Match Info

ITALY: SERIE B - PLAY OFFS - FINAL

Date: 8 June 2023, Thursday

Location: Unipol Domus (Cagliari)

Referee: Mariani M. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bulgaria	Nova Sport
Croatia	SportKlub
France	beIN Sports
Greece	Nova Sports
Italy	Sky Sport, Sky Sport Uno
Serbia	SportKlub
Slovenia	SportKlub


	Cagliari		Bari

	1	X	2
	1.85	3.3	4.75	Watch
	1.8	3.25	4.75
	1.8	3.35	4.6
	1.81	3.48	5.22
	1.78	3.25	5
	1.8	3.46	4.7	Watch
	1.8	3.35	4.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.81 ↑ (1.77)	3.35 ↓ (3.52)	4.82 ↑ (4.63)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cagliari
52.2%

Draw
28.2%

Bari
19.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.1%

26.6%

20.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54%

26.2%

19.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cagliari has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)

Bari has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cagliari than the current prediction. (+1.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bari than the current prediction. (+0.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
85.7%	8.2%	6.1%

Cagliari - Bari Predictions

Users Predictions: Cagliari will win (42 of 49 users predict this - 85.71%).
Confidence interval (95%): 75.91% – 95.51%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Preview

1st leg.

Cagliari has the most likely position - 5 (100%), project points - 60, currently - 60, not chance of relegated, already of prom. playoffs, a chance of promoted (50%), not chance of win league.

Bari has the most likely position - 3 (100%), project points - 65, currently - 65, not chance of relegated, already of prom. playoffs, a chance of promoted (50%), not chance of win league.

This event has quality 44, very big importance 100, big match rating 72. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Cagliari in the last match got series victories and it is in a super good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Recent matches Bari is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Cagliari could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Cagliari is a favorite.

Last 4 head-to-head matches Cagliari won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 6-3.

Including matches at home between the teams Cagliari won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 2-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Cagliari Calcio
Italian Serie B
03.06.23	Parma - Cagliari	0:0 ✺
30.05.23	Cagliari - Parma	3:2 ✺
27.05.23	Cagliari - Venezia	2:1 ✺
19.05.23	Nuova Cosenza - Cagliari	0:1 ✺
13.05.23	Cagliari - Palermo	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.7 TWWWW
- AS Bari
Italian Serie B
02.06.23	Bari - Südtirol-Alto Adige	1:0 ✺
29.05.23	Südtirol-Alto Adige - Bari	1:0 ✺
19.05.23	Genoa - Bari	4:3 ✺
13.05.23	Bari - Reggina	1:0 ✺
06.05.23	Modena - Bari	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.7 WLLWT

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie B
18.02.23	Bari - Cagliari	1:1
17.09.22	Cagliari - Bari	0:1
06.05.16	Bari - Cagliari	0:3
19.12.15	Cagliari - Bari	2:1

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