Match Info

Club Friendly

Date: 1 August 2026, Saturday

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Burton Albion		Derby County

	1	X	2
	3.75	3.40	1.78
	3.55	3.35	1.86
	3.71	3.65	1.90
	1.19	4.93	27.72	Watch
	3.25	3.60	1.83
	3.98	3.70	1.83	Watch
	3.85	3.35	1.78
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.33 ↓ (4.44)	3.71 ↓ (3.8)	5.53 ↑ (1.66)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Burton Albion
40%

Draw
35.9%

Derby County
24.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

20.6%

24.1%

55.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Burton Albion has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+19.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Burton Albion's performance.

Derby County has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-31.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Derby County might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

Burton Albion - Derby County Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
34. Addai C. (G) 3. Armer J. 4. Chauke K. 26. Delap F. 19. Dennis M. 12. Evans G. (C) 27. Kalinauskas T. 41. Krubally S. 15. Lofthouse K. 10. Shade T. 6. Sibbick T.	1. Widell Zetterstrom J. (G) 7. Bilbija F. 8. Clark B. 5. Clarke M. 3. Forsyth C. 29. Fraulo O. 22. Johnston M. 9. Morris C. 28. Sanderson D. 27. Travis L. (C) 23. Ward J.
Substitutes
. Joubert L. (G) 20. Matthews Lewis M. 56. Scutt Z. 40. Trialist A 14. Trialist B. . Trialist C	16. Hodges D. 50. Kane S. (G) . Myers K. 12. O'Donnell R. (G) 4. Osayande A. 19. Szmodics S. 14. Wren K.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
11', 1 - 0, Shade T. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
59', 🟨,
59', 🟨,
59', 🟨,
62', 🟨,
81', 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Burton won 1.

Derby may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Derby is considered a favorite.

In the last 14 head-to-head matches, Burton won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 20:30. (average 1.4:2.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Burton won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 18:25. (average 1.8:2.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Burton Albion
Club Friendly
28.07.26	Solihull Moors - Burton Albion	1:1 ✺
22.07.26	Burton Albion - Birmingham City	0:1 ✺
18.07.26	Burton Albion - Leicester City	0:3 ✺
11.07.26	Alfreton Town - Burton Albion	0:0 ✺
English League One
02.05.26	Leyton Orient - Burton Albion	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 TLLTT
- Derby County
Club Friendly
31.07.26	Mansfield Town - Derby County	1:3 ✺
24.07.26	Freiburg - Derby County	3:1 ✺
17.07.26	Alfreton Town - Derby County	0:2 ✺
English League Championship
02.05.26	Derby County - Sheffield United	1:2 ✺
25.04.26	Queens Park Rangers - Derby County	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.2 WLWLW

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
26.07.25	Burton Albion - Derby County	2:1
English League One
15.01.24	Derby County - Burton Albion	3:2
12.08.23	Burton Albion - Derby County	0:3
22.04.23	Derby County - Burton Albion	1:0
10.12.22	Burton Albion - Derby County	1:1
Club Friendly
20.07.19	Burton Albion - Derby County	2:5
English League Championship
14.04.18	Burton Albion - Derby County	3:1

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