Match Info

Premier League - Round 9

Date: 17 September 2026, Thursday

Location: Gazovik Stadium (Orenburg)

Referee: Levnikov K. (Rus)

Where to Watch on TV:


Asia	Q Football Asia
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 2
Brazil	Claro TV+, Sky+, Vivo Play, Xsports
Russia	Match! Premier, Match TV, Sportbox.ru
Serbia	Arena Premium 2


	Orenburg		Krasnodar

	1	X	2
	4.73	3.91	1.81
	4.6	3.8	1.72
	4.82	4.11	1.77	Watch
	4.1	3.6	1.74
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.56 ↓ (5)	3.86 ↓ (4)	1.76 ↑ (1.58)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 1.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Orenburg
20.9%

Draw
24.8%

Krasnodar
54.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

18.5%

23.1%

58.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

17.9%

22.3%

60.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Orenburg has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.4%)

Krasnodar has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Orenburg than the current prediction. (-3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Krasnodar than the current prediction. (+6.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Krasnodar could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
8.3%	0%	91.7%

Orenburg - Krasnodar Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Orenburg (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.25 - Krasnodar (1.21) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Krasnodar will win (10 of 11 users predict this - 90.91%).
Confidence interval (95%): 73.92% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Orenburg (votes: 1 - 50%). Krasnodar (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Ovsyannikov B. (G) 22. Lukashov A. 5. Tataev A. 4. Khotulev D. (C) 26. Tsenov E. 80. Pykhcheev M. 11. Nazarenko E. 10. Thompson J. 8. Puebla D. 20. Rybchinskiy D. 30. Guzina G.	1. Agkatsev S. (G) 40. Vakhania I. 3. Tormena V. 5. Jubal Junior 15. Olaza L. 53. Chernikov A. 8. Douglas Augusto 23. Boselli J. 47. Utkin D. 11. Joao Batxi 9. Cordoba J. (C)
Substitutes
19. Alexandre Jesus 35. Degtev A. (G) 27. Golybin R. 7. Gonzalez J. 65. Ivashchenko I. 77. Kasadzhikov A. 38. Kasimov A. 14. Mejia R. 63. Minatulaev O. 2. Poroykov S. 44. Silva J. 3. Vedernikov D.	59. Khmarin A. 16. Koryakin A. (G) 6. Lenini K. 21. Ozdoev M. 17. Paltsev V. 98. Petrov S. 2. Rodriguez M. 10. Vorobyev D.
Coaches
Akhmetzyanov I.	Musaev M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
17', Tataev A. 🟨,
20', Khotulev D. 🟨,
31', Tormena V. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
62', Boselli J. ↓, Vorobyev D. ↑,
66', Utkin D. ↓, Ozdoev M. ↑,
68', Thompson J. ↓, Kasadzhikov A. ↑,
69', Pykhcheev M. ↓, Mejia R. ↑,
75', Puebla D. ↓, Golybin R. ↑,
75', Guzina G. ↓, Alexandre Jesus ↑,
77', Mejia R. 🟨,
79', Chernikov A. 🟨,
82', Vakhania I. ↓, Paltsev V. ↑,
82', Chernikov A. ↓, Lenini K. ↑,
86', Joao Batxi 🟨,
89', Cordoba J. 🟨,
90', Nazarenko E. 🟨,
90+3', Tataev A. ↓, Silva J. ↑,
90+4', Kasadzhikov A. 🟨,

Preview

Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 11 and 1).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Orenburg won 0.

Recent form of Orenburg has been disappointing (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Krasnodar is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In this match, Krasnodar is considered a favorite.

There will not play in Orenburg: Bolotov E. (Yellow Cards) Kul R. (Red Card) Mejia R. (Injury) Palacios J. (Yellow Cards) Rudakov M. (Inactive) Sivis M. (Red Card)

There will not play in Krasnodar: Krivtsov N. (Inactive)

In the last 19 head-to-head matches, Orenburg won 4 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 11 matches, and goals 20:36. (average 1.1:1.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Orenburg won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 11:11. (average 1.2:1.2).

Outrights of Russian Premier League for now

Krasnodar: 14.68% Orenburg: 0.84%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Krasnodar	10	6	3	1	16:10	6	21
6	Orenburg	10	2	6	2	11:10	1	12

Last Results with these Odds

Krasnodar - the odds 1.58 are the expected chance of winning is 58.45%, but this team recently wins 75% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Orenburg
Russian Premier League
12.09.26	Dynamo Moscow - Orenburg	1:0 ✺
06.09.26	Orenburg - Akron Tolyatti	2:2 ✺
Russian Cup
02.09.26	Orenburg - Rubin Kazan	1:2 penalties ✺
Russian Premier League
30.08.26	Spartak Moscow - Orenburg	1:1 ✺
22.08.26	Fakel - Orenburg	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.4 LTLTT
- FC Krasnodar
Russian Premier League
13.09.26	Krasnodar - Akron Tolyatti	1:1 ✺
05.09.26	Krylya Sovetov - Krasnodar	2:2 ✺
Russian Cup
01.09.26	Fakel - Krasnodar	1:2 penalties ✺
Russian Premier League
29.08.26	Krasnodar - Rostov	1:0 ✺
23.08.26	Dynamo Makhachkala - Krasnodar	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 TTWWW

Latest Head to Head

Russian Premier League
17.05.26	Krasnodar - Orenburg	3:0
Russian Cup
26.11.25	Krasnodar - Orenburg	4:0
05.11.25	Orenburg - Krasnodar	1:3
Russian Premier League
10.08.25	Orenburg - Krasnodar	0:1
17.05.25	Orenburg - Krasnodar	1:2
03.11.24	Krasnodar - Orenburg	4:0
03.12.23	Krasnodar - Orenburg	2:1

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