Match Info

K League 2 - Round 24

Date: 9 August 2025, Saturday

Location: Busan Gudeok Stadium (Busan)

Where to Watch on TV:


China	K-Ball
South-korea	Coupang Play
World	K League TV


	Busan I Park		Incheon United

	1	X	2
	3.2	3.1	2.25	Watch
	3.2	3.1	2.05
	3.25	3.15	2.12
	3.4	3.1	2.34
	7.03	4.20	1.45	Watch
	3.3	3	2.15
	3.29	3.13	2.18	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.81 ↓ (3.87)	3.25 ↓ (3.37)	2.08 ↑ (1.93)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Busan I Park
25%

Draw
29.2%

Incheon United
45.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

24.1%

27.7%

48.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

23.7%

27.2%

49%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Busan I Park has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.9%)

Incheon United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Busan I Park than the current prediction. (-1.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Incheon United than the current prediction. (+3.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
10%	30%	60%

Busan I Park - Incheon United Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Busan I Park will win (votes: 1 - 10%). Incheon will win (votes: 6 - 60%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 30%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Incheon: 29.6% – 90.4%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Incheon (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Koo Sang-Min (G) 77. Jang Ho-Ik (C) 20. Cho Wi-Je 24. Hong Uk-Hyeon 88. Kim Se-Hoon 6. Lee Dong-Su 7. Xavier 17. Jeon Seung-Jin 10. Fessin 45. Baek Ga-On 11. Villero P.	97. Kim Dong-Heon (G) 17. Kim Seong-Min 4. Kim Gun-Hee 20. Delbridge H. 32. Lee Ju-Yong 11. Gerso 5. Lee Myoung-Joo (C) 13. Choi Seung-gu 14. Barrow M. 99. Park Ho-Min 77. Park Seung-Ho
Substitutes
29. Choi Gi-Yun 9. Gonzalo Fornari 19. Jo Min-Ho 66. Lee S. 3. Oh Ban-Suk 23. Park Chang-Woo 21. Park Dae-Han (G)	27. Kim Bo-Sub 28. Kim Geon-Ung 19. Kim Min-Seog 3. Lee Sang-Gi 1. Min Seong-Jun (G) 9. Mugosa S. 8. Shin Jin-Ho
Coaches
Cho S.	Yoon Jong-Hwan

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
9', 0 - 1, Park Seung-Ho ⚽, Gerso (A),
15', Hong Uk-Hyeon 🟨,
38', Barrow M. ↓, Kim Bo-Sub ↑,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Park Ho-Min ↓, Mugosa S. ↑,
52', Villero P. 🟨,
63', Hong Uk-Hyeon ↓, Gonzalo Fornari ↑,
68', Lee Myoung-Joo ↓, Kim Geon-Ung ↑,
68', Park Seung-Ho ↓, Shin Jin-Ho ↑,
69', 0 - 2, Shin Jin-Ho ⚽, Kim Bo-Sub (A),
77', Gerso ↓, Kim Min-Seog ↑,
85', Xavier ↓, Lee S. ↑,
85', Baek Ga-On ↓, Choi Gi-Yun ↑,
85', Kim Se-Hoon ↓, Park Chang-Woo ↑,
90', Lee Dong-Su ↓, Jo Min-Ho ↑,
90+6', Gonzalo Fornari 🟨,

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 6 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ K League 1).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Busan I Park won 1.

Busan I Park is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Incheon is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Incheon might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 19 head-to-head matches, Busan I Park won 6 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 12:19. (average 0.6:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Busan I Park won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 4:7. (average 0.5:0.9).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Busan I Park
South Korean K-League 2
02.08.25	Gyeongnam - Busan I Park	1:0 ✺
26.07.25	Busan I Park - Bucheon	4:2 ✺
19.07.25	Hwaseong - Busan I Park	1:0 ✺
12.07.25	Busan I Park - Seongnam Ilhwa Chunma	0:0 ✺
06.07.25	Gimpo - Busan I Park	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 LWLTL
- Incheon United
South Korean K-League 2
02.08.25	Seoul E-Land - Incheon United	0:0 ✺
27.07.25	Incheon United - Ansan Greeners	4:2 ✺
20.07.25	Gyeongnam - Incheon United	0:2 ✺
13.07.25	Incheon United - Chungnam Asan	2:1 ✺
05.07.25	Jeonnam Dragons - Incheon United	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.5 TWWWL

Latest Head to Head

South Korean K-League 2
29.03.25	Incheon United - Busan I Park	1:1
South Korean K-League 1
24.10.20	Incheon United - Busan I Park	2:1
13.09.20	Busan I Park - Incheon United	0:0
21.06.20	Incheon United - Busan I Park	0:1
08.11.15	Incheon United - Busan I Park	0:0
19.09.15	Incheon United - Busan I Park	2:1
08.07.15	Incheon United - Busan I Park	3:1

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