Match Info

K League 1 - Round 28

Date: 8 September 2026, Tuesday

Location: Sungui Arena Park (Incheon)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	Stan Sport
South-korea	Coupang Play
Usa	SportsEngine Play
World	K League TV


	Incheon United		Bucheon

	1	X	2
	1.95	3.2	3.7	Watch
	1.93	3.25	4.00
	2	3.1	3.65
	2.09	3.35	4.05
	1.99	3.21	3.99	Watch
	2.06	3.2	3.95
	1.98	3.33	4.05	Watch
	2.02	3.2	3.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	2 ↑ (1.7)	3.23 ↓ (3.25)	3.89 ↓ (4.4)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Incheon United
46.8%

Draw
29%

Bucheon
24.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

52.4%

27.4%

20.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55.7%

29.1%

19%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Incheon United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Incheon United's form might have worsened.

Bucheon has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Incheon United than the current prediction. (+8.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Incheon United, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bucheon than the current prediction. (-5.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Bucheon, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
27.3%	63.6%	9.1%

Incheon United - Bucheon Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Incheon will win (votes: 3 - 27.3%). Bucheon will win (votes: 1 - 9.1%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 63.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 35.2% – 92%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.75 - Bucheon (1.75) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Bucheon (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Tie (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Kim Dong-Heon (G) 39. Kim Myung-soon 28. Kim Yeon-Soo 2. Ibiza 32. Lee Ju-Yong 10. Lee Dong-Ryul 15. Seo Jae-Min 5. Lee Myoung-Joo (C) 70. Leandro Ribeiro 9. Mugosa S. 99. Ferrier M.	1. Kim H. (G) 6. Jeong Ho-Jin 3. Patrick William 20. Hong Sung-Wook 71. Kim Seung-Bin 23. Takahashi K. 4. Ye-Geon S. 26. An Tae-Hyun 10. Rodrigo Bassani (C) 99. Gustavo Nescau 11. Galego
Substitutes
13. Choi Seung-gu 11. Gerso 17. Kim Seong-Min 30. Kim Young-whan 72. Lee Chung-Yong 26. Lee Min-Hyuk 3. Lee Sang-Gi 21. Lee Tae-Hui (G) 6. Mun Ji-Hwan	29. Baek Dong-Gyu 83. Jo Seong-Jun 24. Kim Dong-Hyun 13. Kim Min-Jun 16. Kim Sang-Jun 18. Lee Eui-Hyeong 31. Lee Sang-hyeon (G) 25. Yeo Bong-Hun 8. Yoon Bit-Garam
Coaches
Yoon Jong-Hwan	Lee Young-Min

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
33', 0 - 1, Galego ⚽,
43', 1 - 1, Mugosa S. ⚽, Leandro Ribeiro (A),
45+1', Gustavo Nescau 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
56', Leandro Ribeiro ↓, Gerso ↑,
67', Hong Sung-Wook 🟨,
69', Lee Dong-Ryul ↓, Lee Chung-Yong ↑,
69', Seo Jae-Min ↓, Lee Min-Hyuk ↑,
69', Gustavo Nescau ↓, Lee Eui-Hyeong ↑,
70', 2 - 1, Ibiza ⚽, Lee Myoung-Joo (A),
74', Takahashi K. ↓, Yoon Bit-Garam ↑,
86', An Tae-Hyun ↓, Jo Seong-Jun ↑,
86', Rodrigo Bassani ↓, Kim Min-Jun ↑,
86', Ye-Geon S. ↓, Kim Sang-Jun ↑,
88', Kim Myung-soon ↓, Choi Seung-gu ↑,
88', Ferrier M. ↓, Kim Seong-Min ↑,

Preview

A great opportunity to watch a clash of neighbouring teams in the table (ranked 9 in the zone K League 1 (Relegation Group: ) and 10 in the zone K League 1 (Relegation Group: ))

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Incheon won 2.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

In this match, Incheon is the team to beat.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Incheon won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 9:5. (average 1.5:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Incheon won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:1. (average 1.3:0.3).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	Incheon	31	11	9	11	39:33	6	42
11	Bucheon FC 1995 ✔	31	7	11	13	31:42	-11	32

Last Results with these Odds

Incheon United - the odds 1.7 are the expected chance of winning is 52.37%, but this team recently wins 71% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Incheon United
South Korean K-League 1
05.09.26	FC Seoul - Incheon United	1:0 ✺
30.08.26	Incheon United - Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors	1:1 ✺
26.08.26	Anyang - Incheon United	2:1 ✺
23.08.26	Gwangju - Incheon United	0:1 ✺
16.08.26	Incheon United - Gimcheon Sangmu	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 LTLWT
- Bucheon FC 1995
South Korean K-League 1
05.09.26	Bucheon - Daejeon Citizen	0:5 ✺
29.08.26	Bucheon - Anyang	1:1 ✺
25.08.26	FC Seoul - Bucheon	1:0 ✺
22.08.26	Bucheon - Pohang Steelers	3:0 ✺
South Korean Cup
19.08.26	Busan I Park - Bucheon	0:1 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.8 LTLWW

Latest Head to Head

South Korean K-League 1
26.07.26	Incheon United - Bucheon	1:1
18.04.26	Bucheon - Incheon United	2:2
South Korean K-League 2
07.09.25	Bucheon - Incheon United	1:0
08.06.25	Incheon United - Bucheon	1:0
26.04.25	Bucheon - Incheon United	1:3
South Korean Cup
29.04.15	Incheon United - Bucheon	2:0

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