Match Info

Championship - Round 45

Date: 25 April 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Location: Bet365 Stadium (Stoke on Trent) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Webb D. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Denmark	16:00	Viaplay
Iceland	14:00	Viaplay
Norway	16:00	TV2 Play, Viaplay
Sweden	16:00	Viaplay


	Stoke City		Portsmouth

	1	X	2
	2.05	3.4	3.4	Watch
	2.75	3.3	2.55
	2.22	3.53	3.14
	2.21	3.66	3.32
	2.35	3.53	2.92	Watch
	2.15	3.3	3.1
	2.22	3.5	3.4	Watch
	2.45	3.3	2.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.3 ↓ (2.41)	3.44 ↑ (3.25)	3.09 ↑ (2.8)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Stoke City
41.4%

Draw
27.7%

Portsmouth
30.9%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

38.4%

28.5%

33.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.4%

29.2%

32.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Stoke City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3%)

Portsmouth has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Stoke City than the current prediction. (-2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Portsmouth than the current prediction. (+1.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
43.7%	31.2%	25%

Stoke City - Portsmouth Predictions

Users Predictions: 16 users predict this event. Stoke will win (votes: 7 - 43.8%). Portsmouth will win (votes: 4 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 31.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Stoke: 19.5% – 68.1%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Simkin T. (G) 50. Agina S. 26. Phillips A. 54. Otegbayo R. 17. Bocat E. 4. Pearson B. (C) 12. Seko T. 29. Cisse L. 20. Gallagher S. 7. Thomas S. 11. Bozenik R.	26. Bursik J. (G) 2. Williams J. 14. Matthews H. 55. Dia M. 3. Ogilvie C. 21. Dozzell A. 16. Le Roux L. 10. Segecic A. 8. Swift J. 29. Blair H. 9. Bishop C. (C)
Substitutes
10. Bae J. 8. Baker L. 34. Fielding F. (G) 23. Gibson B. 42. Manhoef M. 15. N'Zonzi S. 21. Rak-Sakyi J. 49. Smit M. 22. Tchamadeu J.	38. Adams E. 27. Alli M. 17. Bowat I. 40. Brown J. 36. Chaplin C. 30. Killip B. (G) 23. Murphy J. 5. Poole R. 20. Waddingham T.
Coaches
Robins M.	Mousinho J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
4', Bursik J. ↓, Killip B. ↑,
32', 0 - 1, Segecic A. ⚽, Blair H. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 2)
46', Gallagher S. ↓, Rak-Sakyi J. ↑,
46', Bocat E. ↓, Gibson B. ↑,
48', 1 - 1, Cisse L. ⚽, Thomas S. (A),
61', Matthews H. 🟨,
61', Matthews H. ↓, Bowat I. ↑,
62', Blair H. ↓, Murphy J. ↑,
63', Agina S. ↓, Tchamadeu J. ↑,
67', 1 - 2, Segecic A. ⚽, Murphy J. (A),
71', Pearson B. ↓, N'Zonzi S. ↑,
78', Swift J. ↓, Brown J. ↑,
79', Bishop C. ↓, Waddingham T. ↑,
79', Otegbayo R. ↓, Manhoef M. ↑,
82', 1 - 3, Segecic A. ⚽,
82', Segecic A. 🟨,

Preview

A mid-table team will face off against the outsider in this match (ranked 17 and 20).

Stoke is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Portsmouth is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Portsmouth may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

There will not play in Stoke: Ampah A. (Hamstring Injury) Gibson B. (Injury) Johansson V. (Shoulder Injury) Lawal B. (Injury) Rigo T. (Injury) Talovierov M. (Ankle Injury) Tchamadeu J. (Hamstring Injury) Wilmot B. (Calf Injury)

There will not play in Portsmouth: Alese A. (Muscle Injury) Anderson K. (Injury) Caballero G. (Inactive) Devlin T. (Injury) Kosznovszky M. (Knee Injury) Swanson Z. (Inactive) Umeh F. (Hamstring Injury)

There are questionable in Stoke: Cresswell A. (Injury)

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Stoke won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 11:4. (average 2.8:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Stoke won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 9:1. (average 4.5:0.5).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
9	Stoke	12	6	2	4	18:16	2	20
11	Portsmouth	12	5	3	4	16:15	1	18

Outrights of English League Championship for now

Portsmouth: 1.55%

Last Results with these Odds

Stoke City - the odds 2.41 are the expected chance of winning is 38.43%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Portsmouth - the odds 2.8 are the expected chance of winning is 33.08%, but this team recently wins 75% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Stoke City
English League Championship
21.04.26	Stoke City - Millwall	1:3 ✺
18.04.26	Wrexham - Stoke City	2:0 ✺
11.04.26	Stoke City - Blackburn Rovers	1:1 ✺
06.04.26	Derby County - Stoke City	2:0 ✺
03.04.26	Stoke City - Sheffield Wednesday	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.5 LLTLW
- Portsmouth FC
English League Championship
21.04.26	Coventry City - Portsmouth	5:1 ✺
18.04.26	Portsmouth - Leicester City	1:0 ✺
14.04.26	Portsmouth - Ipswich Town	2:0 ✺
11.04.26	Middlesbrough - Portsmouth	0:1 ✺
06.04.26	Portsmouth - Oxford United	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 23.8 LWWWT

Latest Head to Head

English League Championship
25.10.25	Portsmouth - Stoke City	0:1
22.01.25	Portsmouth - Stoke City	3:1
02.10.24	Stoke City - Portsmouth	6:1
English League Cup
27.08.14	Stoke City - Portsmouth	3:0

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