Match Info

ENGLAND: LEAGUE ONE - ROUND 16

Date: 28 October 2023, Saturday


	Cambridge United		Carlisle United

	1	X	2
	2.38	3.2	3.2
	2.37	3.1	3
	2.3	3.2	3.25	Watch
	2.45	3.25	3.23
	2.43	3.18	3.27
	2.3	3.2	3.1
	2.33	3.24	3.08	Watch
	2.33	3.15	3.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.36 ↑ (2.09)	3.19 ↓ (3.28)	3.15 ↓ (3.48)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cambridge United
40.2%

Draw
29.7%

Carlisle United
30.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.7%

28.4%

26.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.4%

28%

26.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cambridge United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.5%)

Carlisle United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cambridge United than the current prediction. (+5.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Cambridge United, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Carlisle United than the current prediction. (-3.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
41.7%	16.7%	41.7%

Cambridge United - Carlisle United Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Cambridge will win (votes: 5 - 41.7%). Carlisle will win (votes: 5 - 41.7%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 16.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Cambridge: 13.8% – 69.6%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Stevens J. (G) 2. Bennett L. 6. Bennett R. 5. Morrison M. 3. Andrew D. 10. Lankester J. 24. Cousins J. 4. Digby P. 7. Brophy J. 23. Ahadme G. 14. Kaikai S.	1. Holy T. (G) 26. Barclay B. 5. Lavelle S. (C) 22. Mellish J. 3. Armer J. 8. Guy C. 4. Moxon O. 24. Maguire S. 11. Butterworth D. 7. Gibson J. 14. Garner J.
Substitutes
27. Gordon J. 20. Haunstrup B. 16. Ibsen Rossi Z. 17. Janneh S. 19. May A. 9. Okenabirhie F. 8. Thomas G.	12. Ablade T. 25. Andresson J. (G) 9. Edmondson R. 10. McCalmont A. 27. Plange L. 19. Robinson J. 17. Whelan C.
Coaches
Bonner M.	Simpson P.

Preview

In this match we will have an opportunity to see a game between team from the middle of a tournament table and a the outsider (ranked 17 and 20).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Cambridge won 2.

Cambridge is in unsatisfactory shape (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recent matches Carlisle is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Cambridge could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Cambridge will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 14 head-to-head matches Cambridge won 5 matches, drawn 6 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 26-16.

Including matches at home between the teams Cambridge won 2 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 13-8.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Cambridge United
English League One
24.10.23	Cambridge United - Portsmouth	0:0 ✺
21.10.23	Cheltenham Town - Cambridge United	1:0 ✺
English EFL Trophy
17.10.23	Cambridge United - Colchester United	1:2 ✺
English League One
14.10.23	Cambridge United - Shrewsbury Town	1:1 ✺
09.10.23	Burton Albion - Cambridge United	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.7 TLLTL
- Carlisle United
English League One
24.10.23	Carlisle United - Burton Albion	2:1 ✺
21.10.23	Portsmouth - Carlisle United	1:0 ✺
14.10.23	Carlisle United - Leyton Orient	0:1 ✺
English EFL Trophy
10.10.23	Carlisle United - Nottingham Forest U21	0:2 ✺
English League One
07.10.23	Bolton Wanderers - Carlisle United	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.8 WLLLW

Latest Head to Head

English League Two
27.03.21	Carlisle United - Cambridge United	1:2
12.09.20	Cambridge United - Carlisle United	3:0
29.02.20	Cambridge United - Carlisle United	1:2
23.11.19	Carlisle United - Cambridge United	0:0
23.03.19	Carlisle United - Cambridge United	2:2
08.09.18	Cambridge United - Carlisle United	1:2
24.03.18	Carlisle United - Cambridge United	1:1

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