Match Info

NETHERLANDS: EREDIVISIE - ROUND 19

Date: 29 January 2023, Sunday

Location: Cambuur Stadion (Leeuwarden)

Referee: Manschot J. (Ned)

Where to Watch on TV:


Netherlands	ESPN


	Cambuur		Fortuna Sittard

	1	X	2
	2.4	3.4	3	Watch
	2.37	3.3	3
	2.38	3.55	2.85
	2.41	3.25	2.85
	2.44	3.44	3.06
	2.4	3.25	2.88	Watch
	2.36	3.48	2.93	Watch
	2.45	3.4	2.95
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.4 ↓ (2.75)	3.38 ↑ (3.3)	2.94 ↑ (2.45)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cambuur
39.6%

Draw
28.1%

Fortuna Sittard
32.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.8%

28.2%

38%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34.3%

27.8%

37.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cambuur has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Cambuur's performance.

Fortuna Sittard has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Fortuna Sittard might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cambuur than the current prediction. (-5.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Cambuur that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fortuna Sittard than the current prediction. (+5.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Fortuna Sittard could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
42.1%	0%	57.9%

Cambuur - Fortuna Sittard Predictions

Users Predictions: 19 users predict this event. Cambuur will win (votes: 8 - 42.1%). Fortuna Sittard will win (votes: 11 - 57.9%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Fortuna Sittard: 35.7% – 80.1%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

A team from the mid-table and outsider will play in this match (ranked 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Eerste Divisie and 12).

Cambuur has the most likely position - 18 (38.86%), has project points - 26, has currently - 12, has a good chance of relegated (79%), has a very small chance of qualify for ucl (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Fortuna Sittard has the most likely position - 14 (15.37%), has project points - 35, has currently - 19, has a chance of relegated (21%), has a very small chance of qualify for ucl (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

This event has quality 38, importance 41, match rating 40. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Cambuur won 2.

Both teams are in bad shape now.

Fortuna Sittard could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Recently Fortuna Sittard have a series of home games.

In this match the chances to win of both teams are almost equal.

Last 11 head-to-head matches Cambuur won 3 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 11-13.

Including matches at home between the teams Cambuur won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 4-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Leeuwarden Cambuur
Dutch Eredivisie
26.01.23	Groningen - Cambuur	0:1 ✺
21.01.23	Cambuur - Sparta Rotterdam	0:3 ✺
15.01.23	Emmen - Cambuur	0:0 ✺
Dutch KNVB Beker
11.01.23	De Treffers - Cambuur	1:0 ✺
Dutch Eredivisie
08.01.23	Cambuur - Volendam	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.6 WLTLL
- Fortuna Sittard
Dutch Eredivisie
25.01.23	Fortuna Sittard - Heerenveen	2:0 ✺
22.01.23	AZ Alkmaar - Fortuna Sittard	3:1 ✺
15.01.23	Fortuna Sittard - PSV Eindhoven	2:2 ✺
07.01.23	Fortuna Sittard - Go Ahead Eagles	0:2 ✺
Club Friendly
08.12.22	Fortuna Sittard - Livingston	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.8 WLTLL

Latest Head to Head

Dutch Eredivisie
20.08.22	Fortuna Sittard - Cambuur	1:4
26.02.22	Cambuur - Fortuna Sittard	2:1
16.10.21	Fortuna Sittard - Cambuur	1:0
Dutch KNVB Beker
19.12.18	Fortuna Sittard - Cambuur	2:1
Dutch Eerste Divisie
23.03.18	Fortuna Sittard - Cambuur	3:2
17.11.17	Cambuur - Fortuna Sittard	1:0
10.02.17	Cambuur - Fortuna Sittard	1:1

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