Match Info

SPAIN: LALIGA2 - ROUND 32

Date: 18 March 2023, Saturday

Location: Estadio El Toralín (Ponferrada)

Referee: Sanchez Lopez R. (Esp)


	Ponferradina		Deportivo Alavés

	1	X	2
	4.2	3.1	2	Watch
	3.9	3	1.98
	4.7	2.95	1.96
	3.95	2.95	2
	4.28	3.12	2.08
	4.4	3.08	1.98	Watch
	4	3.15	2.04
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.2 ↑ (3.29)	3.05 ↑ (3)	2.01 ↓ (2.22)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ponferradina
22.3%

Draw
30.8%

Deportivo Alavés
46.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

27.9%

30.6%

41.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

26.3%

28.9%

43.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ponferradina has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Ponferradina's form might have worsened.

Deportivo Alavés has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Deportivo Alavés's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ponferradina than the current prediction. (+4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Deportivo Alavés than the current prediction. (-2.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
11.5%	11.5%	76.9%

Ponferradina - Deportivo Alavés Predictions

Users Predictions: 26 users predict this event. Ponferradina will win (votes: 3 - 11.5%). Alavés will win (votes: 20 - 76.9%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 11.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Alavés: 60.7% – 93.1%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Preview

This match will be held between outsider and one of leaders (ranked 19 in the zone Relegation and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ LaLiga2 (Promotion ~ Play Offs)).

Ponferradina has the most likely position - 19 (30.71%), project points - 43, currently - 30, a good chance of relegated (71%), a very small chance of prom. playoffs (<1%), a very small chance of promoted (<1%), a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Alavés has the most likely position - 5 (20.46%), project points - 70, currently - 54, a very small chance of relegated (<1%), a good chance of prom. playoffs (70%), a chance of promoted (40%), a small chance of win league (8%).

This event has quality 31, importance 56, match rating 44. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Ponferradina won 1.

Ponferradina is in poor shape (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recent matches Alavés is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

In this match Alavés is a favorite.

Last 7 head-to-head matches Ponferradina won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 8-12.

Including matches at home between the teams Ponferradina won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 4-3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SD Ponferradina
Spanish LaLiga2
12.03.23	Granada - Ponferradina	2:2 ✺
05.03.23	Ponferradina - Cartagena	0:3 ✺
26.02.23	Las Palmas - Ponferradina	2:0 ✺
18.02.23	Ponferradina - Levante	0:0 ✺
12.02.23	Ibiza - Ponferradina	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11 TLLTT
- Deportivo Alavés
Spanish LaLiga2
11.03.23	Deportivo Alavés - Lugo	0:0 ✺
06.03.23	Villarreal B - Deportivo Alavés	1:0 ✺
25.02.23	Deportivo Alavés - Cartagena	0:0 ✺
19.02.23	Deportivo Alavés - Ibiza	4:2 ✺
11.02.23	Zaragoza - Deportivo Alavés	1:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.7 TLTWW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish LaLiga2
02.10.22	Deportivo Alavés - Ponferradina	3:1
22.05.16	Deportivo Alavés - Ponferradina	2:0
19.12.15	Ponferradina - Deportivo Alavés	0:1
10.05.15	Deportivo Alavés - Ponferradina	2:1
06.12.14	Ponferradina - Deportivo Alavés	2:1
03.05.14	Ponferradina - Deportivo Alavés	2:1
01.12.13	Deportivo Alavés - Ponferradina	2:2

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