Match Info

Liga 1 - Clausura - Round 1

Date: 18 July 2025, Friday

Location: Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega (Cusco)

Referee: Alarcon J. (Per)

Where to Watch on TV:


Mexico	Fanatiz
Peru	Liga 1 Play
Usa	Fanatiz


	Deportivo Garcilaso		Los Chankas

	1	X	2
	1.95	3.1	4	Watch
	1.8	3.3	3.7
	2.05	3.3	3.7	Watch
	1.98	3.35	3.89
	2.13	3.05	3.67	Watch
	1.85	3.3	3.9
	2.05	3.42	3.85	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.97 ↓ (2.04)	3.26 ↓ (3.31)	3.82 ↑ (3.71)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Deportivo Garcilaso
47.1%

Draw
28.5%

Los Chankas
24.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.1%

28.5%

25.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50%

30.9%

23.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Deportivo Garcilaso has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1%)

Los Chankas has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Deportivo Garcilaso than the current prediction. (+2.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Los Chankas than the current prediction. (-1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
37.5%	50%	12.5%

Deportivo Garcilaso - Los Chankas Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Deportivo Garcilaso will win (votes: 3 - 37.5%). Los Chankas will win (votes: 1 - 12.5%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 50%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 15.4% – 84.6%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Zubczuk P. (G) 55. Canales E. 13. Lojas J. (C) 2. Salazar A. 18. Nunez O. 25. Paucar E. 16. Beltran C. 26. Celi Y. 11. Erustes P. 19. Naya E. 10. Sandoval K.	1. Camacho H. (G) 4. Mogollon E. 33. Pimienta C. 2. Gonzalez H. 26. Gonzales D. 5. Palomino J. 8. Quiroz A. 10. Torres F. 18. Takeuchi O. 9. Camargo I. 7. Manzaneda J.
Substitutes
4. Avendano F. 31. Barbieri J. (G) 7. Bazan J. 6. Garrafa Tapia I. A. 23. Moreno X. 28. Valer J. F. 33. Villacorta S.	27. Bueno P. 6. Guivin Tanta J. 31. Quintana A. 12. Sanchez A. (G) 35. Sanchez K. 23. Santiago G. 3. Schmidt F. 21. Zamalloa F.
Coaches
Bustos C.	Paolella W.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
22', Lojas J. 🟨,
33', 1 - 0, Sandoval K. ⚽, Beltran C. (A),
2nd Half (2 - 0)
49', 2 - 0, Sandoval K. ⚽, Erustes P. (A),
62', Quiroz A. ↓, Santiago G. ↑,
63', 3 - 0, Naya E. ⚽, Erustes P. (A),
69', Canales E. 🟨,
77', Celi Y. ↓, Garrafa Tapia I. A. ↑,
77', Naya E. ↓, Bazan J. ↑,
82', Mogollon E. ↓, Zamalloa F. ↑,
87', Paucar E. ↓, Moreno X. ↑,
87', Sandoval K. ↓, Gallardo J. ↑,
90+1', Erustes P. ↓, Valer J. F. ↑,

Preview

Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 8 and 11).

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Los Chankas may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Deportivo Garcilaso will hold a modest advantage in this match.

There will not play in Los Chankas: Velarde C. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Los Chankas: Quintana A. (Injury) Saravia F. (Injury)

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Deportivo Garcilaso won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 3:4. (average 1:1.3).

Including home match between the teams, Deportivo Garcilaso won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Deportivo Garcilaso
Peruvian Liga 1
06.07.25	Deportivo Garcilaso - Universitario de Deportes	0:1 ✺
28.06.25	ADT Tarma - Deportivo Garcilaso	0:0 ✺
21.06.25	Deportivo Garcilaso - Ayacucho	2:1 ✺
15.06.25	Sporting Cristal - Deportivo Garcilaso	3:2 ✺
25.05.25	Deportivo Garcilaso - Juan Pablo II College	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.6 LTWLW
- CD Los Chankas
Peruvian Liga 1
12.07.25	Universitario de Deportes - Los Chankas	0:0 ✺
04.07.25	Los Chankas - ADT Tarma	1:1 ✺
27.06.25	Ayacucho - Los Chankas	1:2 ✺
21.06.25	Los Chankas - Sporting Cristal	3:1 ✺
14.06.25	Juan Pablo II College - Los Chankas	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 36.3 TTWWL

Latest Head to Head

Peruvian Liga 1
10.02.25	Los Chankas - Deportivo Garcilaso	2:2
29.09.24	Los Chankas - Deportivo Garcilaso	1:0
28.04.24	Deportivo Garcilaso - Los Chankas	1:1

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