Match Info

ITALY: SERIE B - ROUND 38

Date: 19 May 2023, Friday

Location: Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla (Cosenza)

Referee: Abisso R. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	Sky Sport


	Nuova Cosenza		Cagliari

	1	X	2
	4.2	3.75	1.83	Watch
	4	3.6	1.83
	4	3.85	1.8
	4.18	3.94	1.86
	3.3	3.4	2.1
	3.98	3.76	1.85	Watch
	4	3.65	1.83
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.95 ↑ (3.42)	3.71 ↑ (3.43)	1.87 ↓ (2.12)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Nuova Cosenza
23.9%

Draw
25.5%

Cagliari
50.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

27.7%

27.6%

44.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28%

27.9%

44.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Nuova Cosenza has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.8%)

Cagliari has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Cagliari's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nuova Cosenza than the current prediction. (+4.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cagliari than the current prediction. (-6.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Cagliari, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
21.1%	21.1%	57.9%

Nuova Cosenza - Cagliari Predictions

Users Predictions: 19 users predict this event. Cosenza will win (votes: 4 - 21.1%). Cagliari will win (votes: 11 - 57.9%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 21.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Cagliari: 35.7% – 80.1%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Preview

Cosenza has the most likely position - 16 (57.41%), project points - 41, currently - 40, a chance of relegated (50%), not chance of prom. playoffs.

Cagliari has the most likely position - 6 (53.57%), project points - 59, currently - 57, not chance of relegated, already of prom. playoffs, a chance of promoted (23%), not chance of win league.

This event has small quality 29, importance 62, match rating 45. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Recent matches Cosenza is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Cagliari is in a first-rate shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Cagliari will have a mini benefit in this match.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Cosenza won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 0-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Nuova Cosenza
Italian Serie B
13.05.23	Ascoli - Nuova Cosenza	1:1 ✺
06.05.23	Nuova Cosenza - Venezia	1:1 ✺
01.05.23	Brescia - Nuova Cosenza	2:1 ✺
22.04.23	Perugia - Nuova Cosenza	0:0 ✺
15.04.23	Nuova Cosenza - Cittadella	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.3 TTLTT
- Cagliari Calcio
Italian Serie B
13.05.23	Cagliari - Palermo	2:1 ✺
05.05.23	Perugia - Cagliari	0:5 ✺
30.04.23	Cagliari - Ternana	2:1 ✺
22.04.23	Parma - Cagliari	2:1 ✺
15.04.23	Cagliari - Frosinone	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.3 WWWLT

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie B
26.12.22	Cagliari - Nuova Cosenza	2:0

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