Match Info

Championship - Play Offs - Semi-finals

Date: 12 May 2026, Tuesday

Location: St. Mary's Stadium (Southampton)

Referee: Madley A. (Eng)

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	Southampton		Middlesbrough

	1	X	2
	2.4	3.3	2.75	Watch
	2.47	3.35	2.86	Watch
	2.58	3.35	2.97
	2.49	3.4	2.84	Watch
	2.4	3.1	2.88
	2.43	3.42	3.06	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.46 ↑ (2.12)	3.32 ↓ (3.61)	2.89 ↓ (3.23)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Southampton
38.6%

Draw
28.6%

Middlesbrough
32.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.6%

26.2%

29.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46.5%

27.3%

28.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Southampton has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Southampton's form might have worsened.

Middlesbrough has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Southampton than the current prediction. (+7.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Southampton, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Middlesbrough than the current prediction. (-4.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
68.6%	22.9%	8.6%

Southampton - Middlesbrough Predictions

Users Predictions: 33 users predict this event. S`hampton will win (votes: 22 - 66.7%). Middlesbrough will win (votes: 3 - 9.1%). It will Tie (votes: 8 - 24.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for S`hampton: 50.6% – 82.8%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
41. Peretz D. (G) 14. Bree J. 6. Harwood-Bellis T. (C) 15. Wood N. 3. Manning R. 20. Jander C. 24. Charles S. 27. Matsuki K. 10. Azaz F. 13. Scienza L. 11. Stewart R.	31. Brynn S. (G) 12. Ayling L. 6. Fry D. (C) 29. Malanda A. 2. Brittain C. 18. Morris A. 8. McGree R. 3. Targett M. 11. Whittaker M. 9. Conway T. 13. Strelec D.
Substitutes
19. Archer C. 48. Bragg C. 4. Downes F. 23. Edozie S. 18. Fellows T. 9. Larin C. 25. Long G. (G) 5. Stephens J. 34. Welington	16. Browne A. 23. Castledine L. 25. Edmundson G. 14. Gilbert A. 27. Hansen S. 15. Munroe F. 45. Sarmiento J. 22. Silvera S. 32. Wildsmith J. (G)
Coaches
Eckert T.	Hellberg K.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
5', 0 - 1, McGree R. ⚽, Brittain C. (A),
13', McGree R. 🟨,
37', Wood N. 🟨,
38', Ayling L. 🟨,
45+1', 1 - 1, Stewart R. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
56', Azaz F. 🟨,
66', Matsuki K. ↓, Downes F. ↑,
73', Conway T. ↓, Browne A. ↑,
78', Malanda A. 🟨,
83', Strelec D. ↓, Castledine L. ↑,
84', Stewart R. ↓, Larin C. ↑,
85', Scienza L. ↓, Edozie S. ↑,
Extra Time (1 - 0)
92', Brittain C. 🟨,
105', McGree R. ↓, Sarmiento J. ↑,
116', 2 - 1, Charles S. ⚽, Harwood-Bellis T. (A),
119', Jander C. ↓, Bragg C. ↑,
119', Edozie S. ↓, Welington ↑,
119', Ayling L. ↓, Hansen S. ↑,
120+3', Peretz D. 🟨,
120+6', Larin C. 🟨,

Preview

First leg result: 0-0.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, S`hampton won 0.

S`hampton has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Middlesbrough is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Middlesbrough may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

There will not play in S`hampton: McCarthy A. (Wrist Injury) Roerslev Rasmussen M. (Achilles Tendon Injury)

There will not play in Middlesbrough: Jones A. (Ankle Injury) Lenihan D. (Achilles Tendon Injury)

There are questionable in S`hampton: Stephens J. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Middlesbrough: Bangura A. (Injury) Hackney H. (Calf Injury)

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, S`hampton won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 7:11. (average 0.9:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, S`hampton won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:2. (average 1:0.7).

Outrights of English League Championship for now

Middlesbrough: 12.64% Southampton: 6.85%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Middlesbrough	9	5	3	1	17:12	5	18
16	Southampton	8	4	2	2	19:10	9	10

Last Results with these Odds

Southampton - the odds 2.12 are the expected chance of winning is 44.57%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Southampton FC
English League Championship
09.05.26	Middlesbrough - Southampton	0:0 ✺
02.05.26	Preston North End - Southampton	1:3 ✺
28.04.26	Southampton - Ipswich Town	2:2 ✺
English FA Cup
25.04.26	Manchester City - Southampton	2:1 ✺
English League Championship
21.04.26	Southampton - Bristol City	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.4 TWTLT
- Middlesbrough FC
English League Championship
09.05.26	Middlesbrough - Southampton	0:0 ✺
02.05.26	Wrexham - Middlesbrough	2:2 ✺
25.04.26	Middlesbrough - Watford	5:1 ✺
22.04.26	Middlesbrough - Sheffield Wednesday	1:0 ✺
19.04.26	Ipswich Town - Middlesbrough	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.4 TTWWT

Latest Head to Head

English League Championship
09.05.26	Middlesbrough - Southampton	0:0
04.01.26	Middlesbrough - Southampton	4:0
27.09.25	Southampton - Middlesbrough	1:1
29.03.24	Southampton - Middlesbrough	1:1
23.09.23	Middlesbrough - Southampton	2:1
English Premier League
13.05.17	Middlesbrough - Southampton	1:2
11.12.16	Southampton - Middlesbrough	1:0

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