Match Info

Cymru Premier - Round 7

Date: 13 September 2025, Saturday

Location: Old Road (Briton Ferry)

Referee: McInch A. (Wal)


	Briton Ferry Llansawel		Caernarfon Town

	1	X	2
	2.7	3.5	2.1
	3.65	3.95	1.75
	3.65	4.1	1.78
	2.28	3.99	2.63	Watch
	3.63	4.1	1.78
	2.75	3.7	2.05
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.11 ↑ (2.79)	3.89 ↑ (3.63)	2.02 ↓ (2.19)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Briton Ferry Llansawel
29.9%

Draw
23.9%

Caernarfon Town
46.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.9%

25.3%

41.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.6%

24.3%

43.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Briton Ferry Llansawel has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3%)

Caernarfon Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Briton Ferry Llansawel than the current prediction. (+1.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Caernarfon Town than the current prediction. (-2.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Briton Ferry Llansawel - Caernarfon Town Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Caernarfon will win (votes: 4 - 100%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Caernarfon Town will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Fuller W. (G) 2. Bates L. 22. Bates M. 16. Davies R. 11. Hurford C. 3. Jenkins K. 12. Owen R. 8. Price T. 14. Sage E. 19. Smith C. 6. Williams K.	13. Thomas H. (G) 19. Bradley S. 9. Davies A. 21. Evans C. 8. Gosset D. 3. Jones M. 6. Lewis I. 23. Lock J. 2. Owen M. 27. Sears R. 15. Smith D.
Substitutes
20. Anderson O. 17. Bevan R. 7. Dyer R. 4. Gammond A. 15. Jefferies D. 21. Packer D. 1. Wilson R. (G)	12. Abadaki O. 17. Downey S. 39. Ellis O. 24. Harrison K. 5. Mooney P. 22. Roberts H. 10. Thomas D.
Coaches
Dyer A.	Davies R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
5', 1 - 0, Hurford C. ⚽,
19', 2 - 0, Price T. ⚽,
31', Hurford C. 🟨,
42', 2 - 1, Jones M. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 4)
49', 🟨,
50', 2 - 2, Davies A. ⚽,
52', 🟨,
59', Sage E. ↓, Gammond A. ↑,
66', 2 - 3, Davies A. ⚽,
67', Hurford C. ↓, Anderson O. ↑,
67', Davies R. ↓, Dyer R. ↑,
69', 2 - 4, Smith D. ⚽,
70', Smith C. ↓, Jefferies D. ↑,
73', Evans C. ↓, Abadaki O. ↑,
75', 2 - 5, Lock J. ⚽,
76', Bradley S. ↓, Downey S. ↑,
84', Gosset D. ↓, Ellis O. ↑,
84', Owen M. ↓, Mooney P. ↑,
84', Sears R. ↓, Harrison K. ↑,

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Cymru Premier (Championship Group: ) and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Cymru Premier (Championship Group: )).

Briton Ferry has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Caernarfon is in superb shape, having picked up a string of victories recently (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Briton Ferry may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Caernarfon is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Briton Ferry won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 2:4. (average 1:2).

Including home match between the teams, Briton Ferry won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Briton Ferry Llansawel
Welsh League Cup
10.09.25	Pen-y-Bont - Briton Ferry Llansawel	2:3 penalties ✺
Welsh Cymru Premier
30.08.25	Colwyn Bay - Briton Ferry Llansawel	2:2 ✺
25.08.25	Briton Ferry Llansawel - Haverfordwest County	0:1 ✺
22.08.25	Llanelli - Briton Ferry Llansawel	2:4 ✺
15.08.25	Briton Ferry Llansawel - Cardiff Metropolitan	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.6 WTLWT
- Caernarfon Town
Welsh League Cup
10.09.25	Caernarfon Town - Holywell Town	3:2 penalties ✺
Welsh Cymru Premier
07.09.25	Caernarfon Town - Barry Town United	3:1 ✺
30.08.25	Haverfordwest County - Caernarfon Town	1:1 ✺
25.08.25	Caernarfon Town - Bala Town	2:0 ✺
22.08.25	Flint Town United - Caernarfon Town	2:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9 WWTWW

Latest Head to Head

Welsh Cymru Premier
09.11.24	Briton Ferry Llansawel - Caernarfon Town	0:1
14.09.24	Caernarfon Town - Briton Ferry Llansawel	3:2

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