Match Info

ITALY: SERIE B - ROUND 21

Date: 21 January 2023, Saturday

Location: Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato (Cittadella)

Referee: Rutella D. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	Sky Sport, Sky Sport Uno


	Cittadella		Cagliari

	1	X	2
	2.63	3	2.7	Watch
	2.65	2.95	2.75
	2.85	2.85	2.7
	2.7	2.9	2.8
	2.89	2.96	2.91
	2.8	2.8	2.8
	2.76	2.97	2.76	Watch
	2.65	3	2.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.74 ↑ (2.7)	2.93 ↑ (2.9)	2.77 ↓ (2.8)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cittadella
34.2%

Draw
32%

Cagliari
33.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.5%

32.2%

33.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35%

32.7%

32.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cittadella has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)

Cagliari has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cittadella than the current prediction. (+0.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cagliari than the current prediction. (-1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
21.1%	57.9%	21.1%

Cittadella - Cagliari Predictions

Users Predictions: 19 users predict this event. Cittadella will win (votes: 4 - 21.1%). Cagliari will win (votes: 4 - 21.1%). It will Tie (votes: 11 - 57.9%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 35.7% – 80.1%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

Outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 17 in the zone Serie B (Play Out) and 8 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie B (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

Cittadella has the most likely position - 18 (12.02%), has project points - 44, has currently - 22, has a chance of relegated (42%), has a small chance of prom. playoffs (8%), has a very small chance of promoted (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Cagliari has the most likely position - 5 (10.89%), has project points - 55, has currently - 28, has a very small chance of relegated (3%), has a good chance of prom. playoffs (57%), has a chance of promoted (18%), has a very small chance of win league (2%).

This event has quality 32, importance 43, match rating 37. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Cittadella is in poor shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Cagliari is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

The chances to win of two teams are almost the same in this match.

Last 2 head-to-head matches Cittadella won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 2-5.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AS Cittadella
Italian Serie B
14.01.23	Pisa - Cittadella	1:2 ✺
26.12.22	Como - Cittadella	2:0 ✺
18.12.22	Cittadella - Südtirol-Alto Adige	0:2 ✺
11.12.22	Benevento - Cittadella	1:0 ✺
08.12.22	Cittadella - Bari	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.9 WLLLL
- Cagliari Calcio
Italian Serie B
14.01.23	Cagliari - Como	2:0 ✺
26.12.22	Cagliari - Nuova Cosenza	2:0 ✺
18.12.22	Palermo - Cagliari	2:1 ✺
11.12.22	Cagliari - Perugia	3:2 ✺
07.12.22	Ternana - Cagliari	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 WWLWL

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie B
21.08.22	Cagliari - Cittadella	2:1
Coppa Italia
15.12.21	Cagliari - Cittadella	3:1

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