Match Info

Serie B - Play Out - Final

Date: 15 May 2026, Friday

Location: Stadio San Nicola (Bari)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, IT tv Plus, Sky+, SportyNet, Zapping
Italy	Destination Calcio, LAB Channel
Russia	Telekanal Futbol
Slovakia	Sport TV2
United-kingdom	DCTV
Usa	DCTV, FOX One, Fox Soccer Plus


	Bari		Südtirol-Alto Adige

	1	X	2
	3.1	3	2.35	Watch
	3.05	2.92	2.42	Watch
	3.32	3.02	2.53
	3.33	2.65	2.59	Watch
	3.1	2.8	2.4
	3.15	2.94	2.44	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.18 ↑ (2.48)	2.89 ↓ (2.92)	2.46 ↓ (3.07)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bari
29.5%

Draw
32.4%

Südtirol-Alto Adige
38.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.6%

32%

30.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.9%

28.9%

33.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bari has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Bari's form might have worsened.

Südtirol-Alto Adige has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Südtirol-Alto Adige's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bari than the current prediction. (+4.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Südtirol-Alto Adige than the current prediction. (-4.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
30%	60%	10%

Bari - Südtirol Alto Adige Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Bari will win (votes: 3 - 30%). Südtirol will win (votes: 1 - 10%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 60%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 29.6% – 90.4%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.5 - Bari (1.55) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Bari (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Cerofolini M. (G) 13. Mantovani V. (C) 26. Odenthal C. 43. Nikolaou D. 28. Piscopo K. 19. Esteves T. 18. Maggiore G. 8. Pagano R. 93. Dorval M. 11. Moncini G. 17. Rao E.	31. Adamonis M. (G) 94. El Kaouakibi H. 19. Pietrangeli N. 34. Veseli F. 79. Molina S. 26. Frigerio M. R. 18. Tronchin S. 17. Casiraghi D. (C) 24. Davi S. 33. Merkaj S. 9. Pecorino E.
Substitutes
80. Artioli F. 10. Bellomo N. 27. Braunoder M. 90. Cuni M. 49. De Pieri G. 24. Dickmann L. 9. Gytkjaer C. 30. Mane M. 1. Pissardo M. (G) 25. Pucino R. 37. Stabile G. 66. Traore D.	1. Borra D. (G) 46. Brik D. 89. Crnigoj D. 23. Davi F. 4. Mancini D. 6. Martini J. 90. Odogwu R. 13. Sabatini C. 21. Tait F. 11. Tonin R. 99. Verdi S. 7. Zedadka K.
Coaches
Longo M.	Castori F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
45+2', Moncini G. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
54', Merkaj S. 🟨,
57', Cerofolini M. 🟨,
60', Tronchin S. 🟨,
62', Pagano R. ↓, Artioli F. ↑,
62', Esteves T. ↓, Braunoder M. ↑,
65', Frigerio M. R. ↓, Martini J. ↑,
72', Piscopo K. 🟨,
76', Moncini G. ↓, Cuni M. ↑,
76', Maggiore G. ↓, De Pieri G. ↑,
79', Merkaj S. ↓, Odogwu R. ↑,
86', Davi S. ↓, Zedadka K. ↑,
86', Tronchin S. ↓, Tait F. ↑,
87', Pecorino E. ↓, Crnigoj D. ↑,
87', Rao E. ↓, Bellomo N. ↑,
88', Bellomo N. 🟨,

Preview

First leg.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Bari won 0.

In recent matches, Bari has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Südtirol is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

There will not play in Bari: Darboe E. (Thigh Injury) Sibilli G. (Suspended)

There will not play in Südtirol: Bordon F. (Inactive) Cragno A. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Kofler R. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Bari: Cistana A. (Injury)

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Bari won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 8:10. (average 0.7:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Bari won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 7:8. (average 1.2:1.3).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Sudtirol	6	3	3	0	9:3	6	12

Last Results with these Odds

Südtirol-Alto Adige - the odds 3.07 are the expected chance of winning is 30.4%, but this team recently wins 38% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AS Bari
Italian Serie B
08.05.26	Catanzaro - Bari	2:3 ✺
01.05.26	Bari - Virtus Entella	2:0 ✺
24.04.26	Avellino - Bari	2:0 ✺
18.04.26	Bari - Venezia	0:3 ✺
11.04.26	Monza - Bari	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.2 WWLLL
- Südtirol-Alto Adige
Italian Serie B
08.05.26	Südtirol-Alto Adige - Juve Stabia	1:1 ✺
01.05.26	Sampdoria - Südtirol-Alto Adige	1:0 ✺
25.04.26	Südtirol-Alto Adige - Mantova	0:3 ✺
18.04.26	Spezia - Südtirol-Alto Adige	6:1 ✺
11.04.26	Südtirol-Alto Adige - Modena	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.5 TLLLT

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie B
15.02.26	Bari - Südtirol-Alto Adige	1:2
13.12.25	Südtirol-Alto Adige - Bari	0:0
13.05.25	Südtirol-Alto Adige - Bari	0:0
21.12.24	Bari - Südtirol-Alto Adige	0:1
24.02.24	Südtirol-Alto Adige - Bari	1:0
09.12.23	Bari - Südtirol-Alto Adige	2:1
02.06.23	Bari - Südtirol-Alto Adige	1:0

Bari - Südtirol-Alto Adige: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide