Match Info

Cymru South - Round 11

Date: 24 October 2025, Friday

Location: USW Sports Park (Pontypridd)


	Pontypridd United		Cambrian United

	1	X	2
	4.05	3.7	1.68
	3.93	3.8	1.75
	4.32	4.17	1.65	Watch
	4.16	3.68	1.71
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.12 ↓ (4.32)	3.84 ↓ (4.17)	1.7 ↑ (1.65)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 7.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Pontypridd United
22.2%

Draw
23.8%

Cambrian United
53.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

21.5%

22.3%

56.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

20.9%

21.7%

57.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Pontypridd United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)

Cambrian United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Pontypridd United than the current prediction. (-1.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cambrian United than the current prediction. (+4%)

Pontypridd United - Cambrian United Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 2)
14', 1 - 0, Edwards E. ⚽,
28', 2 - 0, Edwards E. ⚽,
33', 2 - 1, Bateman C. ⚽,
45+3', 2 - 2, Jones K. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
57', Jones J. 🟥,
58', 2 - 3, Eason L. (Pen),
63', Veale J. (Pen),
90', Selway H. 🟨,
90+3', 2 - 4, Eason L. ⚽,

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 12 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Cymru Premier).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Pontypridd won 2.

Pontypridd has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Cambrian United is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Pontypridd may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Cambrian United is a strong favorite.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Pontypridd won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 10:10. (average 1.7:1.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Pontypridd won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 5:6. (average 1.3:1.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Pontypridd United
Welsh FA Cup
17.10.25	Pontypridd United - Cefn Cribwr	3:1 ✺
Welsh Cymru South
11.10.25	Llantwit Major - Pontypridd United	2:0 ✺
03.10.25	Pontypridd United - Treowen Stars	5:2 ✺
26.09.25	Ammanford - Pontypridd United	1:1 ✺
12.09.25	Pontypridd United - Newport City	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.2 WLWTL
- Cambrian United
Welsh Cymru South
10.10.25	Cambrian United - Trefelin	0:2 ✺
04.10.25	Carmarthen Town - Cambrian United	0:0 ✺
27.09.25	Baglan Dragons - Cambrian United	0:1 ✺
12.09.25	Cambrian United - Afan Lido	4:0 ✺
Welsh League Cup
10.09.25	Cambrian United - Cardiff Metropolitan	2:1 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.7 LTWWW

Latest Head to Head

Welsh Cymru South
01.01.25	Cambrian United - Pontypridd United	3:3
09.08.24	Pontypridd United - Cambrian United	1:3
18.04.22	Pontypridd United - Cambrian United	2:1
15.04.22	Cambrian United - Pontypridd United	1:2
Welsh Division 1
01.12.18	Pontypridd United - Cambrian United	0:1
Welsh FA Cup
07.10.17	Pontypridd United - Cambrian United	2:1 ET

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