Match Info

K League 1 - Round 30

Date: 19 September 2026, Saturday

Location: Bucheon Stadium (Bucheon)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	Stan Sport
Austria	Laola1
Finland	Veikkaus TV
Germany	Laola1
South-korea	Coupang Play, IB Sports
Switzerland	LAOLA1
World	K League TV


	Bucheon		Gimcheon Sangmu

	1	X	2
	2.88	3.25	2.3	Watch
	2.90	3.40	2.30
	2.8	3.2	2.32
	3.02	3.4	2.48
	2.97	3.37	2.32	Watch
	2.95	3.35	2.4
	2.98	3.37	2.38	Watch
	2.85	3.3	2.37
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.92 ↓ (2.95)	3.33 ↑ (3.1)	2.36 ↑ (2.16)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bucheon
32.1%

Draw
28.1%

Gimcheon Sangmu
39.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

30.1%

28.7%

41.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.3%

28.5%

40.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bucheon has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2%)

Gimcheon Sangmu has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bucheon than the current prediction. (-1.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Gimcheon Sangmu than the current prediction. (+1.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
40%	20%	40%

Bucheon - Gimcheon Sangmu Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Bucheon will win (votes: 2 - 40%). Gimcheon Sangmu will win (votes: 2 - 40%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 20%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Kim H. (G) 6. Jeong Ho-Jin 3. Patrick William 20. Hong Sung-Wook 7. Thiaguinho Santos 8. Yoon Bit-Garam 16. Kim Sang-Jun 26. An Tae-Hyun 10. Rodrigo Bassani (C) 11. Galego 71. Kim Seung-Bin	41. Park M. (G) 11. Kim Tae-Hwan 4. Kim Hyun-Woo 26. Lee Jung-Taek (C) 3. Park Cheol-Woo 7. Go Jae-Hyeon 55. Park T. 6. Lee Soo-Bin 48. Hong Yun-Sang 47. Lee Sang-Heon 57. Jung Jae-Min
Substitutes
29. Baek Dong-Gyu 99. Gustavo Nescau 83. Jo Seong-Jun 2. Kim Jong-Min 14. Kim Jong-Woo 13. Kim Min-Jun 18. Lee Eui-Hyeong 31. Lee Sang-hyeon (G) 4. Ye-Geon S.	51. Ahn Jun-Su (G) 42. Hong Si-Hoo 5. Kim Min-Kyu 8. Kim Yi-Seok 9. Lee G. 56. Lee K. 44. Park Min-Seo 14. Park Se-Jin 54. Yoon Jae-Seok
Coaches
Lee Young-Min	Joo S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 2)
62', Jung Jae-Min ↓, Lee G. ↑,
62', Lee Soo-Bin ↓, Lee K. ↑,
62', Lee Sang-Heon ↓, Park Se-Jin ↑,
70', Kim Seung-Bin ↓, Gustavo Nescau ↑,
77', 0 - 1, Go Jae-Hyeon ⚽, Lee K. (A),
80', Kim Sang-Jun ↓, Kim Jong-Woo ↑,
80', Rodrigo Bassani ↓, Kim Min-Jun ↑,
80', Lee G. 🟨,
80', Park T. ↓, Kim Yi-Seok ↑,
86', 0 - 2, Park Se-Jin ⚽,
87', Kim Hyun-Woo ↓, Kim Min-Kyu ↑,
90', An Tae-Hyun ↓, Kim Jong-Min ↑,
90', Yoon Bit-Garam ↓, Ye-Geon S. ↑,

Preview

A high-tension relegation six-pointer between two sides desperate to escape the danger zone (ranked 10th in the K League 1 (Relegation Group: ) and 11th in the K League 1 (Relegation Group: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Bucheon won 1.

Bucheon is going through a lean spell lately (last 5 matches: 0 wins).

Performances by Gimcheon Sangmu have been somewhat unpredictable lately (last 5 matches: 0 wins).

A closely fought contest is anticipated, with Gimcheon Sangmu holding a narrow advantage.

In the last 15 head-to-head meetings, Bucheon has recorded 3 wins, 2 draws, and 10 losses, with a goal aggregate of 12:25 (averaging 0.8:1.7 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Bucheon against this opponent, the record stands at 3 wins, 1 draw, and 4 losses, with 8:11 goals (averaging 1:1.4 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
10	Gimcheon Sangmu ✔	31	5	18	8	30:37	-7	33
11	Bucheon FC 1995 ✔	31	7	11	13	31:42	-11	32

Last Results with these Odds

Bucheon - the odds 2.95 are the expected chance of winning is 30.14%, but this team recently wins 17% of matches with these odds.

Gimcheon Sangmu - the odds 2.16 are the expected chance of winning is 41.17%, but this team recently wins 0% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Bucheon FC 1995
South Korean K-League 1
12.09.26	Bucheon - Jeju	2:2 ✺
08.09.26	Incheon United - Bucheon	2:1 ✺
05.09.26	Bucheon - Daejeon Citizen	0:5 ✺
29.08.26	Bucheon - Anyang	1:1 ✺
25.08.26	FC Seoul - Bucheon	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.9 TLLTL
- Gimcheon Sangmu FC
South Korean K-League 1
13.09.26	Gimcheon Sangmu - Gangwon	2:2 ✺
09.09.26	Pohang Steelers - Gimcheon Sangmu	0:0 ✺
06.09.26	Gimcheon Sangmu - Gwangju	2:2 ✺
29.08.26	Ulsan HD - Gimcheon Sangmu	3:1 ✺
25.08.26	Gimcheon Sangmu - Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 TTTLT

Latest Head to Head

South Korean K-League 1
11.07.26	Gimcheon Sangmu - Bucheon	1:1
25.04.26	Bucheon - Gimcheon Sangmu	0:2
South Korean Cup
14.05.25	Bucheon - Gimcheon Sangmu	3:1 ET
South Korean K-League 2
07.10.23	Gimcheon Sangmu - Bucheon	3:1
01.07.23	Bucheon - Gimcheon Sangmu	0:3
15.04.23	Gimcheon Sangmu - Bucheon	4:1
17.10.21	Bucheon - Gimcheon Sangmu	0:1

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