Match Info

Cymru South - Round 18

Date: 1 January 2026, Thursday

Location: Park Avenue (Aberystwyth)


	Aberystwyth Town		Carmarthen Town

	1	X	2
	2.1	3.35	2.98
	2.1	3.61	3.16
	2.1	3.2	3
	2.09	3.35	3.08
	2.1	3.33	3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.1 ↓ (2.3)	3.37 ↓ (3.54)	3.04 ↑ (2.61)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Aberystwyth Town
43.2%

Draw
26.9%

Carmarthen Town
29.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.5%

25.7%

34.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.5%

24.4%

36.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Aberystwyth Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.7%)

Carmarthen Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Aberystwyth Town than the current prediction. (-5.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Aberystwyth Town that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Carmarthen Town than the current prediction. (+6.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Carmarthen Town could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Aberystwyth Town - Carmarthen Town Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

#ad

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
6', 0 - 1, Cummings L. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
52', 1 - 1, Smith C. ⚽,

Preview

Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 7 and 8).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Aberystwyth won 2.

Recent performances by Aberystwyth have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Carmarthen Town is on a losing streak (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Aberystwyth may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Aberystwyth won 6 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 33:32. (average 1.7:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Aberystwyth won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 12:17. (average 1.3:1.9).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Aberystwyth	8	6	1	1	22:8	14	19
6	Carmarthen Town	9	4	2	3	20:19	1	14

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Aberystwyth Town
Welsh Cymru South
26.12.25	Pontypridd United - Aberystwyth Town	0:1 ✺
20.12.25	Caerau Ely - Aberystwyth Town	1:0 ✺
29.11.25	Aberystwyth Town - Cambrian United	1:2 ✺
22.11.25	Aberystwyth Town - Ynyshir Albions	4:0 ✺
08.11.25	Aberystwyth Town - Trefelin	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.7 WLLWL
- Carmarthen Town
Welsh Cymru South
26.12.25	Carmarthen Town - Ammanford	0:1 ✺
13.12.25	Cambrian United - Carmarthen Town	3:0 ✺
28.11.25	Carmarthen Town - Caerau Ely	1:1 ✺
Welsh FA Cup
22.11.25	Carmarthen Town - Colwyn Bay	1:3 ✺
Welsh Cymru South
14.11.25	Trefelin - Carmarthen Town	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.2 LLTLL

Latest Head to Head

Welsh Cymru South
22.08.25	Carmarthen Town - Aberystwyth Town	1:0
Welsh League Cup
29.10.19	Carmarthen Town - Aberystwyth Town	0:3
Welsh Cymru Premier
18.10.19	Carmarthen Town - Aberystwyth Town	0:0
16.08.19	Aberystwyth Town - Carmarthen Town	3:2
26.04.19	Carmarthen Town - Aberystwyth Town	6:2
08.03.19	Aberystwyth Town - Carmarthen Town	3:2
30.11.18	Aberystwyth Town - Carmarthen Town	1:1

Upcoming Matches