Match Info

Cymru South - Round 9

Date: 4 October 2025, Saturday

Location: Richmond Park (Carmarthen)


	Carmarthen Town		Cambrian United

	1	X	2
	2.92	3.5	2.08
	3	3.65	2.09
	2.82	4.27	2.09
	2.9	3.3	2.12
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.91 ↑ (2.54)	3.68 ↓ (3.8)	2.1 ↓ (2.2)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Carmarthen Town
31.4%

Draw
24.9%

Cambrian United
43.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.4%

23.7%

40.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34.2%

22.9%

42.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Carmarthen Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4%)

Cambrian United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Carmarthen Town than the current prediction. (+2.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cambrian United than the current prediction. (-1.4%)

Carmarthen Town - Cambrian United Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

One of today’s top clashes will feature two teams fighting for the top spots (ranked 6 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Cymru Premier).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Carmarthen Town won 3.

Carmarthen Town has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Cambrian United is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Recently, Carmarthen Town has had a series of home games.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Carmarthen Town won 6 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 17:12. (average 1.7:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Carmarthen Town won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 12:3. (average 2.4:0.6).

Last Results with these Odds

Cambrian United - the odds 2.2 are the expected chance of winning is 40.9%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Carmarthen Town
Welsh Cymru South
27.09.25	Carmarthen Town - Newport City	1:0 ✺
12.09.25	Carmarthen Town - Treowen Stars	1:1 ✺
05.09.25	Pontypridd United - Carmarthen Town	3:1 ✺
25.08.25	Carmarthen Town - Baglan Dragons	0:0 ✺
22.08.25	Carmarthen Town - Aberystwyth Town	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 WTLTW
- Cambrian United
Welsh Cymru South
27.09.25	Baglan Dragons - Cambrian United	0:1 ✺
12.09.25	Cambrian United - Afan Lido	4:0 ✺
Welsh League Cup
10.09.25	Cambrian United - Cardiff Metropolitan	2:1 penalties ✺
Welsh Cymru South
05.09.25	Newport City - Cambrian United	2:1 ✺
25.08.25	Cambrian United - Ynyshir Albions	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.8 WWWLW

Latest Head to Head

Welsh FA Cup
15.02.25	Cambrian United - Carmarthen Town	3:1
Welsh Cymru South
18.01.25	Cambrian United - Carmarthen Town	2:1
26.08.24	Carmarthen Town - Cambrian United	4:1
Welsh League Cup
20.07.24	Carmarthen Town - Cambrian United	2:1
Welsh Cymru South
12.01.24	Cambrian United - Carmarthen Town	0:1
21.10.23	Carmarthen Town - Cambrian United	2:0
18.03.23	Carmarthen Town - Cambrian United	1:0

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