Match Info

Cymru South - Round 12

Date: 31 October 2025, Friday


	Afan Lido		Caerau Ely

	1	X	2
	5.5	4.45	1.42
	5.53	4.21	1.52	Watch
	6.36	4.5	1.39
	5.75	4.5	1.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.79 ↑ (5.1)	4.42 ↑ (4.1)	1.43 ↓ (1.51)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 7.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Afan Lido
15.8%

Draw
20.6%

Caerau Ely
63.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

17.8%

22.1%

60.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

17.3%

21.5%

61.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Afan Lido has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2%)

Caerau Ely has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Afan Lido than the current prediction. (+1.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Caerau Ely than the current prediction. (-1.8%)

Afan Lido - Caerau Ely Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
8', 1 - 0, Parry B. ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 2)
49', 2 - 0, Evans I. ⚽,
54', 2 - 1, Gullick L. ⚽,
55', 2 - 2, Gullick L. ⚽,
76', 3 - 2, Griffiths L. ⚽,
90', 🟥,

Preview

This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 14 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Cymru Premier).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Afan Lido won 1.

Afan Lido is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Caerau is in great form and has won several matches in a row (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Afan Lido may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Caerau is the obvious favorite.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Afan Lido won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 8:13. (average 1.3:2.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Afan Lido won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 6:3. (average 2:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Afan Lido
Welsh Cymru South
24.10.25	Carmarthen Town - Afan Lido	1:0 ✺
10.10.25	Afan Lido - Baglan Dragons	1:1 ✺
04.10.25	Trefelin - Afan Lido	0:0 ✺
27.09.25	Afan Lido - Aberystwyth Town	0:1 ✺
16.09.25	Afan Lido - Cardiff Draconians	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.9 LTTLL
- Caerau Ely
Welsh Cymru South
21.10.25	Caerau Ely - Newport City	4:3 ✺
10.10.25	Cwmbran Celtic - Caerau Ely	0:2 ✺
27.09.25	Treowen Stars - Caerau Ely	0:5 ✺
17.09.25	Caerau Ely - Baglan Dragons	2:1 ✺
12.09.25	Caerau Ely - Llantwit Major	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.2 WWWWT

Latest Head to Head

Welsh Cymru South
22.11.24	Caerau Ely - Afan Lido	3:0
07.09.24	Afan Lido - Caerau Ely	2:2
01.04.24	Caerau Ely - Afan Lido	3:2
Welsh FA Cup
17.10.23	Caerau Ely - Afan Lido	4:0
Welsh Cymru South
08.08.23	Afan Lido - Caerau Ely	3:1
Welsh Division 1
14.03.17	Afan Lido - Caerau Ely	1:0

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