Match Info

ITALY: SERIE B - ROUND 21

Date: 21 January 2023, Saturday

Location: Stadio Ciro Vigorito (Benevento)

Referee: Serra M. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bulgaria	Nova Sport
Croatia	SportKlub
Italy	Sky Sport
Serbia	SportKlub
Slovenia	SportKlub


	Benevento		Genoa

	1	X	2
	3.3	3.1	2.2	Watch
	3.4	3	2.25
	3.65	2.9	2.2
	3.4	2.95	2.23
	3.77	3.06	2.3
	3.6	2.9	2.25
	3.7	3	2.22	Watch
	3.4	3.05	2.23
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.53 ↑ (3.3)	3 ↑ (2.88)	2.24 ↓ (2.42)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Benevento
26.6%

Draw
31.4%

Genoa
42%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

28.5%

32.6%

38.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28.6%

32.7%

38.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Benevento has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.9%)

Genoa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Benevento than the current prediction. (+2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Genoa than the current prediction. (-3.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
3.8%	26.9%	69.2%

Benevento - Genoa Predictions

Users Predictions: 26 users predict this event. Benevento will win (votes: 1 - 3.8%). Genoa will win (votes: 18 - 69.2%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 26.9%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Genoa: 51.5% – 86.9%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

Watch a game between a team from the middle of a tournament table and a team which is a leader now (ranked 15 and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie B (Play Offs: Semi~finals)).

Benevento has the most likely position - 16 (7.9%), has project points - 47, has currently - 23, has a chance of relegated (23%), has a chance of prom. playoffs (19%), has a very small chance of promoted (3%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Genoa has the most likely position - 2 (28.11%), has project points - 65, has currently - 36, has a very small chance of relegated (<1%), has a chance of prom. playoffs (49%), has a good chance of promoted (58%), has a chance of win league (18%).

This event has quality 37, importance 51, match rating 44. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Benevento won 2.

Recent matches Benevento is playing mutable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Genoa is in a first-class shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Genoa could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Genoa will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 6 head-to-head matches Benevento won 2 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 7-6.

Including matches at home between the teams Benevento won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 3-0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Benevento Calcio
Italian Serie B
15.01.23	Nuova Cosenza - Benevento	1:1 ✺
26.12.22	Benevento - Perugia	0:2 ✺
18.12.22	Modena - Benevento	1:1 ✺
11.12.22	Benevento - Cittadella	1:0 ✺
08.12.22	Parma - Benevento	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.5 TLTWW
- Genoa CFC
Italian Serie B
16.01.23	Genoa - Venezia	1:0 ✺
Coppa Italia
12.01.23	Roma - Genoa	1:0 ✺
Italian Serie B
26.12.22	Bari - Genoa	1:2 ✺
18.12.22	Genoa - Frosinone	1:0 ✺
11.12.22	Ascoli - Genoa	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.9 WLWWT

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie B
20.08.22	Genoa - Benevento	0:0
Coppa Italia
08.08.22	Genoa - Benevento	3:2
Italian Serie A
21.04.21	Genoa - Benevento	2:2
20.12.20	Benevento - Genoa	2:0
12.05.18	Benevento - Genoa	1:0
23.12.17	Genoa - Benevento	1:0

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