Match Info

Championship - Round 11

Date: 21 October 2025, Tuesday 🏁 Finished

Location: Ashton Gate Stadium (Bristol) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Backhouse A. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Africa	—	DStv Now, SupeSport ESPN 1
Albania	21:00	SuperSport 2
Argentina	16:00	Disney+, FOX Sports 2, FOX Sports
Asia	—	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA English 2, TOD
Australia	06:00	Amazon Prime Video, beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Brazil	16:00	Disney+
Bulgaria	22:00	Diema Sport 2, Play Diema Xtra
Canada	15:00	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Canada
Chile	16:00	Disney+
Colombia	14:00	Disney+
Denmark	21:00	Viaplay
Finland	22:00	Viaplay
France	21:00	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 4, Free
Hong Kong	03:00	myTV SUPER
Hungary	21:00	Match 4
Iceland	19:00	Viaplay
Ireland	20:00	NOW
Japan	04:00	DAZN Japan
Kenya	22:00	Gotv
Malaysia	03:00	Astro Football, Astro Go, Sooka
Mexico	13:00	Disney+, ESPN 2
Netherlands	21:00	Viaplay
Nigeria	20:00	SupeSport ESPN 1
North Central America	—	Disney+ Caribbean
Norway	21:00	Viaplay
Peru	14:00	Disney+
Portugal	20:00	Sport TV4
Serbia	21:00	Arena Sport 7
Slovenia	21:00	Arena Sport 2
South Africa	21:00	SupeSport ESPN
Sweden	21:00	Viaplay
United Kingdom	20:00	NOW TV, Sky Go Extra, Sky Go, Sky Sports Main Event, Sky Sports UHD
Uruguay	16:00	Disney+
Usa	15:00	Paramount+
Venezuela	15:00	Disney+


	Bristol City		Southampton

	1	X	2
	2.35	3.3	2.75	Watch
	2.42	3.45	2.86	Watch
	2.49	3.52	2.92
	3.16	2.41	3.01	Watch
	2.4	3.36	2.79	Watch
	2.5	3.45	2.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.55 (2.55)	3.25 ↓ (3.4)	2.84 ↑ (2.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bristol City
37.2%

Draw
29.3%

Southampton
33.5%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

36.6%

27.5%

35.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.9%

26.6%

34.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bristol City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.6%)

Southampton has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bristol City than the current prediction. (+0.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Southampton than the current prediction. (+1.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
47.4%	26.3%	26.3%

Bristol City - Southampton Predictions

Users Predictions: 19 users predict this event. Bristol City will win (votes: 9 - 47.4%). S`hampton will win (votes: 5 - 26.3%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 26.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Bristol City: 24.9% – 69.9%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Bristol City (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
23. Vitek R. (G) 19. Tanner G. 16. Dickie R. (C) 5. Atkinson R. 17. Sykes M. 4. Randell A. 14. Vyner Z. 21. Neto Borges 10. Twine S. 11. Mehmeti A. 18. Riis E.	1. McCarthy A. (G) 12. Edwards R. 15. Wood N. 6. Harwood-Bellis T. 26. Fraser R. 24. Charles S. 20. Jander C. 34. Welington 13. Scienza L. 9. Armstrong A. (C) 19. Archer C.
Substitutes
30. Armstrong S. 7. Hirakawa Y. 9. Mayulu F. 2. McCrorie R. 31. Morrison E. 1. O'Leary M. (G) 29. Pecover L. 24. Roberts H. 25. Yeboah E.	10. Azaz F. 31. Bazunu G. (G) 4. Downes F. 42. Downs D. 18. Fellows T. 3. Manning R. 17. Quarshie J. 46. Robinson J. 5. Stephens J.
Coaches
Struber G.	Still W.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
30', 0 - 1, Armstrong A. ⚽, Charles S. (A),
33', 1 - 1, Mehmeti A. ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
53', Riis E. ↓, Armstrong S. ↑,
57', 2 - 1, Twine S. ⚽,
64', 3 - 1, Twine S. ⚽,
65', Charles S. ↓, Manning R. ↑,
65', Fraser R. ↓, Fellows T. ↑,
65', Archer C. ↓, Robinson J. ↑,
70', Vitek R. 🟨,
72', Sykes M. ↓, McCrorie R. ↑,
72', Twine S. ↓, Pecover L. ↑,
78', Jander C. ↓, Downes F. ↑,
83', Harwood-Bellis T. 🟨,
90+1', Mehmeti A. ↓, Hirakawa Y. ↑,
90+2', Atkinson R. ↓, Roberts H. ↑,
90+5', Fellows T. 🟨,

Preview

One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 7 and 15).

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

There will not play in Bristol City: Bird M. (Calf Injury) Knight J. (Injury) Pring C. (Ankle Injury) Stokes J. (Foot Injury) Williams J. (Ankle Injury)

There will not play in S`hampton: Edozie S. (Inactive)

There are questionable in S`hampton: Jelert E. (Injury)

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Bristol City won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 3:4. (average 0.8:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Bristol City won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:1. (average 1.5:0.5).

Last Results with these Odds

Bristol City - the odds 2.55 are the expected chance of winning is 36.62%, but this team recently wins 18% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Bristol City
English League Championship
18.10.25	Norwich City - Bristol City	0:1 ✺
04.10.25	Bristol City - Queens Park Rangers	1:2 ✺
30.09.25	Bristol City - Ipswich Town	1:1 ✺
27.09.25	Preston North End - Bristol City	0:0 ✺
21.09.25	Bristol City - Oxford United	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 WLTTL
- Southampton FC
English League Championship
18.10.25	Southampton - Swansea City	0:0 ✺
04.10.25	Derby County - Southampton	1:1 ✺
30.09.25	Sheffield United - Southampton	1:2 ✺
27.09.25	Southampton - Middlesbrough	1:1 ✺
English League Cup
23.09.25	Liverpool - Southampton	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 TTWTL

Latest Head to Head

English League Championship
13.02.24	Bristol City - Southampton	3:1
29.11.23	Southampton - Bristol City	1:0
English League Cup
24.09.13	Southampton - Bristol City	2:0
Club Friendly
07.08.12	Bristol City - Southampton	N/A

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