Match Info

Championship - Round 46

Date: 2 May 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Location: Ashton Gate Stadium (Bristol) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Toner B. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Denmark	13:30	Viaplay
Finland	14:30	Viaplay
Iceland	11:30	Viaplay
Norway	13:30	TV2 Play, Viaplay
Sweden	13:30	Viaplay
United Kingdom	12:30	Sky Sports+


	Bristol City		Stoke City

	1	X	2
	1.91	3.7	3.6	Watch
	1.95	3.75	3.6
	2.03	3.7	3.45	Watch
	1.99	3.87	3.58
	1.95	3.82	3.51	Watch
	1.95	3.5	3.4
	1.96	3.68	3.5	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.96 ↓ (2.09)	3.72 ↑ (3.61)	3.52 ↑ (3.36)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bristol City
47.9%

Draw
25.3%

Stoke City
26.7%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

45.5%

26.3%

28.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.7%

24.1%

30.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bristol City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.4%)

Stoke City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bristol City than the current prediction. (-6.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Bristol City that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Stoke City than the current prediction. (+4.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
81.2%	6.2%	12.5%

Bristol City - Stoke City Predictions

Users Predictions: Bristol City will win (13 of 15 users predict this - 86.67%).
Confidence interval (95%): 69.47% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
23. Vitek R. (G) 2. McCrorie R. 38. Eile N. 16. Dickie R. 21. Neto Borges 4. Randell A. 40. Morsy S. 12. Knight J. (C) 14. Horvat T. 10. Twine S. 11. Burgzorg D.	1. Johansson V. (C) 22. Tchamadeu J. 26. Phillips A. 23. Gibson B. 17. Bocat E. 15. N'Zonzi S. 4. Pearson B. 42. Manhoef M. 10. Bae J. 7. Thomas S. 29. Cisse L.
Substitutes
30. Armstrong S. 20. Bell S. 44. Earthy G. 42. Ezendu D. 24. Naylor S. 18. Riis E. 17. Sykes M. 19. Tanner G. 32. Thomas L. (G)	50. Agina S. 8. Baker L. 11. Bozenik R. 3. Cresswell A. 20. Gallagher S. 21. Rak-Sakyi J. 12. Seko T. 25. Simkin T. (G) 49. Smit M.
Coaches
Hodgson R.	Robins M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
1', 1 - 0, Burgzorg D. ⚽,
35', Pearson B. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Pearson B. ↓, Seko T. ↑,
59', Cisse L. ↓, Gallagher S. ↑,
59', Bae J. ↓, Rak-Sakyi J. ↑,
60', Tchamadeu J. 🟨,
63', McCrorie R. 🟨,
71', Tchamadeu J. ↓, Agina S. ↑,
74', Morsy S. ↓, Sykes M. ↑,
81', Horvat T. ↓, Bell S. ↑,
84', Burgzorg D. ↓, Riis E. ↑,
87', Manhoef M. ↓, Smit M. ↑,
88', 2 - 0, Bell S. ⚽, Dickie R. (A),
90+5', Rak-Sakyi J. 🟨,

Preview

This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 13 and 17).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Bristol City won 1.

Bristol City has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Stoke is on a losing streak (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Bristol City will hold a modest advantage in this match.

There will not play in Bristol City: Atkinson R. (Ankle Injury) Bird M. (Injury) McNally L. (Knee Injury) Williams J. (Hamstring Injury)

There will not play in Stoke: Ampah A. (Hamstring Injury) Lawal B. (Injury) Rigo T. (Injury) Talovierov M. (Ankle Injury) Wilmot B. (Calf Injury)

There are questionable in Stoke: Cresswell A. (Injury) Johansson V. (Shoulder Injury)

In the last 16 head-to-head matches, Bristol City won 8 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 21:22. (average 1.3:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Bristol City won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 9:9. (average 1.1:1.1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
9	Stoke	12	6	2	4	18:16	2	20
14	Bristol City	12	4	3	5	12:15	-3	15

Outrights of English League Championship for now

Bristol City: 1.33%

Last Results with these Odds

Bristol City - the odds 2.09 are the expected chance of winning is 45.46%, but this team recently wins 60% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Bristol City
English League Championship
25.04.26	Birmingham City - Bristol City	2:1 ✺
21.04.26	Southampton - Bristol City	2:2 ✺
18.04.26	Bristol City - Norwich City	2:4 ✺
11.04.26	Queens Park Rangers - Bristol City	0:0 ✺
06.04.26	Bristol City - Sheffield United	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.3 LTLTW
- Stoke City
English League Championship
25.04.26	Stoke City - Portsmouth	1:3 ✺
21.04.26	Stoke City - Millwall	1:3 ✺
18.04.26	Wrexham - Stoke City	2:0 ✺
11.04.26	Stoke City - Blackburn Rovers	1:1 ✺
06.04.26	Derby County - Stoke City	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.2 LLLTL

Latest Head to Head

English League Championship
01.11.25	Stoke City - Bristol City	5:1
12.02.25	Bristol City - Stoke City	2:0
22.10.24	Stoke City - Bristol City	2:2
04.05.24	Stoke City - Bristol City	4:0
30.09.23	Bristol City - Stoke City	2:3
07.04.23	Stoke City - Bristol City	1:2
17.12.22	Bristol City - Stoke City	1:2

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