Match Info

Cymru South - Round 13

Date: 7 November 2025, Friday


	Caerau Ely		Cambrian United

	1	X	2
	2.82	3.4	2.15
	2.88	3.47	2.17
	2.73	3.74	2.26	Watch
	2.87	3.4	2.18
	2.75	3.8	2.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.81 ↑ (2.75)	3.56 ↓ (3.8)	2.2 ↓ (2.25)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 7.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Caerau Ely
32.6%

Draw
25.7%

Cambrian United
41.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.9%

24.6%

41.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.2%

25.9%

43.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Caerau Ely has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)

Cambrian United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Caerau Ely than the current prediction. (-0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cambrian United than the current prediction. (+2.1%)

Caerau Ely - Cambrian United Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
19', 1 - 0, Hywel D. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 3)
70', 1 - 1, Eason L. (Pen),
77', 2 - 1, Ashford J. ⚽,
86', 2 - 2, Wright J. ⚽,
87', 2 - 3, Birch D. ⚽,

Preview

One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Cymru Premier and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Cymru Premier).

Right now, both teams are showing solid form.

Cambrian United may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Caerau won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 4:9. (average 1:2.3).

Including home match between the teams, Caerau won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:2.

Last Results with these Odds

Cambrian United - the odds 2.25 are the expected chance of winning is 41.49%, but this team recently wins 33% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Caerau Ely
Welsh Cymru South
31.10.25	Afan Lido - Caerau Ely	3:2 ✺
21.10.25	Caerau Ely - Newport City	4:3 ✺
10.10.25	Cwmbran Celtic - Caerau Ely	0:2 ✺
27.09.25	Treowen Stars - Caerau Ely	0:5 ✺
17.09.25	Caerau Ely - Baglan Dragons	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.2 LWWWW
- Cambrian United
Welsh League Cup
04.11.25	Cambrian United - Briton Ferry Llansawel	1:0 ✺
Welsh Cymru South
01.11.25	Cambrian United - Cardiff Draconians	5:2 ✺
24.10.25	Pontypridd United - Cambrian United	2:4 ✺
10.10.25	Cambrian United - Trefelin	0:2 ✺
04.10.25	Carmarthen Town - Cambrian United	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.8 WWWLT

Latest Head to Head

Welsh Cymru South
12.04.25	Caerau Ely - Cambrian United	0:2
25.10.24	Cambrian United - Caerau Ely	2:2
16.03.24	Cambrian United - Caerau Ely	2:2
03.09.19	Cambrian United - Caerau Ely	3:0

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