Match Info

Date: 1 October 2022, Saturday

Location: Pirelli Stadium (Burton upon Trent)

Referee: Gill S. (Eng)


	Burton Albion		Forest Green Rovers

	1	X	2
	1.72	3.75	4.75
	1.75	3.7	4.33
	1.78	3.75	4.55
	1.75	3.7	4.2
	1.8	3.83	4.53
	1.75	3.7	4.4
	1.78	3.92	4.6	Watch
	1.74	3.65	4.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.76 ↓ (2.42)	3.75 ↑ (3.2)	4.47 ↑ (2.95)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Burton Albion
53.7%

Draw
25.2%

Forest Green Rovers
21.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.8%

29.3%

31.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.9%

29.2%

31.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Burton Albion has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+14.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Burton Albion's performance.

Forest Green Rovers has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Forest Green Rovers might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Burton Albion than the current prediction. (-14.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Burton Albion that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Forest Green Rovers than the current prediction. (+10.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Forest Green Rovers could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
56.7%	13.3%	30%

Burton Albion - Forest Green Rovers Predictions

Users Predictions: 30 users predict this event. Burton will win (votes: 17 - 56.7%). Forest Green will win (votes: 9 - 30%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 13.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Burton: 39% – 74.4%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Preview

We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 24 in the zone Relegation ~ League Two and 22 in the zone Relegation ~ League Two).

Burton has the most likely position - 24 (22.76%), has project points - 40, has currently - 4, has a good chance of relegated (63%), has a very small chance of prom. playoffs (<1%), has a very small chance of promoted (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Forest Green has the most likely position - 24 (20.48%), has project points - 40, has currently - 8, has a good chance of relegated (63%), has a very small chance of prom. playoffs (<1%), has a very small chance of promoted (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

This event has small quality 12, importance 42, small match rating 27. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

One and the other team get a very uncertain game.

Recently Burton have a series of guest games.

In this match Burton is a favorite.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Burton Albion
English League One
24.09.22	Shrewsbury Town - Burton Albion	2:1 ✺
English EFL Trophy
20.09.22	Sheffield Wednesday - Burton Albion	2:3 ✺
English League One
17.09.22	Exeter City - Burton Albion	0:2 ✺
13.09.22	Burton Albion - Portsmouth	0:2 ✺
03.09.22	Oxford United - Burton Albion	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19.9 LWWLL
- Forest Green Rovers
English League One
24.09.22	Forest Green Rovers - Exeter City	0:4 ✺
English EFL Trophy
20.09.22	Newport County - Forest Green Rovers	1:2 ✺
English League One
17.09.22	Forest Green Rovers - Morecambe	1:2 ✺
13.09.22	Charlton Athletic - Forest Green Rovers	1:1 ✺
06.09.22	Forest Green Rovers - Accrington Stanley	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.3 LWLTW

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