Match Info

Premier League - Round 4

Date: 15 August 2026, Saturday

Location: VEB Arena (Moscow)

Referee: Tanashev I. (Rus)

Where to Watch on TV:


Asia	Q Sport Asia
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 4P
Russia	Match TV
Serbia	Arena Premium 2
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	CSKA Moscow		Fakel

	1	X	2
	1.66	3.96	5.66
	1.62	3.9	5.6
	1.62	3.95	6.23	Watch
	1.65	3.75	4.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.64 ↑ (1.37)	3.89 ↓ (4.4)	5.6 ↓ (7)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

CSKA Moscow
58.4%

Draw
24.6%

Fakel
17.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

66.4%

20.7%

13%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46.9%

14.6%

18.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

CSKA Moscow has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that CSKA Moscow's form might have worsened.

Fakel has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for CSKA Moscow than the current prediction. (-11.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with CSKA Moscow that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fakel than the current prediction. (+1.3%)

CSKA Moscow - Fakel Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
49. Torop V. (G) 22. Gajic M. 4. Joao Victor 79. Danilov K. 27. Moises 31. Kislyak M. 3. Krugovoy D. 10. Oblyakov I. (C) 7. Matheus Alves 20. Popovic M. 11. Musaev T.	1. Frolkin D. (G) 5. Gabaraev A. 20. Yurganov I. 53. Bardachev M. 55. Todorovic D. 23. Yakimov V. 52. Netfullin R. 10. Alshin I. (C) 99. Giorgobiani N. 9. Gnapi Dable A. 11. Sutormin A.
Substitutes
23. Abdulkadyrov D. 52. Bandikyan A. 6. Barinov D. 99. Barovskiy N. (G) 39. Borisko M. (G) 62. Firov I. 17. Glebov K. 32. Gondou L. 37. Henrique Carmo 18. Kozlov D. 90. Lukin M. 2. Matheus Reis	8. Bagamaev A. 25. Belyaev A. 35. Dorovskikh V. (G) 22. El Mhassani H. 17. Kovalev A. 97. Magomedov B. 96. Obukhov I. (G) 19. Pusi B. 18. Simonov K. 93. Uridia M. 44. Zhuravlev Y.
Coaches
Igdisamov D.	Vasilenko O.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Musaev T. ↓, Gondou L. ↑,
46', Matheus Alves 🟨,
52', Yakimov V. 🟨,
54', Torop V. 🟨,
54', Gnapi Dable A. 🟨,
64', Sutormin A. ↓, Bagamaev A. ↑,
64', Giorgobiani N. ↓, Magomedov B. ↑,
65', Popovic M. ↓, Firov I. ↑,
66', Matheus Alves ↓, Kozlov D. ↑,
71', 1 - 0, Oblyakov I. (Penalty Awarded),
73', Alshin I. ↓, Kovalev A. ↑,
73', Gnapi Dable A. ↓, Pusi B. ↑,
76', Firov I. 🟨,
84', Yurganov I. ↓, Uridia M. ↑,
90', Krugovoy D. ↓, Glebov K. ↑,
90+4', Gabaraev A. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, CSKA won 3.

Recent performances by CSKA have been up and down (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Fakel has been on a rough run of results (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

In this match, CSKA is the clear favorite.

There will not play in CSKA: Akinfeev I. (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in Fakel: Magkeev S. (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Fakel: Turishchev M. (Injury)

In the last 10 head-to-head matches, CSKA won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 14:8. (average 1.4:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, CSKA won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 9:5. (average 1.5:0.8).

Outrights of Russian Premier League for now

CSKA Moscow: 6.69% Fakel Voronezh: 0.84%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	CSKA Moscow	9	5	4	0	15:9	6	19
16	Fakel Voronezh	10	0	3	7	6:18	-12	3

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CSKA Moscow
Russian Premier League
08.08.26	CSKA Moscow - Rostov	0:0 ✺
Russian Cup
04.08.26	Lokomotiv Moscow - CSKA Moscow	1:1 ✺
Russian Premier League
01.08.26	CSKA Moscow - Krylya Sovetov	1:1 ✺
24.07.26	CSKA Moscow - Baltika Kaliningrad	2:1 ✺
Club Friendly
18.07.26	Dynamo Moscow - CSKA Moscow	5:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 TTTWL
- Fakel Voronezh
Russian Premier League
10.08.26	Fakel - Akhmat Grozny	0:0 ✺
Russian Cup
05.08.26	Fakel - Dynamo Moscow	0:1 ✺
Russian Premier League
02.08.26	Krasnodar - Fakel	3:2 ✺
25.07.26	Fakel - Dynamo Makhachkala	1:2 ✺
Club Friendly
15.07.26	Rostov - Fakel	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.5 TLLLL

Latest Head to Head

Russian Premier League
08.12.24	Fakel - CSKA Moscow	0:1
26.10.24	CSKA Moscow - Fakel	0:0
07.04.24	CSKA Moscow - Fakel	4:1
Club Friendly
05.02.24	CSKA Moscow - Fakel	1:0
Russian Premier League
11.11.23	Fakel - CSKA Moscow	1:1
Russian Cup
04.10.23	Fakel - CSKA Moscow	2:1 penalties
09.08.23	CSKA Moscow - Fakel	0:2

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