championship
13.02.24	Bristol City - Southampton	3:1
29.11.23	Southampton - Bristol City	1:0
English League Cup
24.09.13	Southampton - Bristol City	2:0
Club Friendly
07.08.12	Bristol City - Southampton	N/A

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