Match Info

Premier League - Round 17

Date: 29 November 2025, Saturday

Location: VEB Arena (Moscow)

Referee: Abrosimov I. (Rus)

Where to Watch on TV:


Asia	Q Sport Asia
Croatia	Arena Sport 7, MAXtv To Go
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO
Russia	Match! Premier, Match TV, Sportbox.ru
Serbia	Arena Sport 1


	CSKA Moscow		Orenburg

	1	X	2
	1.42	5.01	7.4
	1.45	5.14	7.7
	1.37	4.5	6.66
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.41 ↑ (1.4)	4.88 ↑ (4.5)	7.25 ↓ (8.2)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 1.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

CSKA Moscow
67.4%

Draw
19.5%

Orenburg
13.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

67.5%

21%

11.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

70.9%

20%

10.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

CSKA Moscow has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)

Orenburg has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for CSKA Moscow than the current prediction. (+3.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Orenburg than the current prediction. (-2.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

CSKA Moscow - Orenburg Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. CSKA (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DNB - CSKA (1.13) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -2 - CSKA (3.05) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: CSKA Moscow will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. CSKA (votes: 3 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
35. Akinfeev I. (C) 22. Gajic M. 78. Diveev I. 90. Lukin M. 27. Moises 10. Oblyakov I. 31. Kislyak M. 3. Krugovoy D. 7. Matheus Alves 17. Glebov K. 20. Popovic M.	1. Ovsyannikov B. (G) 18. Moufi F. 38. Kasimov A. 4. Khotulev D. 3. Vedernikov D. 37. Du Queiroz 33. Kvekveskiri I. (C) 16. Thompson J. 20. Rybchinskiy D. 7. Gurluk E. 30. Guzina G.
Substitutes
23. Abdulkadyrov D. 9. Alerrandro 52. Bandikyan A. 37. Henrique Carmo 4. Joao Victor 11. Musaev T. 30. Popolitov G. 19. Ruiz D. 8. Shumansky A. 49. Torop V. (G) 18. Verde L. 5. Villagra R.	19. Alexandre Jesus 57. Bolotov E. 44. Chichinadze A. 22. Gorelov P. 85. Ignatjev I. 8. Kamilov V. 95. Khodanovich A. (G) 11. Oganesyan S. 2. Poroykov S. 9. Savelyev M. 26. Tsenov E. 31. Zotov G.
Coaches
Celestini F.	Akhmetzyanov I.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
19', Matheus Alves 🟨,
41', Thompson J. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Guzina G. ↓, Alexandre Jesus ↑,
55', 1 - 0, Khotulev D. (Own goal),
60', Lukin M. 🟨,
64', Kvekveskiri I. 🟨,
65', Matheus Alves ↓, Villagra R. ↑,
71', Popovic M. ↓, Musaev T. ↑,
83', Du Queiroz ↓, Kamilov V. ↑,
83', Rybchinskiy D. ↓, Ignatjev I. ↑,
83', Kvekveskiri I. ↓, Bolotov E. ↑,
83', 2 - 0, Musaev T. ⚽, Glebov K. (A),
86', Glebov K. ↓, Joao Victor ↑,
87', Krugovoy D. ↓, Henrique Carmo ↑,
90+5', Gurluk E. ↓, Savelyev M. ↑,

Preview

A leader and an outsider will face off in this match (ranked 3 and 14 in the zone Premier League (Relegation)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, CSKA won 3.

CSKA has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Orenburg has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, CSKA is the undisputed favorite.

There will not play in CSKA: Di Luciano R. (Knee Injury)

In the last 16 head-to-head matches, CSKA won 11 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 35:11. (average 2.2:0.7).

Including home matches between the teams, CSKA won 5 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 17:8. (average 2.4:1.1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CSKA Moscow
Russian Cup
26.11.25	CSKA Moscow - Dynamo Makhachkala	3:1 penalties ✺
Russian Premier League
22.11.25	Spartak Moscow - CSKA Moscow	1:0 ✺
08.11.25	Dynamo Makhachkala - CSKA Moscow	0:1 ✺
Russian Cup
05.11.25	Dynamo Makhachkala - CSKA Moscow	1:0 ✺
Russian Premier League
31.10.25	CSKA Moscow - Nizhny Novgorod	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 WLWLW
- FC Orenburg
Russian Cup
26.11.25	Krasnodar - Orenburg	4:0 ✺
Russian Premier League
22.11.25	Orenburg - Baltika Kaliningrad	0:0 ✺
09.11.25	Lokomotiv Moscow - Orenburg	1:0 ✺
Russian Cup
05.11.25	Orenburg - Krasnodar	1:3 ✺
Russian Premier League
02.11.25	Orenburg - Sochi	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 LTLLW

Latest Head to Head

Russian Premier League
21.07.25	Orenburg - CSKA Moscow	0:0
12.04.25	Orenburg - CSKA Moscow	0:2
04.08.24	CSKA Moscow - Orenburg	5:1
02.03.24	CSKA Moscow - Orenburg	1:1
Russian Cup
02.11.23	CSKA Moscow - Orenburg	3:1
Russian Premier League
25.08.23	Orenburg - CSKA Moscow	1:1
Russian Cup
26.07.23	Orenburg - CSKA Moscow	0:6

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