Match Info

Cymru South - Round 9

Date: 21 October 2025, Tuesday 🏁 Finished


	Caerau Ely		Newport City

	1	X	2
	1.92	3.55	3.2
	1.97	3.69	3.27
	2.35	4.10	2.45	Watch
	2.13	4.14	2.8
	2.08	3.6	2.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.09 ↑ (1.97)	3.82 ↑ (3.77)	2.9 ↓ (3.02)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Caerau Ely
44.1%

Draw
24.2%

Newport City
31.7%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

46%

24%

30%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.3%

23.3%

29.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Caerau Ely has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.9%)

Newport City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Caerau Ely than the current prediction. (+3.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Newport City than the current prediction. (-2.5%)

Caerau Ely - Newport City Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 1)
29', 1 - 0, Griffiths D. ⚽,
39', 2 - 0, Griffiths D. ⚽,
39', 3 - 0, Parker T. ⚽,
44', 3 - 1, Cooper L. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
51', 3 - 2, Kavanagh R. ⚽,
69', 4 - 2, McLean T. (Pen),
90+1', 4 - 3, Noyes R. ⚽,

Preview

The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Cymru Premier and 4).

Caerau is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Newport City has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Caerau could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Caerau won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 2:5. (average 1:2.5).

Including home match between the teams, Caerau won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Caerau Ely
Welsh Cymru South
10.10.25	Cwmbran Celtic - Caerau Ely	0:2 ✺
27.09.25	Treowen Stars - Caerau Ely	0:5 ✺
17.09.25	Caerau Ely - Baglan Dragons	2:1 ✺
12.09.25	Caerau Ely - Llantwit Major	0:0 ✺
05.09.25	Ammanford - Caerau Ely	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 WWWTL
- Newport City FC
Welsh Cymru South
10.10.25	Newport City - Trethomas Bluebirds	1:1 ✺
27.09.25	Carmarthen Town - Newport City	1:0 ✺
12.09.25	Pontypridd United - Newport City	1:3 ✺
05.09.25	Newport City - Cambrian United	2:1 ✺
25.08.25	Cwmbran Celtic - Newport City	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.7 TLWWT

Latest Head to Head

Welsh Cymru South
20.12.24	Newport City - Caerau Ely	3:1
16.08.24	Caerau Ely - Newport City	1:2

Upcoming Matches

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Caerau Ely
Welsh Cymru South
30.10.26	Caerphilly Athletic - Caerau Ely	✺
- Newport City FC
Welsh Cymru South
31.10.26	Llantwit Major - Newport City	✺

Caerau Ely - Newport City