Match Info

Championship - Play Offs - Semi-finals

Date: 12 May 2026, Tuesday 🏁 Finished

Location: St. Mary's Stadium (Southampton) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Madley A. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Africa	—	DStv Now, Sporty TV, Sporty TV App, StarTimes App, SuperSport Maximo 360, SuperSport Premier League, SupeSport ESPN 2
Argentina	16:00	Disney+, FOX Sports 2
Armenia	23:00	Setanta Sports 2
Asia	—	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 1, beIN Sports MENA English 1, TOD
Australia	05:00	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2
Austria	21:00	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria Premier League, Sky Sport Austria Top Event
Azerbaijan	23:00	Setanta Sports 2
Bolivia	15:00	ESPN 7
Bosnia And Herzegovina	21:00	Arena Sport 1
Brazil	16:00	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN 4, Sky+, Vivo Play, Xsports, Zapping
Bulgaria	22:00	Diema Sport 2, Play Diema Xtra
Canada	15:00	DAZN Canada
Colombia	14:00	ESPN 7
Croatia	21:00	Arena Sport 2, MAXtv To Go
Czech Republic	21:00	Nova Sport 5, Oneplay
Denmark	21:00	TV3 MAX, Viaplay
Ecuador	14:00	ESPN 7
Europe	—	Setanta Sports 2 Baltic
Finland	22:00	Viaplay 2 Urheilu, Viaplay
France	21:00	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 5, Free
Georgia	23:00	Setanta Sports 2
Germany	21:00	Sky Go Germany, Sky Sport Premier League, Sky Sport Top Event, WOW
Greece	22:00	COSMOTE Sport 3
Haiti	15:00	Tele Haiti
Hungary	21:00	Match 4
Iceland	19:00	SÝN Sport Viaplay, Viaplay
India	00:30	FanCode, FanCode
Indonesia	02:00	Vidio
Ireland	20:00	NOW
Israel	22:00	Sport 1
Japan	04:00	DAZN Japan
Kazakhstan	01:00	Setanta Sports 2
Kenya	22:00	Gotv
Kyrgyzstan	01:00	Setanta Sports 2
Malaysia	03:00	Astro Football, Astro Go, Sooka
Mexico	13:00	Disney+, ESPN 3
Moldova	22:00	Setanta Sports 2
Netherlands	21:00	Viaplay
New Zealand	07:00	beIN Connect
Nigeria	20:00	SuperSport Premier League, SupeSport ESPN 2
North Central America	—	Disney+ Caribbean, ESPN Caribbean
Norway	21:00	TV2 Play, Viaplay
Paraguay	15:00	ESPN 7
Peru	14:00	Disney+, ESPN 7
Portugal	20:00	Sport TV3
Serbia	21:00	Arena Premium 5
Singapore	03:00	mio Sports 1
Slovakia	21:00	Nova Sport 5, Voyo
Slovenia	21:00	Arena Sport 2
South Africa	21:00	SuperSport Premier League, SupeSport ESPN 2
Sweden	21:00	Viaplay
Switzerland	21:00	Sky Sport Premier League, Sky Sport Top Event
Tajikistan	00:00	Setanta Sports 2
Turkey	22:00	Exxen
Turkmenistan	00:00	Setanta Sports 2
Ukraine	22:00	Kyivstar TV, Setanta Sports
United Kingdom	20:00	NOW TV, Sky Go Extra, Sky Go, Sky Sports Main Event, Sky Sports UHD
Uruguay	16:00	Disney+
Usa	15:00	CBS Sports Network, Paramount+
Uzbekistan	00:00	Setanta Sports 2
Venezuela	15:00	Disney+, ESPN 7, Inter


	Southampton		Middlesbrough

	1	X	2
	2.4	3.3	2.75	Watch
	2.47	3.35	2.86	Watch
	2.58	3.35	2.97
	2.49	3.4	2.84	Watch
	2.4	3.1	2.88
	2.43	3.42	3.06	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.46 ↑ (2.12)	3.32 ↓ (3.61)	2.89 ↓ (3.23)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Southampton
38.6%

Draw
28.6%

Middlesbrough
32.8%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

44.6%

26.2%

29.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.3%

26.6%

28.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Southampton has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Southampton's form might have worsened.

