Match Info

Cymru South - Round 23

Date: 21 February 2026, Saturday


	Caerau Ely		Carmarthen Town

	1	X	2
	1.8	3.55	3.65
	1.82	3.66	3.59
	1.91	3.71	3.63
	1.8	3.3	3.6
	1.77	3.64	3.81
	1.68	3.8	4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.8 ↑ (1.67)	3.61 ↓ (3.83)	3.71 ↓ (4.22)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Caerau Ely
50.5%

Draw
25.1%

Carmarthen Town
24.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

54.7%

23.8%

21.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58.8%

25.6%

20.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Caerau Ely has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.2%)

Carmarthen Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Caerau Ely than the current prediction. (+8.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Caerau Ely, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Carmarthen Town than the current prediction. (-4.3%)

Caerau Ely - Carmarthen Town Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (3 - 4)
47', 0 - 1, McNamara C. (Own goal),
57', 0 - 2, Joda J. ⚽,
67', 1 - 2, Parker T. ⚽,
69', 1 - 3, Cummings L. ⚽,
72', 2 - 3, Parker T. ⚽,
86', 3 - 3, McLean T. (Penalty Awarded),
90+6', 3 - 4, Thomas L. ⚽,

Preview

A great opportunity to watch a clash of neighbouring teams in the table (ranked 5 and 7)

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Caerau may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Caerau is seen as the favorite.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Caerau won 0 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 6:10. (average 1.2:2).

Including home matches between the teams, Caerau won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 4:6. (average 2:3).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Caerau Ely	9	5	1	3	21:18	3	16
6	Carmarthen Town	9	4	2	3	20:19	1	14

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Caerau Ely
Welsh Cymru South
13.02.26	Cambrian United - Caerau Ely	3:0 ✺
07.02.26	Caerau Ely - Ammanford	3:1 ✺
Welsh FA Cup
31.01.26	Bangor 1876 - Caerau Ely	3:1 ✺
Welsh Cymru South
23.01.26	Trethomas Bluebirds - Caerau Ely	1:5 ✺
16.01.26	Caerau Ely - Trefelin	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 LWLWL
- Carmarthen Town
Welsh Cymru South
13.02.26	Carmarthen Town - Trefelin	0:2 ✺
30.01.26	Carmarthen Town - Llantwit Major	1:1 ✺
23.01.26	Afan Lido - Carmarthen Town	0:1 ✺
10.01.26	Carmarthen Town - Cwmbran Celtic	2:2 ✺
01.01.26	Aberystwyth Town - Carmarthen Town	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.9 LTWTT

Latest Head to Head

Welsh Cymru South
28.11.25	Carmarthen Town - Caerau Ely	1:1
25.01.25	Carmarthen Town - Caerau Ely	2:0
06.08.24	Caerau Ely - Carmarthen Town	2:2
10.02.24	Carmarthen Town - Caerau Ely	1:1
22.09.23	Caerau Ely - Carmarthen Town	2:4

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