Match Info

Cymru South - Round 10

Date: 10 October 2025, Friday


	Cwmbran Celtic		Caerau Ely

	1	X	2
	6.9	4.35	1.36
	7.22	5.08	1.37
	15.08	6.56	1.17	Watch
	7.37	4.4	1.36
Avarage Now (Initially)	9.14 ↑ (5.44)	5.1 ↑ (4.5)	1.32 ↓ (1.44)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cwmbran Celtic
10.3%

Draw
18.4%

Caerau Ely
71.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

16.7%

20.1%

63.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

16%

19.3%

65.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cwmbran Celtic has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Cwmbran Celtic's form might have worsened.

Caerau Ely has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Caerau Ely's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cwmbran Celtic than the current prediction. (+5.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Cwmbran Celtic, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Caerau Ely than the current prediction. (-5.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Caerau Ely, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Cwmbran Celtic - Caerau Ely Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 2)
54', 0 - 1, Redhead O. ⚽,
62', 0 - 2, Hywel D. ⚽,

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 16 in the zone Relegation and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Cymru Premier).

Cwmbran Celtic is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Caerau is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Caerau may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Caerau is the undeniable favorite.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Cwmbran Celtic won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 10:9. (average 2.5:2.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Cwmbran Celtic won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 6:4. (average 3:2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Cwmbran Celtic
Welsh Cymru South
04.10.25	Cardiff Draconians - Cwmbran Celtic	2:1 ✺
26.09.25	Cwmbran Celtic - Trethomas Bluebirds	2:2 ✺
13.09.25	Aberystwyth Town - Cwmbran Celtic	2:0 ✺
06.09.25	Treowen Stars - Cwmbran Celtic	2:2 ✺
25.08.25	Cwmbran Celtic - Newport City	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13 LTLTT
- Caerau Ely
Welsh Cymru South
27.09.25	Treowen Stars - Caerau Ely	0:5 ✺
17.09.25	Caerau Ely - Baglan Dragons	2:1 ✺
12.09.25	Caerau Ely - Llantwit Major	0:0 ✺
05.09.25	Ammanford - Caerau Ely	3:2 ✺
25.08.25	Caerau Ely - Pontypridd United	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.7 WWTLW

Latest Head to Head

Welsh Cymru South
03.01.25	Caerau Ely - Cwmbran Celtic	1:2
05.10.24	Cwmbran Celtic - Caerau Ely	3:2
12.01.24	Caerau Ely - Cwmbran Celtic	4:2
21.10.23	Cwmbran Celtic - Caerau Ely	3:2

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