Match Info

League One - Round 40

Date: 1 April 2025, Tuesday

Location: Memorial Stadium (Bristol)

Referee: Yates O. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA English 2, TOD
Australia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 4
Canada	DAZN Canada
Croatia	Arena Sport 9, MAXtv To Go
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 3
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay, V Sport+, V Sport Ultra
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 1
Iceland	Viaplay, Vodafone Sport
India	FanCode, FanCode
Ireland	NOW
Japan	DAZN Japan
Malta	TSN Malta 7
Netherlands	Viaplay
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO
Norway	Viaplay, V Sport 1
Poland	Viaplay
Serbia	Arena Sport 4
Slovakia	Voyo
Sweden	Viaplay, V Sport Extra
United-kingdom	NOW TV, Sky Go Extra, Sky Go, Sky Sports Main Event, Sky Ultra


	Bristol Rovers		Birmingham City

	1	X	2
	7	4.5	1.38	Watch
	7.5	4.8	1.38
	8	4.75	1.38	Watch
	7.53	4.7	1.39	Watch
	8	4.6	1.4
	7.8	4.9	1.39	Watch
	8	4.75	1.38
Avarage Now (Initially)	7.69 ↑ (7)	4.71 ↓ (4.9)	1.39 ↑ (1.37)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 5.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bristol Rovers
12.2%

Draw
19.9%

Birmingham City
67.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

13.3%

19%

67.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

12.9%

18.5%

69.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bristol Rovers has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)

The chances for Birmingham City have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bristol Rovers than the current prediction. (+0.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Birmingham City than the current prediction. (+2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
10%	0%	90%

Bristol Rovers - Birmingham City Predictions

Users Predictions: Birmingham City will win (9 of 10 users predict this - 90%).
Confidence interval (95%): 71.41% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Ward J. (G) 4. Moore T. 5. Wilson J. (C) 17. Taylor C. 6. Mola C. 37. Shaw K. 14. Sawyers R. 26. Butcher M. 28. Forde S. 24. O'Donkor G. 10. Sotiriou R.	21. Allsop R. (G) 2. Laird E. 4. Klarer C. (C) 25. Davies B. 20. Cochrane A. 24. Iwata T. 12. Leonard M. 30. Dowell K. 18. Willumsson W. T. 14. Anderson K. 28. Stansfield J.
Substitutes
35. Hall M. (G) 19. Hutchinson I. 2. Senior J. 7. Sinclair S. 25. Swinkels S. 11. Thomas L. 8. Ward G.	31. Hanley G. 26. Harris L. 10. Jutkiewicz L. 9. May A. 13. Paik Seung-Ho 45. Peacock-Farrell B. (G) 23. Sampsted A.
Coaches
Calderon I.	Davies C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
3', 0 - 1, Anderson K. ⚽, Dowell K. (A),
19', 1 - 1, O'Donkor G. ⚽, Taylor C. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
48', Ward J. 🟨,
56', Shaw K. 🟨,
56', Leonard M. ↓, Paik Seung-Ho ↑,
59', Davies B. 🟨,
66', Shaw K. ↓, Ward G. ↑,
74', O'Donkor G. ↓, Sinclair S. ↑,
78', Dowell K. ↓, May A. ↑,
79', Laird E. ↓, Sampsted A. ↑,
84', Sotiriou R. 🟨,
85', 1 - 2, Stansfield J. (Pen),
85', Forde S. ↓, Thomas L. ↑,
85', Moore T. ↓, Senior J. ↑,
86', Butcher M. ↓, Hutchinson I. ↑,
90', Stansfield J. ↓, Hanley G. ↑,
90', Taylor C. 🟨,

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 20 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Championship).

Recent matches Bristol Rovers is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Birmingham is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Birmingham could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Birmingham is the unquestionable favorite.

There will not play in Bristol Rovers: Conteh K. (Knee Injury) Martin C. (Injury) Omochere P. (Injury)

There will not play in Birmingham: Buchanan L. (Knee Injury) Dykes L. (Calf Injury) Wright S. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Birmingham: Gardner-Hickman T. (Knock) Paik Seung-Ho (Injury)

Last 4 head-to-head matches Bristol Rovers won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 2:9 (average 0.5:2.3).

Including matches at home between the teams Bristol Rovers won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 2:4 (average 1:2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Bristol Rovers
English League One
29.03.25	Bristol Rovers - Mansfield Town	1:2 ✺
22.03.25	Crawley Town - Bristol Rovers	1:0 ✺
15.03.25	Lincoln City - Bristol Rovers	5:0 ✺
11.03.25	Bristol Rovers - Bolton Wanderers	3:2 ✺
08.03.25	Bristol Rovers - Huddersfield Town	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.6 LLLWW
- Birmingham City
English League One
29.03.25	Birmingham City - Shrewsbury Town	4:1 ✺
15.03.25	Northampton Town - Birmingham City	1:1 ✺
11.03.25	Birmingham City - Stevenage Borough	2:1 ✺
08.03.25	Birmingham City - Lincoln City	1:0 ✺
04.03.25	Bolton Wanderers - Birmingham City	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.2 WTWWL

Latest Head to Head

English League One
14.12.24	Birmingham City - Bristol Rovers	2:0
Club Friendly
20.07.19	Bristol Rovers - Birmingham City	1:2
English League Cup
11.08.15	Bristol Rovers - Birmingham City	1:2
English FA Cup
14.01.14	Birmingham City - Bristol Rovers	3:0

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