Match Info

ITALY: SERIE B - ROUND 24

Date: 11 February 2023, Saturday

Location: Unipol Domus (Cagliari)

Referee: Sozza S. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	Sky Sport


	Cagliari		Benevento

	1	X	2
	2.1	3.25	3.75	Watch
	2	3.2	3.8
	1.9	3.2	4.3
	2.1	3.2	4.17
	1.95	3.25	4
	2.04	3.38	3.68	Watch
	2.1	3.15	3.65
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.03 ↑ (1.75)	3.23 ↓ (3.5)	3.91 ↓ (4.76)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cagliari
46.6%

Draw
29.2%

Benevento
24.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.5%

26.8%

19.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55.6%

25.8%

19%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cagliari has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Cagliari's form might have worsened.

Benevento has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cagliari than the current prediction. (+9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Cagliari, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Benevento than the current prediction. (-5.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Benevento, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	16.7%	33.3%

Cagliari - Benevento Predictions

Users Predictions: 18 users predict this event. Cagliari will win (votes: 9 - 50%). Benevento will win (votes: 6 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 16.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Cagliari: 26.9% – 73.1%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

Team outsider and a mid-table team will meet during this match (ranked 9 and 19 in the zone Relegation).

Cagliari has the most likely position - 7 (10%), has project points - 54, has currently - 32, has a very small chance of relegated (2%), has a good chance of prom. playoffs (52%), has a small chance of promoted (13%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Benevento has the most likely position - 19 (12.9%), has project points - 43, has currently - 23, has a chance of relegated (44%), has a very small chance of prom. playoffs (5%), has a very small chance of promoted (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

This event has quality 35, importance 40, match rating 37. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Cagliari is in undoubted good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Benevento has a chain of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Cagliari could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Cagliari is a favorite.

Last 5 head-to-head matches Cagliari won 4 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 10-5.

Including matches at home between the teams Cagliari won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 3-3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Cagliari Calcio
Italian Serie B
03.02.23	Modena - Cagliari	2:0 ✺
27.01.23	Cagliari - SPAL	2:1 ✺
21.01.23	Cittadella - Cagliari	0:0 ✺
14.01.23	Cagliari - Como	2:0 ✺
26.12.22	Cagliari - Nuova Cosenza	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 LWTWW
- Benevento Calcio
Italian Serie B
04.02.23	Benevento - Venezia	1:2 ✺
29.01.23	Frosinone - Benevento	1:0 ✺
21.01.23	Benevento - Genoa	1:2 ✺
15.01.23	Nuova Cosenza - Benevento	1:1 ✺
26.12.22	Benevento - Perugia	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.1 LLLTL

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie B
10.09.22	Benevento - Cagliari	0:2
Italian Serie A
09.05.21	Benevento - Cagliari	1:3
06.01.21	Cagliari - Benevento	1:2
18.03.18	Benevento - Cagliari	1:2
25.10.17	Cagliari - Benevento	2:1

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