Match Info

Cymru Premier - Round 6

Date: 6 September 2025, Saturday

Location: Cyncoed Campus (Cardiff)

Referee: Davies S. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


United-kingdom	BBC iPlayer app, BBC iPlayer, S4C Clic, S4C


	Cardiff Metropolitan		Colwyn Bay

	1	X	2
	1.9	3.3	3.4
	1.95	3.4	3.5
	2.02	3.49	3.66
	2.14	3.02	3.68	Watch
	1.96	3.38	3.63
	2.41	3.18	2.84
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.06 ↓ (2.37)	3.3 ↑ (3.18)	3.45 ↑ (2.9)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cardiff Metropolitan
45%

Draw
28.2%

Colwyn Bay
26.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39%

29.1%

31.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.3%

28.9%

31.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cardiff Metropolitan has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Cardiff Metropolitan's performance.

Colwyn Bay has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cardiff Metropolitan than the current prediction. (-5.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Cardiff Metropolitan that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Colwyn Bay than the current prediction. (+4.8%)

Cardiff Metropolitan - Colwyn Bay Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Cardiff Metropolitan (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Absalom K. (G) 16. Craven C. (C) 3. Edwards J. 20. John H. 10. Jones S. 8. Kabongo D. 19. Mwandwe L. 9. Rees L. 6. Reynolds R. 21. Soady B. 4. Walsh L.	45. Brown A. 7. Cumming J. 9. Davies J. 23. Edwards A. 6. Forde S. 3. Hart S. (C) 25. Kargbo U. 4. Peate N. 10. Robles L. 5. Sirrell L. 14. Williams A.
Substitutes
7. Evans E. 12. Lonergan R. 14. Morris J. 32. Rees O. 18. Richards M. 13. Seager S. (G) 22. Williams J.	26. Davies O. 38. Hoban B. 24. Hughes G. 22. Kargbo I. 41. Murphy L. (G) 11. Roberts E. 20. Williams A.
Coaches
Jenkins R.	Wilde M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
30', Soady B. 🟨,
39', 0 - 1, Robles L. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 3)
46', 1 - 1, Mwandwe L. ⚽,
52', 1 - 2, Davies J. ⚽,
57', Forde S. 🟨,
59', Rees L. ↓, Williams J. ↑,
65', John H. ↓, Evans E. ↑,
68', Cumming J. ↓, Hughes G. ↑,
71', Edwards J. 🟨,
73', 1 - 3, Robles L. ⚽,
76', Jones S. ↓, Morris J. ↑,
76', Kabongo D. ↓, Lonergan R. ↑,
78', Kargbo U. ↓, Kargbo I. ↑,
81', Robles L. ↓, Roberts E. ↑,
90+1', 1 - 4, Hart S. ⚽,

Preview

A great opportunity to watch a clash of neighbouring teams in the table (ranked 11 in the zone Cymru Premier (Relegation Group: ) and 9 in the zone Cymru Premier (Relegation Group: ))

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Cardiff Metropolitan might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Cardiff Metropolitan won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 6:5. (average 1.5:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Cardiff Metropolitan won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:2. (average 2:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Cardiff Metropolitan University FC
Welsh Cymru Premier
30.08.25	Flint Town United - Cardiff Metropolitan	4:2 ✺
25.08.25	Cardiff Metropolitan - Barry Town United	1:1 ✺
22.08.25	Haverfordwest County - Cardiff Metropolitan	2:2 ✺
15.08.25	Briton Ferry Llansawel - Cardiff Metropolitan	1:1 ✺
09.08.25	Cardiff Metropolitan - Caernarfon Town	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4 LTTTT
- Colwyn Bay
Welsh Cymru Premier
30.08.25	Colwyn Bay - Briton Ferry Llansawel	2:2 ✺
25.08.25	Colwyn Bay - The New Saints	1:1 ✺
22.08.25	Bala Town - Colwyn Bay	1:0 ✺
16.08.25	Barry Town United - Colwyn Bay	1:1 ✺
10.08.25	Colwyn Bay - Gap Connahs Quay	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19.6 TTLTT

Latest Head to Head

Welsh FA Cup
17.02.24	Cardiff Metropolitan - Colwyn Bay	3:2
Welsh Cymru Premier
30.09.23	Colwyn Bay - Cardiff Metropolitan	2:2
26.08.23	Cardiff Metropolitan - Colwyn Bay	1:0
Welsh FA Cup
16.10.21	Colwyn Bay - Cardiff Metropolitan	1:0

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