Match Info

Date: 17 October 2026, Saturday


	Derby County		Stoke City

	1	X	2
	2.48	3.25	2.80
	2.4	3.25	2.87	Watch
	2.38	3.25	2.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.42 ↓ (2.43)	3.25 (3.25)	2.84 ↑ (2.82)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Derby County
38.5%

Draw
28.7%

Stoke City
32.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.4%

28.6%

33%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.2%

29.2%

32.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Derby County has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)

Stoke City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Derby County than the current prediction. (+0.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Stoke City than the current prediction. (-0.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	0%

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Preview

A struggling side attempts to pull off an upset against a high-flying opponent (ranked 23rd in the Relegation - League One and 4th in the Promotion - Championship Playoffs - Semi - finals).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Derby won 2.

Derby is going through a lean spell lately (last 5 matches: 0 wins).

Stoke is in superb form heading into this trip (last 5 matches: 4 wins).

In this match, both teams have fairly balanced chances of victory.

In the last 14 head-to-head meetings, Derby has recorded 6 wins, 4 draws, and 4 losses, with a goal aggregate of 18:12 (averaging 1.3:0.9 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Derby against this opponent, the record stands at 5 wins, 3 draws, and 0 losses, with 11:1 goals (averaging 1.4:0.1 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Stoke	9	5	1	3	15:13	2	16
23	Derby	9	1	3	5	8:15	-7	6

Last Results with these Odds

Derby County - the odds 2.43 are the expected chance of winning is 38.37%, but this team recently wins 20% of matches with these odds.

Stoke City - the odds 2.82 are the expected chance of winning is 32.98%, but this team recently wins 13% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Derby County
English League Championship
10.10.26	Derby County - Wrexham	1:1 ✺
19.09.26	Burnley - Derby County	1:1 ✺
12.09.26	Derby County - Birmingham City	1:2 ✺
09.09.26	Derby County - West Bromwich Albion	0:1 ✺
05.09.26	West Ham United - Derby County	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.5 TTLLL
- Stoke City
English League Championship
10.10.26	Bolton Wanderers - Stoke City	1:2 ✺
19.09.26	Stoke City - Sheffield United	2:1 ✺
12.09.26	Watford - Stoke City	1:2 ✺
08.09.26	Cardiff City - Stoke City	1:1 ✺
05.09.26	Stoke City - Charlton Athletic	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.8 WWWTW

Latest Head to Head

English League Championship
06.04.26	Derby County - Stoke City	2:0
09.08.25	Stoke City - Derby County	3:1
03.05.25	Derby County - Stoke City	0:0
02.11.24	Stoke City - Derby County	2:1
Club Friendly
22.07.23	Derby County - Stoke City	3:0
English League Championship
30.12.21	Stoke City - Derby County	1:2
18.09.21	Derby County - Stoke City	2:1

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