Match Info

ITALY: SERIE B - ROUND 19

Date: 26 December 2022, Monday

Location: Stadio Ciro Vigorito (Benevento)

Referee: Piccinini M. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	Sky Sport


	Benevento		Perugia

	1	X	2
	2.2	3.1	3.6	Watch
	2.15	3.1	3.5
	2.15	3.05	3.7
	2.19	2.95	3.5
	2.2	3.13	3.92
	2.15	3	3.7
	2.18	3.02	3.7	Watch
	2.2	3.1	3.55
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.18 ↑ (1.91)	3.06 ↓ (3.18)	3.65 ↓ (3.95)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Benevento
43.3%

Draw
30.8%

Perugia
25.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48%

28.8%

23.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.3%

28%

22.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Benevento has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.7%)

Perugia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Benevento than the current prediction. (+6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Benevento, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Perugia than the current prediction. (-3.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
64.7%	23.5%	11.8%

Benevento - Perugia Predictions

Users Predictions: 34 users predict this event. Benevento will win (votes: 22 - 64.7%). Perugia will win (votes: 4 - 11.8%). It will Tie (votes: 8 - 23.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Benevento: 48.6% – 80.8%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

In this match we will have an opportunity to see a game between team from the middle of a tournament table and a the outsider (ranked 12 and 20 in the zone Relegation).

Benevento has the most likely position - 10 (7.97%), has project points - 51, has currently - 22, has a small chance of relegated (10%), has a chance of prom. playoffs (33%), has a small chance of promoted (9%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Perugia has the most likely position - 20 (18.56%), has project points - 40, has currently - 16, has a good chance of relegated (59%), has a very small chance of prom. playoffs (3%), has a very small chance of promoted (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

This event has quality 31, importance 40, match rating 35. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Benevento won 4.

Two teams are playing changeable.

Benevento could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Benevento will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 14 head-to-head matches Benevento won 6 matches, drawn 5 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 14-14.

Including matches at home between the teams Benevento won 3 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 5-7.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Benevento Calcio
Italian Serie B
18.12.22	Modena - Benevento	1:1 ✺
11.12.22	Benevento - Cittadella	1:0 ✺
08.12.22	Parma - Benevento	0:1 ✺
04.12.22	Benevento - Palermo	0:1 ✺
27.11.22	Reggina - Benevento	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.3 TWWLT
- Perugia Calcio
Italian Serie B
19.12.22	Perugia - Venezia	2:1 ✺
11.12.22	Cagliari - Perugia	3:2 ✺
08.12.22	Perugia - SPAL	0:0 ✺
04.12.22	Nuova Cosenza - Perugia	0:0 ✺
27.11.22	Perugia - Genoa	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.8 WLTTW

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie B
26.02.22	Perugia - Benevento	0:1
03.10.21	Benevento - Perugia	0:0
03.03.20	Perugia - Benevento	1:2
19.10.19	Benevento - Perugia	1:0
06.04.19	Perugia - Benevento	2:4
24.11.18	Benevento - Perugia	2:1
Coppa Italia
12.08.17	Benevento - Perugia	0:4

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