Match Info

EUROPE: Conference League - Qualification - Semi-finals

Date: 8 August 2024, Thursday

Location: National Stadium Vasil Levski (Sofia)

Referee: Shurman D. (Ukr)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bulgaria	Diema Sport, Play Diema Xtra
Cyprus	Cablenet Sports 1, Cablenet Sports 1


	CSKA 1948 Sofia		Paphos

	1	X	2
	3.5	3.6	1.9	Watch
	3.5	3.25	1.98
	4	3.5	1.9	Watch
	3.88	3.47	1.94
	3.78	3.52	1.94	Watch
	3.78	3.5	1.99
	4	3.5	1.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.78 ↑ (2.35)	3.48 ↓ (3.5)	1.94 ↓ (2.63)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

CSKA 1948 Sofia
24.8%

Draw
26.9%

Paphos
48.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39%

26.2%

34.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40%

25.5%

33.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

CSKA 1948 Sofia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-14.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that CSKA 1948 Sofia's form might have worsened.

Paphos has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+13.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Paphos's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for CSKA 1948 Sofia than the current prediction. (+15.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for CSKA 1948 Sofia, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Paphos than the current prediction. (-14.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Paphos, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
37.5%	37.5%	25%

CSKA 1948 Sofia - Paphos Predictions

Users Predictions: 23 users predict this event. CSKA 1948 will win (votes: 9 - 39.1%). Paphos will win (votes: 6 - 26.1%). It will Tie (votes: 8 - 34.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for CSKA 1948: 19.2% – 59%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Marinov P. (G) 19. Furtado S. 14. Ivanov T. 21. Tsenov E. 31. Rapnouil T. 28. Piscevic N. 22. Daskalov R. 9. Karagaren B. 7. Thalis 10. Kirilov R. (C) 40. Ilievski M.	1. Ivusic I. (G) 23. Luckassen D. 25. Name M. 5. Goldar D. 3. Melluso M. 30. Dragomir V. 6. Pelagio P. 7. Bruno 11. Jaja 22. Tankovic M. 10. Jairo (C)
Substitutes
16. Atanasov M. 91. Bidounga R. 11. Bouzon C. 58. Boychev M. 6. Iliev R. 26. Markov I. 12. Ntumba L. (G) 61. Octavio 25. Serdyuk Y. 39. Umarbaev P.	33. Anderson Silva 77. Correia J. 70. Ilia M. 93. Michail N. (G) 88. Pepe 2. Pileas K. 45. Rafael Pontelo 34. Sunjic I. 83. Theodoulou P. (G) 24. Valakari O.
Coaches
Iliev V.	Carcedo J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
10', 0 - 1, Tankovic M. ⚽, Jaja (A),
29', 1 - 1, Ilievski M. ⚽, Thalis (A),
38', Melluso M. ↓, Pileas K. ↑,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
51', 2 - 1, Thalis (Pen),
59', Thalis 🟨,
59', Jaja ↓, Correia J. ↑,
59', Pelagio P. ↓, Valakari O. ↑,
77', Karagaren B. ↓, Bouzon C. ↑,
77', Thalis ↓, Umarbaev P. ↑,
80', Jairo ↓, Anderson Silva ↑,
80', Bruno ↓, Sunjic I. ↑,
83', Ilievski M. ↓, Serdyuk Y. ↑,
90+6', Kirilov R. ↓, Octavio ↑,

Preview

1st leg. Playing home matches at a different stadium - National Stadium Vasil Levski.

Recent matches CSKA 1948 is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Paphos is in unsatisfactory shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

CSKA 1948 could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Paphos will have a small advantage in this match.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Last Results with these Odds

Paphos - the odds 2.63 are the expected chance of winning is 34.84%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CSKA 1948 Sofia
UEFA Europa Conference League
01.08.24	Budućnost Podgorica - CSKA 1948 Sofia	1:1 ET ✺
Bulgarian Parva Liga
28.07.24	CSKA 1948 Sofia - Spartak Varna	2:2 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
25.07.24	CSKA 1948 Sofia - Budućnost Podgorica	1:0 ✺
Bulgarian Parva Liga
19.07.24	Cherno More Varna - CSKA 1948 Sofia	0:0 ✺
Club Friendly
13.07.24	Olimpija Ljubljana - CSKA 1948 Sofia	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.8 WTWTL
- Paphos FC
UEFA Europa Conference League
01.08.24	Paphos - Žalgiris	3:0 ET ✺
25.07.24	Žalgiris - Paphos	2:1 ✺
UEFA Europa League
18.07.24	Paphos - Elfsborg	2:5 ✺
11.07.24	Elfsborg - Paphos	3:0 ✺
Club Friendly
03.07.24	Paphos - Panathinaikos	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 WLLLT

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