Middlesbrough has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Southampton than the current prediction. (+6.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Southampton, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Middlesbrough than the current prediction. (-4.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
68.6%	22.9%	8.6%

Southampton - Middlesbrough Predictions

Users Predictions: 33 users predict this event. S`hampton will win (votes: 22 - 66.7%). Middlesbrough will win (votes: 3 - 9.1%). It will Tie (votes: 8 - 24.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for S`hampton: 50.6% – 82.8%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
41. Peretz D. (G) 14. Bree J. 6. Harwood-Bellis T. (C) 15. Wood N. 3. Manning R. 20. Jander C. 24. Charles S. 27. Matsuki K. 10. Azaz F. 13. Scienza L. 11. Stewart R.	31. Brynn S. (G) 12. Ayling L. 6. Fry D. (C) 29. Malanda A. 2. Brittain C. 18. Morris A. 8. McGree R. 3. Targett M. 11. Whittaker M. 9. Conway T. 13. Strelec D.
Substitutes
19. Archer C. 48. Bragg C. 4. Downes F. 23. Edozie S. 18. Fellows T. 9. Larin C. 25. Long G. (G) 5. Stephens J. 34. Welington	16. Browne A. 23. Castledine L. 25. Edmundson G. 14. Gilbert A. 27. Hansen S. 15. Munroe F. 45. Sarmiento J. 22. Silvera S. 32. Wildsmith J. (G)
Coaches
Eckert T.	Hellberg K.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
5', 0 - 1, McGree R. ⚽, Brittain C. (A),
13', McGree R. 🟨,
37', Wood N. 🟨,
38', Ayling L. 🟨,
45+1', 1 - 1, Stewart R. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
56', Azaz F. 🟨,
66', Matsuki K. ↓, Downes F. ↑,
73', Conway T. ↓, Browne A. ↑,
78', Malanda A. 🟨,
83', Strelec D. ↓, Castledine L. ↑,
84', Stewart R. ↓, Larin C. ↑,
85', Scienza L. ↓, Edozie S. ↑,
Extra Time (1 - 0)
92', Brittain C. 🟨,
105', McGree R. ↓, Sarmiento J. ↑,
116', 2 - 1, Charles S. ⚽, Harwood-Bellis T. (A),
119', Jander C. ↓, Bragg C. ↑,
119', Edozie S. ↓, Welington ↑,
119', Ayling L. ↓, Hansen S. ↑,
120+3', Peretz D. 🟨,
120+6', Larin C. 🟨,

Preview

First leg result: 0-0.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, S`hampton won 0.

S`hampton has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Middlesbrough is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Middlesbrough may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

There will not play in S`hampton: McCarthy A. (Wrist Injury) Roerslev Rasmussen M. (Achilles Tendon Injury)

There will not play in Middlesbrough: Jones A. (Ankle Injury) Lenihan D. (Achilles Tendon Injury)

There are questionable in S`hampton: Stephens J. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Middlesbrough: Bangura A. (Injury) Hackney H. (Calf Injury)

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, S`hampton won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 7:11. (average 0.9:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, S`hampton won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:2. (average 1:0.7).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Middlesbrough	12	7	4	1	27:17	10	25
6	Southampton	12	7	3	2	24:12	12	20

Outrights of English League Championship for now

Southampton: 12.66% Middlesbrough: 12.12%

Last Results with these Odds

Southampton - the odds 2.12 are the expected chance of winning is 44.57%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Southampton FC
English League Championship
09.05.26	Middlesbrough - Southampton	0:0 ✺
02.05.26	Preston North End - Southampton	1:3 ✺
28.04.26	Southampton - Ipswich Town	2:2 ✺
English FA Cup
25.04.26	Manchester City - Southampton	2:1 ✺
English League Championship
21.04.26	Southampton - Bristol City	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.4 TWTLT
- Middlesbrough FC
English League Championship
09.05.26	Middlesbrough - Southampton	0:0 ✺
02.05.26	Wrexham - Middlesbrough	2:2 ✺
25.04.26	Middlesbrough - Watford	5:1 ✺
22.04.26	Middlesbrough - Sheffield Wednesday	1:0 ✺
19.04.26	Ipswich Town - Middlesbrough	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.4 TTWWT

Latest Head to Head

English League Championship
09.05.26	Middlesbrough - Southampton	0:0
04.01.26	Middlesbrough - Southampton	4:0
27.09.25	Southampton - Middlesbrough	1:1
29.03.24	Southampton - Middlesbrough	1:1
23.09.23	Middlesbrough - Southampton	2:1
English Premier League
13.05.17	Middlesbrough - Southampton	1:2
11.12.16	Southampton - Middlesbrough	1:0

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